How real are polls and reports?

Singapore is the most desired country for migration and its population could go up by 200% if those who wanted to come are allowed to come. But the US is still the most preferred country to migrate to. Wow, we are number one again. If one ask anyone from a third world poor country if they want to migrate to a first world country, would they say no? If the survey were to be conducted in India or China, at least 1% would say they want to come to Singapore and we would have 20 million instant citizens. If the survey were to ask the respondents about Australia and that there is no racist policy to keep them out, at least 50 million each from India and China would be there in no time. So how much good can we attach to a survey like this? And of course as been pointed out, if 10 million want to come here, our population will be inflated by 200%. If 30 million want to go to the US, its population will only go up by 10%. In percentage term the US is less favoured than us. It is like surveying 5 people and claim that 100% of the respondent say yes.

So, littering by fliers is ok?

If the ST is the official mouthpiece of the govt, then littering by fliers is ok. I say if. Of course ST is not the mouthpiece of the govt and its position is not necessarily the position of the govt. It just exercises its right to express its view and position on any issue it wants. This morning's editorial on littering by housing agent is blaming the Singaporeans for being too well taken cared of, a spoilt lot. It asked, why can't the heartlanders just pick up the fliers and put them into the dustbins? Let's see, 3 or 4 fliers daily, at different times, will mean that the heartlanders will have to perform this cleansing daily a few times if they did not want the flier/litter to adorn their entrance. Why should heartlanders be responsible for clearing the fliers left by someone else? They are not simply nuisance as I have said. What if all the spoilt heartlanders just let the fliers accumulate in the corridors? It is not a matter of just the cleaners to come cleaning. It is a slum in the making. The heartland will become another third world slum, with litters everywhere. Is this the standard that we want, permitting litters to be strewn everywhere? Heh heh, I love the idea.

Why need foreign talent in finance?

Look at the three local banks that we have, big strong and financially sound. These banks were built, brick by brick, under conservative and traditional principles and practices of banking. They grow in a slow pace, under strict regulations and scrutiny. Their conservative and traditional practices have lagged them behind the multinational American and European banks, the Citis, Goldmans, the Morgans, the Lloyds, Barclays and the UBS. These American and European banks grew rapidly during the period of liberalisation and deregulations. But then many grew big fast and quick and went pop fast and quick as well. In banking and finance, the hare and tortoise race is still applicable in many ways. With the benefits of hindsight, the Americans and Europeans are trying to rein in the free wheeling days when high finance is nothing more than a casino and selling snake oils. Liberalisation and deregulation were what they demanded and what they got, and the whole system nearly collapsed with trillions lost across the world. The situation is best summed up by an article in the ST by Howard Davis, former Chairman of Britain’s Financial Services Authority and now director of the London School of Economics. He quoted Andy Haldane from the Bank of England, …‘Only when markets were deregulated and liberalised from the early 1970s onwards did finance once again leap ahead…. He argues that much of the apparent growth in value added has in fact been illusory, based on increased leverage, excess trading and banks writing deep out of the money options, for example, credit default swaps, a US$60 trillion (S$80 trillion) market in 2007....What all these strategies had in common…was that they involved banks assuming risk in the hunt for yield – risk that was often disguised because it was parked in the tail of the return distribution.’ The era of fool’s gold may be over and America and Europe may not see its heyday sooner. But fear not, for if America and Europe ‘over constrain the finacial sector, risk may migrate outside the regulatory frontier, where it will be harder to measure and monitor.’ And this is where Singapore can step in. The rejects from the American and European financial industry are welcomed here to do their damages. Our local banks is in need of these foreign talents to spurt growth, to grow as big as Citibank, Lehmans, Goldmans, Morgans, the Bears and Stearns and the likes. Shall we or shall we not welcome these foreign talents into our financial industry? They will bring growth and innovation and boost our productivity and bottom line practically overnight. We don’t have to wait a millenium to grow our local banks to super banks. They can be super banks with the foreign expertise and their innovative banking practices and writing off debts. Banks need to take risk, high risk, and operate like casinos if they want rapid growth and high yield. With our greed for instant growth, like our infamous instant tree formula, we have no choice but to embrace these foreign talents with open arms. PS. Below are the causes of the financial crisis listed in Wikipedia. You can actually tick those that are applicable and happening here to see the risk that we are exposed. 1 Background and causes(2007/8 financial crisis) * 1.1 Growth of the housing bubble * 1.2 Easy credit conditions * 1.3 Sub-prime lending * 1.4 Predatory lending * 1.5 Deregulation * 1.6 Increased debt burden or over-leveraging * 1.7 Financial innovation and complexity * 1.8 Incorrect pricing of risk * 1.9 Boom and collapse of the shadow banking system * 1.10 Commodities boom * 1.11 Systemic crisis * 1.12 Role of economic forecasting

US carriers the perfect targets

'Setting the stage for a possible conflict, Beijing has grown increasingly vocal in its demands for the U.S. to stay away from the wide swaths of ocean — covering much of the Yellow, East and South China seas — where it claims exclusivity. It strongly opposed plans to hold U.S.-South Korean war games in the Yellow Sea off the northeastern Chinese coast, saying the participation of the USS George Washington supercarrier, with its 1,092-foot (333-meter) flight deck and 6,250 personnel, would be a provocation because it put Beijing within striking range of U.S. F-18 warplanes. The carrier instead took part in maneuvers held farther away in the Sea of Japan. U.S. officials deny Chinese pressure kept it away, and say they will not be told by Beijing where they can operate. "We reserve the right to exercise in international waters anywhere in the world," Rear Adm. Daniel Cloyd, who headed the U.S. side of the exercises, said aboard the carrier during the maneuvers, which ended last week. But the new missile could undermine that policy.' The above is extracted from an article by ERIC TALMADGE, Associated Press. The article is about China's new missile technology that is specifically developed to take on the American aircraft carrier group that is proving to be a menace in the East China Seas. The Americans have enjoyed naval and air superiority over all nations for a long time. This superiority is now being negated by the Chinese missiles that have the precision to knock out an aircraft carrier. It would be a cheap missile against a big, high value and worthy targets in terms of lives and machinery. Going down with an aircraft carrier will be several thousand crews and several hundreds of aircraft. A good bargain definitely. The Americans will now have to be very careful pushing their sitting ducks in the waters around China. They will come within the range of these high precision missiles designed specially to take them out of the equation. It is no more an invincible task force. It is a lame duck! The arrogance of American raw power has met its nemesis.

Pavlov’s Law in action

Pavlov is famous for his experiment in substituting a stimulus to elicit a desired response. Animals can respond for instance to a bell or a light and salivate as if it is responding to a food stimulus. After reading the papers these few days, I can relate to how we train our young to respond to money as a stimulus. Little school children were given tickets to watch YOG programmes but have to sign an undertaking to forfeit a $5 deposit if they did not turn up. If we keep training our children to respond to this money stimulus, soon their minds will respond to it in a predictable manner. It will be very effective when they become adults. Do not litter or you will be fined. Our streets will be cleaner. We can save a lot of time and trouble teaching children to behave responsibly as a rightful thing, as an ethical thing, as a good thing. Just use the money stimulus will do. Efficient and effective! No need to explain and explain on the whys. Pavlov called this kind of reaction as conditioning. The circus, the zoos and bird parks around the world also use this method very effectively to train animals to behave in the way they want them to.