South China Sea – An alignment of forces for domination and control

There are good and bad things coming out from this Hague circus and its South China Sea show. Let me start with the bad stuff first. The Permanent Court of Arbitration, an international institution created to uphold justice and peace, has unfortunately allowed itself to be embroiled in a power struggle for hegemony in the South China Sea. It is in the deep end, having sank into the quagmire for the last few years and unable to extricate itself to come up clean from the mud of infamy. Its decision is likely to compromise the good name and reputation of the institution of the Permanent Court of Arbitration and the judges involved.  At worst, it will destroy the very reason for the existence of such an international body, a highly respectable, neutral and legal institution to arbitrate and resolve international disputes.

And here is the good outcome from the pronouncement by the Court. I would not call it a legal and enforceable judgment. It is not and it will not be legal but a political statement from an institution that has lost its credibility as an independent and impartial world body. The good outcome will come about when countries with vested interests start to make their stand public to reveal their private agenda.  China would then know who are friends and who are foes.  There will be no need to hide behind a mask anymore.

There will be a new alignment of forces for control of the South China Sea, politically and militarily. The risk of war is real and eminent as the main protagonist will have the countries in the region fighting among themselves, leaving the main protagonists safe and sound from afar. The announcement by the Court would also make China’s choices and options easier. To borrow a phrase from George Bush Jr, it is either with me or against me. There is no need for pretences and speaking in fork tongues.  Asean countries will take their chosen places on both sides of the divide.

China does not need to be diplomatic anymore to appease the hegemon and think the problems of an open military confrontation will go away. China would have to take sides and close ranks with its friends against its foes. It is crisis time and China cannot afford to compromise its position and security to side with the hegemon and its foes against its friends. China must take decisive decision to part ways with the hegemon bent on confrontation. China would have to be resolute and firm and review all its policies vis a vis the hegemon and be prepared to take sides against the hegemon and its allies or be left to stand up against the hegemon and its allies, alone.

The Hague pronouncement is like D Day with the battle line drawn up. There is no more grey area, no more superficial friendship. The forces of the two sides will stand up to be counted and all policies must be realigned to face this new and risky challenge to China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the South China Sea.

A new and dangerous chapter in the story of the South China Sea is about to be written. The way forward is military confrontation with the hegemon and its allies upping the stakes in a winner take all gambit.  China’s appeasement policies to avoid war are not working. War is coming to China and the earlier China makes up its mind the better. It is a critical moment in history when China would have to call on all its friends and allies to act together to face the combined forces of the hegemon and its allies.

The only hope for avoiding a nasty confrontation is for the new President of the Philippines to break ranks and to start negotiation with China, to seek for a peaceful and mutually beneficial solution for both countries. Such a decision by the Philippines would be the only way to scuttle the aggressive intent of the hegemon, to give it no reason and justification to push for a nasty and explosive solution in open warfare in the South China Sea.

Would there be wisdom within the Asean ranks, especially those that have no conflicting claims in the South China Sea, to call out and walk away from the battle field drawn up by the hegemon? Or would they be dragged by the less enlightened Asean states into a war that has nothing to do with them and nor to their national interests?


Anonymous said...

OMG, Hague Tribunal is actually a kangaroo court, a bias judgment passed ignoring China historical facts using the UN 1982 Law of Sea to overight & claim it. In Chinese saying its called " 指鹿为马" or calling a deer a horse. Hague decision lay a foundation for any countries to claim over another countries by making is UN 1982 law of sea look legitimate. Predicts that there may be unrest or war outbreak as China will not let it to rest. China leader Xi already said " 不信邪,也不怕邪.."..if Pinoy & Uncle Sam wan to claim these islets, the consequences will be war & unrest in the region..

Anonymous said...

From the information I gather, I would like add:
1) This is no and not a court. It is not an international court. It is a tribunal for disputing parties.
2) It is not a court whose judges are paid by UN. The tribunal was formed by an individual appointing 4 judges from EU and 1 From Kana africa. Their salaries are not paid by UN as judges. China said Philippine might pay part of the salaries or expenses.
3) The individual appointing the 4 judges (1 appointed by Philippine to form 5) is a Japs working with Abe and was US ambassador.

Points 2 +3 will form bias opinion towards one side, against the Chinese side. It becomes a show from appointed actors.
China said among these judges, some had published the Scs at least has 12 islands. But when the judgment said all are reefs and rocks. That shows the manipulation behind to bend the opinion.
These 5 judges have not live in Asia and have no cultural knowledge and thus do not know the historic development of Scs.
They should be sitting there to read papers from Philippines and write misleading judgment.

China shows videos of Philippine occupied islands in Scs. Some of them have Philippine airforce plane sitting on it and people raising pinoy flags. This means the reef and islands occupied by pinoys are further developed similar to those occupied by China.

Now China suddenly woke up to complain pinoys occupied their islands. Will Xi dare to chase the pinoys away while the pinoys are asking US to chase China away to take Scaborough Shaol or Huangyendao.

I think China is pushed into a corner. The islands were passed down from history and re assigned to them after 2nd world war. Was Philippine an independent country that time to accept the islands? Why didnt they ask for the islands immediately after the war?
*If they pinoys accepted the islands, they must keep the criminal and pirates away.

Only when the place has oil and gas, pinoys, vietnamese, malaysians want those islands. Including Japanese who want the Senkaku “island”. Senkaku is rock or island? By looking at the Hague tribunal, Senkaku or Tiaoyedai is a rock. What a joke. Judges did not consider this part?

China said: can continue to talk, but not 1 inch of land can be grabbed. The first sentence is to pinoy, the second is for US.

So US, please pull the trigger to fire so that the PLA can perform. PLA general said, soldiers are for war and win. What are the US sailing around there for? Just pull the trigger so that PLA can their jobs and US can also show pinoys how powerful they are.

Anonymous said...

It does not matter what court it is.

The point is International court already makes judgement. All existing and future reclaim and fishing is illegal for China in the spratly islands.

Now China kana cornered itself as there is no more ways other than military options or give MORE money to pacify the neighbors who will always use this piece of paper as ransom. US is there to support the neighbors as and when there is meat and what serves US interest which at the end of the day is money.

So far China choose to talk talk talk only. Very loud but useless. Same like yesterday Channel news asia who interview a foreign and china commentator. The Chinese commentator (victor gao) talk talk and talk until CNA cut him off.

Anonymous said...

Should rename this blog MY CHINA NEWS.

Anonymous said...

It is a kangaroo court alright. Now anyone can set up a kangaroo and rule against any country and grab their land and say it is legal.

Anonymous said...

Very soon Mat land will file a claim on Hague Kangaroo court saying that SinkieLand belong to them. This will become true when many PR of Matland infiltrated Sinkieland many years down the route..in n years time Sinkieland will be "gone" ..Even Japs or China can claim SinkieLand too x years down the road...waa..UNCLOS really power la but dah jalan it got no army Leh ( mayb use uncle Sam one, but uncle Sam bz with race issue now)..

Anonymous said...

Nobody is grabbing anybody's land.

The court just say 9 dash line got no legal basis and Taiping island is a rock as such everything else which is not a island will belong to respective countries EEZ if it falls within 200KM.

Pinoy is going to get very rich from getting JV license. And then convert this money either to corruption or purchase more arms and convert into a rich maritime nation. Anyway, pinoy will catch up.

Next step is for Pinoy to clearly define which rock or reef or island falls specifically to their 200KM EEZ.

If you look at the whole map, it makes more sense now. Last time, jaw drop upon seeing the 9 dash line which is touching even Natuna. I think Indonesia also faint. Too greedy lah....

Anonymous said...

If you look at the definition, ever wonder why Sinkie is a island and not a rock or reef.

Maybe last time, i sleep in geography class and pay no attention. Actually got a lot of specifications one, of course human being are the one who write this or made judgement one.

I am also amazed why Taiping island is a rock?

Anonymous said...

There is something strange..in the neighbourhood...who u gonna call?..Hague-Tribunal Busters...I not afraid of Hague u know...

Anonymous said...

@ Anon 1117am

It should be Pro China CCP news.

Nothing here reported on China defective trains, China flood or typhoon that hit fujian.

No different from our own PAP news.

Anonymous said...

Some china man suggested China set up its own court.

The point is who will send their cases to china? Laugh until drop....

Anonymous said...

@ If you look at the whole map, it makes more sense now. Last time, jaw drop upon seeing the 9 dash line which is touching even Natuna. I think Indonesia also faint. Too greedy lah....

I second, i wouldnt say greedy but exaggerate or over.

So everybody can freely go there and fish ? As long as not within 200KM of whichever country ?

Anonymous said...

Those who know chinese can read .

Pretty interesting.


Anonymous said...

By right it doesnt matter if maybe you have few boats go there everyday. The respective country navy or coast guard can wayang like showcase some sample as warning. Pay some money to release boat/people and educate them on what suppose or not to do. Life goes on and respective and it is also demonstration to respective local people that their countries can protect their own interest.

Like what China say, traditional fishing grounds. Make sense but that is few centuries ago.

But when you have a whole fleet and armanda of fishing boats like locust. It is a whole different scenario.

I think even the fishes and sharks are scarred of chinese fishing fleet.

Anonymous said...

China made the stand on Hague tribunal judgment on 12 July. China has Pakistan openly express Ocean laws exclude sovereignty and support China. Cambodia express it is a political manipulation. Poland Russia India also support China.

Now waiting for US Carriers to shoot chinese to claim back the islands. Carter said disobeying international "court" was not allowable.

Can anyone recall US alleged Iraq has weapon of mass destruction? The US secretary broadcasted a radio intercepted conversation of Iraq military saying "hurry hurry". US rep said to UN, it meant the soldiers were burying WMD.
BBC broadcasted it live worldwild. Then the reporter commented that kind of allegation was unbelievable.
it turned out the reporter s comment was absolutely right.

This Hague tribunal is equally illegal similar to Iraq invasion scheming. I would expect US Carriers to invade those islands occupied by Chinese. Why are they not doing it now?

Anonymous said...

@ Anon 12:01 pm

This guy should be a retired guy working in govt sector. He should be getting his pension now daily. Can trace one by profession and age band.

However what he says is something what China people or leaders would want to hear.
China People only want to know now that China is the most strongest people on earth and all people have to listen to their biddings.

Is he a traitor? i dont think so. He is high lighting the reality.

So i think what we can do is not to overly expose these people to more public scrutiny, my thoughts

Anonymous said...

You trust Ah ney?

NEW DELHI: India on Tuesdsy asked all parties involved in the South China Sea row to resolve the dispute through peaceful means without threat or use of force and "show utmost respect" to the verdict by a UN-backed tribunal.

India's reaction came after the tribunal ruled that China has no legal basis to claim "historic rights" to islands in South China Sea.

"India supports freedom of navigation and over flight, and unimpeded commerce, based on the principles of international law, as reflected notably in the UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea).

Hahahha.... you never work with Ah ney before for sure. What do they mean when they shake their head?

Anonymous said...

US destroyed Iraq, and UK told the story behind the war.

US few Carriers want to destroy China PLA, come to think of the size in Iraq invasion, US is still need to add the balance 7 Carriers under repair now.

The China retired senior official said it correctly, get 10 Carriers. Should be a good advise. But to invade this kind of flat island is very simple. There is no hills, so just charge the marines up, the PLA on island will be out number and run or surrender.

What are US waiting for? Dont keep talking. China has already told them, no deal, not 1 inch pinoy can take away, and China will want back those islands taken away from China.

So US must help pinoys once for all. Dont keep talking, threatening and no actions. All know, taking the islands is very simple. Ask pinoy to do it, while US jets bomb the PLA. That will win in 1 hour. If not 10 hours.

Anonymous said...

@ July 13, 2016 12:45 pm

The article nothing pro china but more of the truth or screw ups China self made.

At the end of the day , it's an article to save face for the chinese government probably not going any action except protest.

Sorry to disappoint again, There will be no fireworks.

Anonymous said...

Nothing here reported on China defective trains, China flood or typhoon that hit fujian.

No different from our own PAP news.
July 13, 2016 11:42 am

Ya, nothing about your mother's affairs oso. Want RB to write about them? I ask him, want or not?

Anonymous said...

@ 1:15pm

Exactly. But the chinese people dont want to hear this. What they want to hear is articles like RB to justify 9 dash line is theirs and military will take it back no matter what at full price.

It is treason charge in china to write any "truth" to say govt action is wrong or any mistakes its leader has made. All decisions made by CCP must be CORRECT.

As mentioned this guy is probably under pension so i mean if can spare him lah. I know the matter is not in our hands but do so. Who knows he is a mole.

You see for past few years, China media or govt has made a lot of pro china news and fanning patriotism like RB articles and now how to brake?

Anonymous said...

@ Anon 1:21pm

Go ahead and write. Learn from China lesson. In the end, who is the blog owner and who gets hurt?

Anonymous said...

UN official July 13 issued a statement , said the International Court of Justice is the principal judicial organ of the United Nations , according to the " UN Charter " established peace palace in The Hague .

The building was built by the Carnegie Foundation as a nonprofit organization formerly known as the Permanent International Court of Justice International Court of Justice .

The United Nations would like to POINT OUT the use of the building is from Carnegie Foundation annual contribution.

Another tenant is the Permanent Court of Arbitration established in 1899 , but the United Nations does not have any relationship.

1. China said the tribunal judges 5 of them were NOT paid by UN. Someone and may pinoys also contribute. It seems that the salaries are paid by US Carnegie.SO the Tribunal was paid by US.

2. The tribunal is NOT an UN establishment.
It is not the international court.

Anonymous said...

Rb, The tribunal only repeat/parrot Philippine propaganda. ( same kind of narrative)

you should check Philippine argument against China.

How do Tribunal able to make their decision if China did not submit any legal argument for them to ponder upon? Nobody is defending China claims against Philippine.

The tribunal could conclude that there are no legal evidence that china had exercise historic right over the water.

Anonymous said...

What difference will it make?

Will China participate the ICJ if it is ICJ?

If such arguments were made 2/3 years ago, then there will be no opportunity at all for yesterday ruling.

Almost the whole world responded now must respect UNCLOS and to resolve disputes peacefully. ie. the one who use force will be further condemned.

Now how? cry father cry mother, got use meh?

If decided not to participate initially, just muddled through liao since one leg in mud alreadi.

Anonymous said...

Australia ,USA ,Canada, Singapore and many European govt dont take order /have legal obligation to follow the ruling made by Third party judicial institution.

Why should China govt follow the ruling made by Third party judicial institution?

For instance, if someone had won an award from Third party court (foreign court)

If they want to enforce their award in USA, they need to file their claim with USA court and ask the USA court to recognise the legitimacy or legality of the ruling made by foreign court,

If USA court refuse to recognise those award, USA govt dont have obligation to enforce it.

Western media are silent on such legal issues.

Anonymous said...

This judgement is just adding fuel to the fire, which is the intended purpose of the US and its allies. The instigators will use every means to stoke the flames so that they can continue to be the controlling force, behind the scene, in the South China Sea. The poodles will of course hide under the skirt of their master and bark as loud as they could.

Anonymous said...

Of all the places, they go to the tribunal in 'hades' to seek judgement. Hell is going to break loose

b said...

Those people know nothing about chinese history and thus they are not qualified to judge on this issue. This is asking people who do not eat durians to judge the taste of durians. What a stupid drama presented to a bunch of sheepies.

Anonymous said...

There readers still confused. The Philippine used the Arbitration and not the Court of Justice.

Court of Justice has a tenant is call Arbitration. Both in same building.

Court of Justice has judges paid by UN.
Arbitration is a private set up and is not related to UN.

China ignores the Arbitration judgment because the judges are appointed by japanese related to Abe and worked as US ambassador. Salaries are paid by ang mor and not UN.

UN Court of Justice may not deal with this kind of case with one side alleging something. It is a sham. The show was Not even qualified as arbitration tribunal.

Anonymous said...

This ruling is to make China look bad internationally with no regards for international law or any law. Anybody who deals too much or trade with China will not be protected by law.

That was the intention.

Of course, It is never in their plan that they expect China to comply. It is meant for China partners or trade partners ( who are also US trade partners) to see how wrong or how barbaric china is.

Now you can see clearly, US, Pinoy shut up liao and let china do all the explanation. No matter how they explain it is useless one.

China still gong gong flex military muscle to Asean members. They become more afraid and of course choose sides lah.

Anonymous said...

China Foreign Ministry need to OT alot these few months.

One after the other.

Anonymous said...

Redbean, maybe you write such article for China paper and tell them about this legal warfare stuff.

US is waging a legal warfare against China.

China should not respond to it with a military response.

China should gather their lawyers and come out with a legal defences.

For instance,

Australia ,USA ,Canada, Singapore and many European govt dont take order /have legal obligation to follow the ruling made by Third party judicial institution.

Why should China govt follow the ruling made by Third party judicial institution?

Philippine must file their claim ( awards) with the Chinese Court if they want to compel China gov to respect the ruling.

There are trial for such cases. - legal procedure

Philippine need to prove that China govt had consent to such arbitration
Philippine need to prove that such ruling wont undermine China judicial sovereignty.
Philippine need to prove that such ruling does not violate Chinese law, Chinese constitution etc..
Philippine need to prove that the foreign court had jurisdiction to legislate on such matter relating to China claim
Philippine need to prove that It is a fair and free tribunal whereby two parties can deliver their legal argument.

In the end, China court can refuse to recognise the awards given by the Foreign court because it fail to comply with basic legal principle - "fair and free trial"

China did not take part in the arbitration. - it is a sham trial
Foreign court dont have jurisdiction to hear those cases.

the ending ....
China govt dont have legal responsibility to follow it.

China slap USA face again with a comprehensive legal argument.

Such legal procedure exist in many Western nations.

Anonymous said...

There was a news conference held by The State Council Information Office today.

Wah lau! More explanation and more confusion. Too late to explain liao. Anyway if chose not to participate, then no need to explain. Now like begging whole world to understand china position. At least NK got more pride.

There is no threats made but say China is willing to negotiate with pinoy on the basis prior to ruling. Pinoy probably thinking WTF, now then say. Last time want to use military?

The deputy foreign minister is like kana cancer and can see not enough sleep. The young guy beside him was very steady instead and keep smiling despite tense pressure. This is the type of smiling (happy tone) face that will made the foreign affairs grade even though he could be very angry inside.

Why like that?

patriot said...

Where got fairness


JUSTICE in Sin???

Sin and Greedy Rulers

many many la.


Anonymous said...

Never trust LAWYERS. They will interpret the laws or implement laws to suit their agenda

Anonymous said...

When you have dishonest professionals, be prepared to get bloody screwed up


Anonymous said...

Its all part of a game.

Anonymous said...

Exactly. Appeasement didn't work in the past and it won't work either in the future.

Actually, it's very easy to teach those countries backing up this ridiculous verdict.

The map available from China Daily website shows more than 70 countries supporting China on South China Seas issues. compared to the few troublemakers supporting the hague circus.

Notable troublemakers supporting phillipines are america, uk, australia, japan and vietnam.

Issue a travel advisory to every offline and online travel agents with the list of the above countries that are against China.

That itself will have effect on the numbers of tourists going to the above countries.

To make it even better, spread out additional information related to the above countries such as:

1.UAE, Bahrain and Bahamas have issued their own travel advisory against travelling to america.

2.The supreme court of Japan has agreed with its government continue mass surveilance against muslim residents

3.Australia has the record of threating and criticizing other countries (Indonesia recently) to release drug trafficker of its nationality.

4.And others

And don't forget to promote other countries supporting China on the South China Sea issue.

Don't stop at simply creating ADIZ, make sure to accelerate building facilities all over the South China Sea and make it a resort destination asap.

Should america or other troublemakers dare to bring their warships in and make trouble, China can accuse them of threatening the tourists/civilians.

Anonymous said...

Kill the goose to get gold eggs. In the end, get nothing.

Anonymous said...

Red bean, i just found one interesting point.

google about Philippine territorial water over Sulu Sea.

Whole Sulu Sea ( as large as South China sea) belongs to Philippine - their Territorial water. ( a Philippine lake)

google the map of Philippine territorial water.

Western media turned a blind eye to such outrageous claim.

Anonymous said...

My wise suggestion to the China govt

1.Ask Chinese people file a claim in the Chinese court to ask whether China govt had obligation to respect the recent ruling issued by Arbitration in Hague
2. seek a court declaration on the constitutional issue and an injunction order from Chinese court

A. declare that the ruling is not legally binding on China because it violate China constitution.
B. declare that China govt dont have obligation to respect ruling made by a Foreign court.-

China govt did not consent/take part
it is not a fair and free trial.

C. Prohibit/ block China govt to respect the ruling issued by foreign court - it is unconstitutional

Anonymous said...

@ " There is no threats made but say China is willing to negotiate with pinoy on the basis prior to ruling. "

True ( have not check ) ? Then as predicted no action no fireworks, control control and control. Sorry to disappoint again.

In that case nothings change, back to cooperation as China initially proposed to all the neighbors.

Except it will be covered in black and white and much more details in contract or law or whatever to whoever countries owns a claim. Boundary will drawn more clearly.

Perhaps that's what the rest want ( security ) instead of just a mouth promise from China. As its strength grows, there's tendency that China may muscle others out.

Anonymous said...

@ 1036pm

Things have already changed. Boundaries in the region need to remain unclear. Then there will be peace.

When talking about sovereignty, no countries will negotiate due to internal pressure. It will come back again and again.

If population deem to see their own govt weak, there will be a lots and lots of trouble for sure. same everywhere.

Anonymous said...

Philippines paid for the so called Tribunal judges salaries. This is against principal of objectivity.

The Hague court of justice was NOT involved.
The Hague Permanent Arbitration court was not directly involved. It was asked to provide secretarial service.

The Humburg Ocean Law court was related, but the whole arbitration was not under the Ocean Law court.

Philippines and US are playing to the world a court case with a Japanese ex judge and this Japanese is a right wing militant type in Japan and was Abe s ambassador to US before.

The Chinese PLA should know their lands are robbed by another US scheme similar to Iraq, Libya and middle east. If they have soft knees, habis to China.

The Chinese civilian govt is too soft to pinoys and also S Korean. They dare not to even create trade sanctions within their power to stop this kind of embarrassment to China s reputation.

Until now, they only know talk can give away the islands to Philippines or let US deploy missiles in S Korea. China is not going to be in peace with this kind of attitude, encouraging small countries to bully China without paying a price.

Anonymous said...

embarrassment ?

so in the end to some is still about pride. that's a chinese sickness forever.

China always like to stay mysterious that begs the question of whether their weapons can and cannot. Last time PLA and leaders dare to fight , no money only one life. Now PLA got money some wealthy and their leaders more filthy rich, attitude change.

Human nature forever doesn't disappoint.

Anonymous said...

Just go to find out more for yourself. Sometimes, the one who bark the most is the one that is the most guilty conscience. When will people learn that sometimes silence is gold. overdoing it can turn the shit around.

Transparency is the key.