2/26/2010

Kenneth calling for abolition of GRC

I totally and vehemently disagree with this call to abolish GRCs. Yes, it used to be advantageous to the PAP to run in GRCs and with strong ministers carrying weak and newbie MPs into parliament. That was long long ago. History. The ball game today is completely different. The GRCs are no longer that formidable and favourable to the PAP. I can sense fear in the vulnerability of GRCs. What could happen today is that GRCs would be the nemesis of weak ministers, and there are quite a few, and the GRCs will present them to the oppositions, plus the weak and strong MPs. Looking at the mood and situation today, two or three GRCs could easily go to the oppositions. And with a few more if nothing changes from now till the GE. The opposition should just go with the GRC system. The time is never better than now. Believe me, the GRCs are favouring the oppositions instead.

Demographic growth determines the new economic powers

According to Dr Helen Qiao, the economist from Goldman Sach, China's rapid economic growth will peak by the end of this decade and subsequently decline. Her prediction is based on the dependency formula which shows the relationship between the number of dependents and that of the working population. China's one child policy will reduce this ratio and thus works towards its decline. Japan is facing the same problem and so are the old European countries. Countries that have low dependency ratio will go on a decline and vice versa, countries with a high dependency ratio, ie, more working populations than dependent population will do well. Extrapolating this relationship we can see the new emerging powers of the 21 Century. India will overtake China as it does not have a population control law to limit reproduction. Other countries that will also rise to become economic powers will be Indonesia, Malaysia and many African countries where population growth is nothing short of phenomenal. The higher the birth rate, the higher the potential for growth and sustainability. Singapore will also decline in double quick time as we are not reproducing ourselves fast enough. The more proactive Singaporeans should make plans to migrate to the higher growth countries quickly before the decline sets in. The first sector to be hit will be properties as there will be lesser new population to purchase properties, unless we keep importing more foreign talents.

Singapore's 50 Most Trusted Individuals

The Asian Reader's Digest conducted a poll on 760 Singaporeans and asked them who they trusted most. 50 individuals finally emerged as the top most trusted men and women in Singapore. They include a top judge, a top cop, ambassadors, doctors, businessmen and women and comedians. I did not see the full list but some prominent professionals of eminent Singaporeans did not make it to the list, eg lawyers, bankers and people from the finance industry etc. But most notable was the absence of politicians. I thought, my god, the people have no trust for their politicians. Then I read further and it said 'the general elections have proven the country's leaders already rank highly...' and thus were omitted. I don't know what this statement means. It would be interesting if politicians were also included to give the people an insight into how well regarded they were. Then again it will be quite pointless if we end up with a survey when the top 50 most trusted individuals were all politicians. It will be quite embarrassing to the other professions and individuals. It will be equally embarrassing if one or two politicians did not appear as these are the most honest and highly regarded individuals we can find in our country. Anyone not in the list could be a slap in the face. Another reason for the exclusion of politicians in the survey could be a kind of self censorship. Ranking politicians with the mortals is unbecoming and can be sensitive. Better stay away from controversy. Whatever the reasons, the reason given for their exclusion is the most enlighten one.

2/25/2010

More BS in Marina Bay

MBS will be the number one tenant at Marina Bay. It will compete with RWS headon for the gamblers comes April 27. The Marina Bay is going to be an exciting locale. And one can expect more BS to move in and stake a claim to this prime land. DBS is likely to be there, maybe OBS and KBS too. CBS another potential. Then there are the IBS, RBS, SBS, and the UBS. Not forgetting that NBS will also be there. Now, what is NBS, No Bull Shit? Isn't it interesting that gamblers are now hot personalities and being courted everywhere, and some being flown in and driven by Rolls Royces to the resorts! Soon we will be reading more great stories about the exploits of gamblers and how much they made every minute they spent in the VIP rooms. And the greatest gambler of the island will soon come out from this resort in Changi to join the fray. Many Singapore students will write composition of what they want to be when they grow up, 'I want to be a gambler". Now the cool thing is not to be in the company of royalties and politicians but be seen with top notch gamblers.

We never learn1

Everyone seems to be blowing the property bubble and fanning it. High prices are good. We can hedge against inflation and our savings for old age. I don't believe people can be so simplistic. The series of repercussions and consequences are unimaginable when asset inflation leads to asset deflation. During the last financial crisis, many people went bust, bankrupt. Many lost their jobs, many could not service their mortgages, many properties were forced sold, many ended with negative assets. And of course many downgraded. Just because things were looking better, and the property prices have recovered, with some making profits and some lowering their losses, we should continue to blow the bubble. The next crisis can come even sooner than expected and the impact could be worst when the loans are getting bigger. 90% of our people lived in HDB flats. This is their home, the roof on their heads. When HDB flats become an element in the speculative circus of boom and bust, when it busts again, and serious enough, we are going to have many frustrated and angry people. And if they cannot afford to have the roof over their heads, we are going to have a real social problem of our own creation. As we keep feeding the unsatiable appetite of the developers and the speculators, we may want to ask why or what for? Making all those profits for what? To make developers and speculators rich and happy? To make foreigners coming here to swoop up the properties rich and happy? Our main concern, or the main concern of both the people and govt is good homes for the people. Not 'AFFORDABLE' homes that are not affordable. But looking at today's news, the two launches of BTO flats are 10 times oversubscribed, saying that they are indeed affordable. And is there a high demand or the demand is fictitious? Many of these buyers are still frightened that if they can't get one now, the next one will be more expensive. Many needed a home, genuine buyers, but the supply is coming in in drips and draps. If they don't register, no building of new flats. The frenzy to grab anything that is available is hot. Who dares to wait when the mantra is that property prices can only go up and up and away? I really hope that another big financial crisis hits us soon and this time people really learn that playing with people's homes and blowing the property bubble is dangerous and bad. The flat is the people's home and should not be a factor in the housing casino.