10/29/2016

Asean – The Obama foul up

Asean was originally an organization built by its founding fathers to be a neutral and independent regional organization free of big power interference. Over the years, willingly or otherwise, some members started to lean closer with the Americans, even signing military alliances to be part of the American Empire. Though Asean still maintained its neutrality, and the American allies played their American card close to their chest, gradually the mask came off, and they openly took sides with the Americans and fronting up for American interests. On the Chinese camp, a couple of new Asean countries joined the organization wearing their historical ties with China on their chests.

The expansion of Asean also led to the transformation of Asean with two opposing camps and allies strutting around with pride that they are allies of big powers. The veneer thin Asean neutrality was history and no longer touted as the key principle of what Asean stood for. The myth of a neutral Asean, built on the cardinal principle of neutrality has become bullshit.

As recently as the beginning of the year, the Americans were boasting about their pivot to Asia, a veiled expansionist move to stay in Asia by relocating their military hardware into the region. This move was generally supported by some Asean countries, namely Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore and to a certain extent Thailand. The rest of the Asean states were neutral except for Laos and Cambodia that were traditionally China’s close neigbours. Asean totally ignored the interest of Indonesia as the big brother and brought in a monster to rule the region, making Indonesia looking like a part of the Empire.

Obama was riding high and American projection of military power in Southeast Asia was as good as done with the Philippines and a few hardcore Asean states openly and covertly egging the Americans to stay in the region. Obama had 5 aces in his hand in Vietnam, the Philippines, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. And the Americans agitated the SCS dispute to its full advantage, encouraging these countries to confront China and to make counter claims on Chinese islands.

All this is history. The aces in Obama’s hand have turned to 2s. The Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand have switched sides. They refused to provoke China on the SCS claims, choosing to court China for economic development and trade and opting to talk and negotiate with China for a peaceful solution. The tension and threats of war in the South China Sea fizzled out. Obama is now left with only Vietnam and Singapore as the two aces in his hand.

China on the contrary have turned around and now holding 5 aces in Laos, Cambodia, the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia with the rest of Asean states remaining neutral other than Vietnam and Singapore.  Vietnam is looking like making a U turn as well with China waving the carrots of more trade and economic development, with no interference in their domestic affairs.

Obama’s hand is now weak, as weak as his last few days in Office. There is an Asean Revolution against the Americans. The stoking of tension and probability of war in the region failed. What Ash Carter said about isolating China has backfired. It is the USA being isolated and the last nail onto this coffin would be the killing of the TPP, the futile American attempt to isolate China.

Bye bye America. Or as Duterte has said, America, you lost. Southeast Asia would not be dragged into a war and turmoil at the will of the Americans. The Asean leaders are not that stupid (there are exceptions) to be at the becks and calls of the Americans to destroy their countries and the lives of their people. They want peace and progress for their people, not war, not death and destruction.

The American nightmare is just beginning.

PS. Happy Deepavali to all our Indian brothers and sisters.

25 comments:

Anonymous said...

Like that Sinkapore very jialuck leh. And our Super talent has pride so very difficult to do u turn so die die must continue. Some more on national tv to confirm the tribunal is an UN tribunal so how to u turn. U tell me lar.

Anonymous said...

The Sin Garment would have a lot to unspeak when the TPP failed and Trump said bye bye to Asia. Would they put all the blame on the foreign ministry and fire the whole team to pretend to make amends?

Anonymous said...

My impression on Asean was this: those died leaders set up this joint vowed to keep nuclear arsenal out of the joint countries. This promise has gone. Nuclear carriers, submarines, submarines detector ships are all over the port. Now to me, Asean is useful as a vehicle to submit jointly agreed principles to deal with China and US. The talk shows in Mongolia, Loas demonstrated this point at the crucial time in July after the Singapore claimed "UN backed" Judgment was made known. Then, the Chinese FM and Kerry were the focus. Seemed Aseans countries are more money minded than nuclear carriers minded as priorities.

So Why nuclear carriers are no longer a big deal? I saw this point: US sent 3 carriers at SCS in June. China sent 4 top PLA to do live firing exercise near Hainan island. One of the general was the war cooridinator. Why did US back off? That act of not triggering the already ready PLA was the crucial act i saw: no credibility.

If i saw, Duterte should saw and smelled it. US Obama was not determined to be the "rebalance force" as Ash Carter claimed in his recent article. Bye bye US. Duterte knew he could never get that island called Scarborough Soal or China called Huangyen dao. So he said: no 1 pinoy soldier should die for the "pool of water". Meanwhile, someone "chia toh", over dinner said China should support the "strong and powerful" Judgment and international laws. This act was "value negative" to me. Readers knew if reading RB s po.

China is the super power in Asia with the leaning of Philippines and Thailand toward China. Thailand is/gonna using China tanks. Najib is going to China with a big team on 31 July. Likely to expand Port Klang to be China s ship containers harbor. This might siphon off 30% of PSA s containers, I guess. Of course, Singapore dont need such small money.

I say China is the super power: China has probably already handed over the Chen 20 stealth super jets to PLA. This stealth type jet was fully made in China. US is not seen to deploy F22 in Singapore or Japan or SKorea. In term of superiority, I guess US will dare not to have war with China. Asean leaning to China is so obvious now. Singapore is not because it has lots of reserves, chai bey liao.
The prediction on chen 20 being used in PLA is because, the chen20 will be in airshow in Chuhai 3days from now. That does not mean that chen20 is a sure win. F16 and F35 are as good as chen20 when the pilots are trained in US or Australia, this point i have no doubt. US will win China. But US dare not to bomb China first on those US said junk ships. How to be super power if US is so not daring in Asia Pacific? PLA said they exist to win war: they want war. US said they are supremo powerful at Shangrila. US ran off first. That made Aseans practical leaders decided what next, except that little brother was slow to read the situation, got stuck now, how?

Anonymous said...

Correction: Najib is going to China on China PM Li s invitation on 31 Oct to 6 Nov and not 31 July, typoer.

Anonymous said...

The American nightmare is just beginning.
RB

Not to worry, still got Ah Loong as good friend and ally. And some more got Changi Naval base to use. China can use or not, u tell me lah? Or China can use military bases in other ASEAN countries or not?

Virgo1949 said...


Aiya, Ah Loong will put on his best smile until eyes cannot see and with his kebaya clad wife and clasped the hands of President Xi and Donald Trump if allowed to have an audience with them.

Come to the worst, follow the Thais's styles of paying homage to their King. Prostrate and crawl towards them with his arse pointing to the ceiling.

Now already took in lots of black ants saliva, knows how to double act.

Anonymous said...

Not to worry, still got Ah Loong as good friend and ally.
11.16 am

Tiok. And very reliable some more because Ah Loong govt very strong and every time sure win election one.

So America is betting on a sure win horse.

Anonymous said...

自己第一的自我心态,不詐别人不能排第二。

Anonymous said...

Home is where the heart is.

So where do you think our PAP leaders buy their overseas properties?
USA or China?

Anonymous said...

自己第一的自我心态,不詐别人不能排第二。
1:54 pm

因為70%人心态讓PAP排第一,不讓排第二。

要怪怪70%人,更怪反對黨無能組織政府。

Anonymous said...

The best joke is that today straits times carried an article by a stupid brainless writer who said that Duterte actions had "ruffled feathers" in asean !!! Ha hahaha

Anonymous said...

straits times is part of sph and sph is now retrenching staff, reporters included of course.

asean now is quite a hopeless organization, for instance Thailand didn't even want the Holland village standard chartered ang mo robber to be extradited to Sinkieland!

That is even worse than ruffling Sinkieland feathers! So what asean?

Anonymous said...

Everything is predestined. The days of Manifest Destiny is over. Look at what they are going to get as their next President and you now where the USA is heading.

Philippines will be the Chairmman of Asean for the next two years and you know the American cronies would not be able to make use of Asean to serve American interest. And the next 14 years Asean Chairmanship would be rotated among neutral or pro China camps. Vietnam and Singapore just had their turns. This means the next 14 years, the US would lose all leverage on Asean and cannot turn Asean into another American puppet on a string.

This is how He has planned to take down the silly American Manifest Destiny and break up the American Empire.

b said...

The trumpet will defeat the lucifer. The middle kingdom will be restored. The Japs will be brought to justice.

Anonymous said...


风水轮流转! 风水轮流转!

自己保重!

patriot said...


let's be frank and realistic
can we and shall we??
Sin, be it in standings in Asean
and globally, is nothing but a speck.

No Sin Ruler should ever think
he/she is anything that matters.
A wise leader is one who is always humble and circumspect.
The Nincompoops in Sin always
behave conceit and boastful.
马不知脸长, 但也得明白自己的地位。


patriot


patriot said...


let's be frank and realistic
can we and shall we??
Sin, be it in standings in Asean
and globally, is nothing but a speck.

No Sin Ruler should ever think
he/she is anything that matters.
A wise leader is one who is always humble and circumspect.
The Nincompoops in Sin always
behave conceit and boastful.
马不知脸长, 但也得明白自己的地位。


patriot


Anonymous said...

What happen if the new USPresident decides not to pursue SCS and come to an understanding with China. How is Sing going to react.

Who are Sing Foreinn advisors, are they doing Sing in. What abt all the simi think tanks. Simi institute this and simi institute

There. All enjoy good life . Follow the direction of the wind. Read CNN, ny times , Bloomberg change here change ther e

N become experts. Nothing to lose. Am I correct..?

Anonymous said...

No need to queue, so decided to sit at the hall of the mall to watch business. The stalls at the center of mall like pasar malam were having good time. The owners or attendants were either standing or reading on chairs. Then one attendant sat near and i offered the snack i had spare, she did not want. After sitting quietly i heard her chanting some pages from reading her handphone. This was life in the evening of a saturday. I thanked the scholars for bringing in foreigners to take aways jobs these singaporeans could do better than standing as attendents. The most important to thank the scholars is their ability to reduce the income of singaporeans. Even on the jobs the salaries would have been so low and stagnant for 15 to 20 years that retailers attendants can hardly have customers to attend to.
Good jobs, the scholars could celebrate chrismas in months time. But the retailers are losing money. They can only liam keng chanting phases to keep them calm. Tiah lau hui.
Scholar should go ahead to go for population increase with 3 million indians to fill the numbers. The market will guarantee bey tah han er.

Anonymous said...

Cannot wait the day to be (finally) under the embrace of the beloved motherland, wei da de zu guo, qing ai de zu guo, the unquenchable thirst and hope to breakfree of a bottomless suffocating dungeon engulfed in complete darkness, a place so dark and evil even hell pale in comparison?

Virgo1949 said...


FBI Director Jim Comey and Agents sick of Hillary Clinton's arrogrant behaviour as former First Lady and Secretary of State for too many years.

They preferred DT as more open and congenial.

Now go for the Kill in addressing Congress to disclose all dirty linen of Clinton but was stopped by those scums afraid of the Democrats losing the election.

So, DT gonna be the President elect on Nov 08.

Ah Loong gonna be plucked wholesale in supporting Osama, oops Obama the wrong horse together with Lau Beh aka Abe.

Got good show.

Sinkies will finally wake up to see real masks of these scums in league not to upset their World order of enriching themselves.

Anonymous said...

Sin took the plunge to join the Dark Side at the wrong time.

Anonymous said...

All a bunch of slave mentality. U dont have to take sides to survive. In fact, it inhibit your growth potential. And u have to kowtow every other day to acknowledge the overlord. How stupid can u guys be?

b said...

All good lawyers are good liars. It is very strange why people continue to vote for liars. The 11 commandment: Never vote for lawyers.

Anonymous said...

By the time China, the emerging superpower,have it's second and maybe even the third aircraft carriers not in distant future, the south China seas would be home to all ten US carriers?
No wonder Spore in line with US is favour of a stronger Japan military especially it's naval power .