1/05/2016

16,000 more BTO flats

Property prices coming down for so many months. Every month 0.5 per cent, 12 months 6 per cent already. So serious. If another 12 months, another 6 per cent, chiat lat man. Quick, tell the Minister things are getting bad. There is a property glut, must remove all the curbing measures to let property prices to rise again. Statistics showed that in the last 10 years property prices had gone up by 200 per cent leh. So how, down 6 per cent kpkb and want minister to remove all the restrictions, tiok boh.

Luckily the minister is not fooled. Build some more, building another 16,000 BTO to keep the property prices from ballooning again. I can understand this and this is good for the people except the property developers and speculators. If you just have one property living in it, it is better that your $10m property be cheaper and has lesser property tax of pay. Those sitting on $50m property but no selling, those with several properties but not selling, will not be too happy for property prices to go up and pay more property taxes.

By the way, I support the govt to build more HDB flats for the average citizens. Keep the price low so that the people really can afford them and still got some money for retirement. Imagine if we could unwind the stupidity of not building HDB flats under the last regime, we would have solved our property problems when we had 20,000 units unsold, or at least the problem would be not so serious when the influx of foreigners hit the market.

I really hope there now some serious thinking in the govt for the good of the average Singaporeans by building more HDB flats and with a little surplus so keep HDB prices within the means of the average Singaporeans to be able to afford 4 or 5rm flats, not 2 rm flats only.Think the people first, think Singaporean first policy. If the PAP can really change its policies and care for the people, starting first with housing policies, then employment policies, then CPF policies, education policies, I think they can survive and still be in power to celebrate SG100.

There is another view on why the govt is continuing with the building of 16,000 units of BTO flats. I don’t blame them for thinking on the bad side. This view said the 16,000 units and more to come would still not be enough for the 6.9m population. The govt is building for the 6.9m not to bring down HDB prices and the cost of living. And the new MRT lines would still lead to jams and breakdowns as the capacity would not be enough. If this view is true, then the leopard really cannot change its spots.

Now which view is the real one? Who do you think?

60 comments:

Anonymous said...

16,000 more BTO flats.
- so?
- you can afford it meh?

the PAP government will be bringing in 1.5 million more Aliens to achieve 6.9 million population.
- enough flats meh?

Anonymous said...

Good! More BTO --> HDB resale prices drop more --> lesser upgraders --> condo prices drop more --> means I can buy more condos to rent to 2.2M foreigners. Soon to become 3.5M foreigners in 5 yrs time.

Anonymous said...


Fear not worry not.

All must be GOOD.

Please remember, 70% said OK, thank you and are very very happy.

Cheers.

Anonymous said...

The Lion has no spots. The Lion ages and is replaced by younger lions. But we don't have enough young lions nor are the lions who replaced the Lion are of the right calibre. And local lions are replaced by real lions...?

Virgo 49 said...

Two or three room units already made 70k profits.

What about the four, five and DBSS, Execute U flats???

Combined witb COES, ERPs and what have you, wah can talbled for Ministers salaries increases and performance bonus liao.

You think 16000 units enough for sinkies??

We are planning for the coming remaining 3 millions.

Wah, rubbing our hands in glee.

Veritas said...

Housing market is quite a complex issue and will need further and deeper thinking. In the midst of low fertility, assuming the husband and wife are both only child, then the couple will inherit 2 house. If they are allow to buy HDB, there will be 3 houses under the belt of the couple, and Singapore will turn into ghost town, if PAP never import FT.

All these scenarios must be in the mind of PAP policy makers and Mah Bow Tan should be aware of it.

And one more dilenma is couple will like to, and need to stay away from parents, for develop independence and for psychological well being. So there is a need to build new house for couple.

Also staying with parents in a crowded HDB will reduce couple fertility.

The reduction in HDB building by Mah Bow Tan, actually prevented the Ghost-Townization of Singapore, but his technical implementaion is so flaw, and so uncalibrated that it quickly morph into a terrible policies that enrich the landlord. But nevertheless, PAP has always wanted dynastic wealth.

In the midst of such challenges, there is a need of well thought of policies.

How to deal with the houses when old people die, and how to prevent accumulation of inter-generation wealth.

Anonymous said...

6.9 million population may come sooner than u think. And after that even 10 million, if ex HDB CEO Liu Thai Ker's idea that Singapore has room even for 10 million, is taken up by PAP.

And with that PAP will win a 80% mandate in GE 2020! I am assuming of course citizenship is also given out like toilet papers. And PAP may have to, or else how to attract even less talented foreigners in order to add up to 10 million?

Veritas said...

There is a harsh scheme employed by PAP that unlock old people house, instead of making them pass to their off-spring. That is by means of exorbitant medical fee, that would force that old to sell their homes, or force the young to sell it to pay debt.

This policy benefit the elites who make up the doctor class.

This policy can be implemented only if

1) there is enough fertility rate that that allows for young productive citizen to buy the HDB
2) there is enough productive young foreigners

Also will young people buy old house?

There are many challenges now and allowing market forces to determine the outcome can only cause massive pain to the citizen.

PAP policies to address the problem often morph into a hydra and benefit the rich, and PAP who are the rich often allow this to happen, offering half hearted resistance.

THe solution is -- an anti-thesis of KUan-Yew-ism and capitalism.

Our future lies on a heavily central planned system, something closer to socialism. The role of the government is not to faciliate capitalism and competition. It is to protect the poor against the rich or to protect the weak against the powerful, and the government themselves are the rich. That is to say government role is to protect the people against the government's family and themselves.

I have thought of possible solutions but its too long. May share it bit by bit in subsequent postings.

Anonymous said...

I have thought of possible solutions but its too long.
Veritas 10:08 am

Why u bother? 70% had voted for PAP in GE 2015. And this is what PAP need, not your solution!

Better u think of solutions to enable the opposition to be ready to be govt! Or can u be part of the opposition and also the solution?

Anonymous said...

PAP is stimulating the sagging economy by building more flats and more infrastructures. Not that there is great love for the people but manufacturing is down to a dangerous level and government needs to prop up by spending. So those who need to buy a flat this is a damn good time. No need to say thank you. it is just part of an economic game.

Virgo 49 said...

The next stage is SERS.

Economy in doldrums, construction is in.

Massage the figures.

Cheers

Anonymous said...

All schools are good schools.
All PAP policies are good policies.

70% Singaporeans cannot be wrong.
So eat shit.
10 billion flies also cannot be wrong.

Anonymous said...

Any other way to stimulate economy, besides construction, infrastructure and importing more foreigners?

If not, why do ministers need to be paid so much?

Anonymous said...

Any other way to stimulate economy, besides construction, infrastructure and importing more foreigners?
January 05, 2016 12:22 pm

Do you think there is a secret Master Plan for Singapore and PAP for the next 100 years?
Do you think this alleged Master Plan has already been pre-approved by LKY many years before he died?
Do you think the welfare and well being of Singaporeans rank very high in this alleged Master Plan?
Do you think PAP serves Singaporeans or do you think Singaporeans serve PAP?

Q: What do you think?
A: Singaporeans don't think. And that's why Singaporeans are in this sad state of affairs.

Anonymous said...

China take over S'pore as 27th province, then no more property problems liao. All housing will be affordable to all, whether you're a toilet cleaner or chairman of Capitaland.

Anonymous said...

// In the midst of low fertility, assuming the husband and wife are both only child, then the couple will inherit 2 house. //


Oso inherit 4 CPF accounts, several bank accounts, some private / commercial properties, shares, jewelleries, antiques, watches, collectibles, businesses shareholdings, luxury cars, yacht, gold bars, overseas properties, US Treasury Bills, gahmen and commercial bonds, country clubs membership, overseas plantations, mines, farms, lands, hotels, rare coins, wine, hard liquor, personal aircrafts, helicopter, European football clubs ......?

Veritas said...

Mathematically there is no way a society can let 100% of people to accumulate and pass wealth to next generation. Consider that you are start off with your S1 million dollar of inheritance and every generation is able to increase wealth by 100%, then your grandson will inherit $4 million and by the 20th generation, your family will own the planet.

Think of every Singaporean is able to increase their wealth by 100% and pass to their chidren.

The elites must think of a way to strip the poor of their property, meanwhile ensuring that elites are able to inherit and increase their wealth.

But by allowing only elites to pass wealth will create unsustainable and scandalous wealth concentration.

Right now property 90% of the world's wealth is owned by 0.01% of the elites, through various form of cross holdings and stealth vehicle.

The wealth accumulation will cause the implosion of the world's economy. If the poor has nothing to spend, the rich can sell nothing. And asset like land price is nothing, if the piece of land is not populated by high quality people like Singaporeans.

For example 1 sqm in Antartica or Somalia is worthless and 1 sqm in Singapore is $30000. The land is the same but Singapore is lucky to have Singaporean Chinese.

This theory is a bit long and I need cut it short.

In conclusion, the world system is heading for collapse, and we need to prepare for war, famine, diesease and all form of terrible disaster.

The only system that can save us is socialism.

Anonymous said...

The only system that can save us is socialism.
January 05, 2016 3:49 pm

70% Singaporeans say PAP is the only system that can save us.
Not socialism.

b said...

These days can easily build 50 storey. why stop at 20 storey? HDB is pricey at 20 but can be affordable at 50 storey. Every sg family should be able to afford a hdb flat in sg.

Veritas said...

I predict WW3 probably after 2060, that will wipe out most of mankind. I base this on observation of traditional Chinese capitalism.

While Europe is a feudal society, China has evolved into capitalism 2300 years ago. I call it agrarian capitalism. Chinese capitalism has 2 internal contradiction, namely the concentration of wealth, and Malthusian population growth.

Chinese agrarian capitalism allow wealth to be concentrated in a few hands after 300 years, whereby it become unsustainable. Meanwhile, the living standards and scientific advancement of China allow Chinese to overcome diseases and breed. At around 300 years, China will face with a population pressure.

With population pressure and land concentrated in few hands, meaning that large number of Chinese will be out of jobs. Very soon, peasants revolt erupts, and that wipe out a large number of population, trigger mass migration. The decimation of population as well as migration to China peripherals once more reduced the Malthusian pressure. The decimation of elite class result in redistribution of land to the poor.

So, China get a reset every 300 years.

Europe and white man arrive to capitalism later than China and white man land was for a long time feudal, preventing accumulation of wealth, hence, preventing efficient accumulation of knowledge, and hence, result to lower life expectancy. White man land Malthusian and wealth accumulation contradiction is not as acute as China.

But with white man and whole world ascending to capitalism, the Chinese reset will eventually play out.

I believe the time line for everyone to be dead is after 2060. I hope I wont be facing this. I hope I will die by then.

Anonymous said...

These days can easily build 50 storey. why stop at 20 storey? HDB is pricey at 20 but can be affordable at 50 storey. Every sg family should be able to afford a hdb flat in sg.
January 05, 2016 4:37 pm

Our population is too small to support 50 storey HDB flats.
The property prices will collapse.
The Ponzi will come to an end.

Anonymous said...

//PAP is stimulating the sagging economy by building more flats and more infrastructures. Not that there is great love for the people but manufacturing is down to a dangerous level and government needs to prop up by spending. So those who need to buy a flat this is a damn good time. No need to say thank you. it is just part of an economic game.//


2016 maybe challenging. ......

16,000 BTO flats adds only about SGD5 to 7 Billion over its construction phase, some renovations, purchases of furnitures, appliances, fittings etc.

Assuming a moving average of SGD7 Billion per year, with a multiplier size of less than 2, it adds a meagre approximate SGD 10 Billion to a GDP of more than
Sgd350 billion.

Anonymous said...

It is still better than nothing to keep the "sagging" construction sector afloat.

But nothing can substitute an exports sector worth about SGD700 billion that drives most of the domestic investments, consumptions, tax revenue and many service sectors.

Thus, building houses in sinkieland is not a self-perpetuating economic activity like acquired consumption spending power in a big economy.

Anonymous said...

The decline in private housing construction would be felt over the next few years and 16,000 BTO flats can neither cover the short fall in private sector construction nor make up for the "continued subdued" exports .......

Anonymous said...

The decline in private housing construction would be felt over the next few years and 16,000 BTO flats can neither cover the short fall in private sector construction nor make up for the "continued subdued" exports .......
Anon 7:15 pm

Doesn't matter, as long as Hong Lim Park is still quiet on weekends and WP is still not ready to be govt.

Anonymous said...

For example 1 sqm in Antartica or Somalia is worthless and 1 sqm in Singapore is $30000.
Veritas 3:49 pm

Ya lor, so why u kpkb for what?

Anonymous said...

1 sq m in say Prime, Prime Marina Bay or Orchard Link condos may not fetch S$30,000 psm ......

The value in more than 80% of sinkieland housing is barely S$500 or about S$5,000 psm ......

How on earth somboLEE or anybolee gives the idea properties in sinkieland is worth $30,000 psm?

Anonymous said...

Bill Gate is worth USD80 Billion doesn’t mean every Yankee has that much, right?

How many residential properties in sinkieland can YEW find worth S$30,000 psm?

Are YEW trying to kid someboLEE or the daft sinkies ...... The Lao Ah Peks ( oldies ) are smarter than that lah ........ No?

Anonymous said...

Typo at 8.12pm

Should be " .... 80% of sinkieland housing is barely S$500 psf ...."

The word "psf" was missing .....

Anonymous said...

Now back to the main economic "black clouds" issues hovering above sinkieland. .....

Anonymous said...

Is the current model sustainable?

Anonymous said...

Private sector housing peaked at about 20,000+ units between 2010 to 2012.

For 2014 and 2015, private housing was below 10,000 units per year and likely to remain so for 2016, 2017 and ( very ) possibly ( far ) beyond .....

BTO flats were ramped up to about 20,000+ units for 2012 to 2013.

Veritas said...

In coming years, there will be a lot more hardship, a lot more bankruptcy, and wealth will be more concentrated.

Meanwhile, Robots will take our jobs, including those in Macdonalds. There is now even Robots waitor.

A large number of lecturer job will be replaced with online teaching.

Also with every financial crisis the elites are going to hand more monies to elites themselves, causing more wealth concentration, meanwhile the poor rot.

I predict at 2030, there will be a resurface of Marxist insurgence, or maybe earlier.

Anonymous said...

Thus, the decline in private housing is about 15,000 units or 60% from their peak in 2012 and about 9,000 units or 40% for BTO flats from their peak in 2012/ 2013?

Anonymous said...

Now with such a ( sharp ) fall ( in both private and public housing from their peak in 2012/ 2013 ) and likely to be ( felt and ) reflected in the construction sector in 2016 and beyond, what are the general implications in the wider economy?

Coupled with the declining NODX ( non-oil domestic exports ) since 2012 and the declining real per capita private consumption spending since 2012, again what are the wider economic implications?

Anonymous said...

What are we looking at?

Double whammy?

Triple whammy?

Anonymous said...

It was reported in the BT ( Business Times ) front page this week that the stock market in sinkieland is like ....... ?

To use an often used financial term to describe a "sick" entity, it is like ....... a "Zombie"?

Anonymous said...

Now, can YEW piece together and see the "entire" ( economic ) picture?

Botak was awarded the ........ the ........ global????? Fin Minister in 2014 ...... ?

WHAT?????!!!!!

Anonymous said...

For what?

"Donating" sinkieland's ( taxpayers ) SGD1,000,000,000 to IMF?

SomboLEE pls ask Botak ( straight in his face ) how "competitive" ( or "uncompetitive" ) sinkieland's economy has become and is the current growth trajectory ( even remotely ) sustainable?

Anonymous said...

To be fair, sinkieland's economic dilemma is not "overnight" and cannot solely be blamed on "Botak"?

After all, Botak only join in 2001 but some of the economic "illnesses" were already there?

But did Botak do anything significant to bring about long term sustainable international competitiveness other than some "short term" fiscal and monetary measures to boots the economy, in some years ( 2009 to 2015 ) with "HUGE help" from "Ah Ben" ( think almost 0 interest rate and USD4.3T money printing ) in the US and "Super Mario" ( 2012 to 2015, think more than 1 Trillion Euro LTRO in 2012 and another round of continuous QE for 2015 ) in the Eurozone?

Anonymous said...

Well, the Lao Ah Peks ( oldies ) are some of the best and smartest in the world having built sinkieland from 3rd world to 1st world. .....?

So the whole ( economic sad ) story will be summarised ( the sinkieland's Lao Ah Peks should know the full details ...... )?

So how did sinkieland's economy get "trapped" in current ( unsustainable ) model and who was the "culprit" and undid GKS's sinkieland's good ( economic ) works?

Anonymous said...

In summary, the gradual erosion of sinkieland's international economic competitiveness started in the early 90s during Lao Goa's era?

What value did Lao Goa and his cohort add to sinkieland's economy other than high cost .... ( think asset inflation oops asset enhancement, COE, GST, leg open big big policies since 1990 )?

Now, what can the "CON-MITTEE for Future Economy" come up with to "undo" the "economic damages" inflicted during lao goa's era and the "wayang wayang short term band aids and fixes" by Botak?

Anonymous said...

The younger generations ( new sinkies ) are the "collateral damage" going forward?

Because many are not even born when Lao goa took over in 1990?

How can the younger generations ( new sinkies ) "be blamed" ( "accused" ) of letting sinkieland "sinking" into current (unsustainable) mode?

Anonymous said...

16,000 BTO flats in 2016 may secure some younger sinkies a roof over their heads in 2019 or so. ......

But ........ but ....... if YEW look at the retail sector in downtown ..... ( which is supposed to get a BIG BOOST from wading into a social-fabric breaking vice-casino industry ), YEW can hardly be optimistic about the future ....?

How many and which "(economic) engines" are still doing ok?

Anonymous said...

NTD mentioned some years back the "auto-cruising" in economic and other policies is "bad" ..... ( "very bad" ) .......?

There are likely heavy prices to pay .......?

The years ( the 1990s and 2000s during lao goa's era ) of operating at "satisficing" mode are coming home to roost and "haunt" sinkieland's economy in the coming years . ....?

Anonymous said...

Can the latest "shortie" save the day for sinkieland's future economy with his (much awaited) new strategies and policies recommendations to steer sinkieland's economy from the current ( deep stormy and treacherous seas lao goa's policies or lack of them had got sinkieland into ) .....?

Anonymous said...

Going by his (recent) records in MOE and (further back) in MAS, can YEW be optimistic. ......?

Anonymous said...

Oh btw, according to media reports last month, the new policies recommendations under the "CON-MITTEE for Future Economy" won't be ready until ...... ermmmmmmmm ......... ermmmmmmmm ....... 1 year later in end 2016 ......?

From empirical evidences ( in the past ), many policies ( prescriptions ) even if they are correct need ( donkey ) years to come into effect .....?

Some ( supply-side policies ) might even take decades to kick in ( assuming everything more or less are on track )?

Are YEW ( still ) optimistic the latest "shortie" is the ( right ) one to save the day ( for sinkieland's faltering and floundering economy )?

Btw, Botak's said in 2015 the elite ( gahmen ) would be grooming sinkies for the financial industry over the next 30 years?

Were lao goa's and his cohort eyes half-closed and semi-asleep in the 1990s and 2000s and forgot to groom sinkies?

How many face palms?

YEW decide?

Anonymous said...

Btw, Botak's said in 2015 the elite ( gahmen ) would be grooming sinkies for the financial industry over the next 30 years?
--------------
Smart Sinkies will ownself groom ownself.
And if successful, they leave Singapore.

Waiting for PAP to groom you is like waiting for your cpf money to be returned back to you (ROFL) in full.

Anonymous said...

Aiyo ......

Anonymous said...

The problem now is how big is the problem?

Some oldies allegded that all these ( screwed up ) are done under the noses of the new generations ( new sinkies ) and they ( new sinkies ) allowed such ( screwed up ) to happen?

Anonymous said...

When the asset inflation oops asset enhancement policies were pushed out by Lao goa's and his cohort in the early 90s, how many of the younger generations were born or still in their infancy or schooling?

By dabbling in leg open big big policies and big time monetization, unlocking of values and harvesting of all the low and mid hanging fruits, lao goa and his cohort "NEGLECTED" and let sinkieland's international competitiveness slipped over time?

Anonymous said...

Well, do lao goa and his generation and the baby boomers generation expect the younger generation to clean up the shit?

Well, lao goa's generation and the baby boomers generation built sinkieland from 3rd to 1st world, right?

Anonymous said...

Well, now there is a problem ..... right?

The younger generation shall see how good the oldies and baby boomers are .....?

Anonymous said...

The younger generation shall sit back and watch show?

YEW want the younger generation to lead the way, then better admit lao goa's generation and the baby boomers generation screwed up?

YEW "pushed all the faults" and "wildly alleged, accused" the younger generation of screwing up ( the policies ) or let them occurred when many are not even born yet or in their infancy or still in primary / secondary schools? How could they even done anything to prevent what happened ( under the noses of Lao goa's generation and the baby boomers )?

Anonymous said...

Who are "sitting on countless expensive properties"?

Lao goa's generation and the baby boomers or the fresh school leaving younger generation new sinkies?

Who had screwed up and caused sinkieland to be unsustainable? Who actually are auto-cruising and need spurs in their thick hides? Ha ha ha

Anonymous said...

Btw, Botak's said in 2015 the elite ( gahmen ) would be grooming sinkies for the financial industry over the next 30 years?
January 05, 2016 9:40 pm
-------------

After the successes in grooming talents for NOL SMRT and the Prime Minister's Office;
I can hardly wait for PAP to start grooming talents for DBS and POSB.

Anonymous said...

Germany In Shock After "Monstrous" Attacks, Rape By 1,000 Men "Of Arab Or North African Origin"
--------------------------
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-05/germany-shock-after-monstrous-attacks-rape-1000-men-arab-or-north-african-origin


1,000 men sexually assault or mug 80 women in German city during one night
---------------------------------
https://uk.yahoo.com/digest/20160105/1000-men-mug-sexually-assault-80-women-german-city-one-night-10877391

Anonymous said...

Winning Hedge Fund Returns Money to Investors - Says Market Risk Is too High
--------------------------------------------

Nevsky Capital which has a cumulative gain of 6,406% since its founding in 1995 is calling it quits and returning money back to its investors.

The Reason ??
===============
" The final reason we have decided to cease managing the Fund is our increasing concern with regard the health of the global economic cycle, which we describe in detail in section 3 (below).

This view is relevant because, in our experience, periods of economic pressure and high market volatility will tend to make the issues that are already making it more difficult for our process to work (which we have discussed above) such as poor disclosure, the triumph of nationalism over economic logic, low market liquidity and heightened event risk, worse not better, thus potentially leading to a further deterioration in our risk adjusted returns. "

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-05/why-15-billion-nevsky-capital-shutting-down-full-letter

--------------------------------

Do you think Nevsky Capital is a better investor than Temasek?

If Nevsky thinks it is too risky to invest now, do you think Temasek should follow their example?

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