Dispute in South China Sea

Indian and Vietnam have signed an agreement to prospect for oil in the disputed South China Sea. China has warned India not to fish in trouble water, especially China’s trouble water. India is now expanding its presence out of the Indian Ocean into the South China Sea. It has also sent its warship into the area as a show of force. And India and Vietnam are staying firm. Looks like Asians are all eager for war after years of peace. Good show India/Vietnam.

India and Vietnam make a perfect partner to take on China in a potential military conflict. Both have been defeated by China and taught a painful lesson in their border adventures into China. And both would like the opportunity to avenge their embarrassing defeats by the Chinese soldiers.

India is an up and coming superpower. It has an aircraft carrier, or maybe two. China has none except for a newly refurbished carrier for training purposes. India should be militarily superior to the Chinese in aircraft carrier alone. It has a truly blue water fleet and can project its power to the South China Sea. It can also depend on Vietnam for air cover. On balance, the combination of India and Vietnam looks superior to the Chinese Navy.

The Chinese Navy has never fought any battle against any country since the humiliating defeat by the British and later by Japan. This will be a good chance for India and Vietnam to show the Chinese a thing or two in naval warfare. They might have lost a land war, but a naval conflict is looking good for them.

India should bravely send its aircraft carrier to the South China Sea and test the resolve of the Chinese. And if they can prove that they are more superior to the Chinese, in combination with Vietnam, they stand to take over all the islands in South China Sea from China. And with the oil fields in the sea, India could be in control of a rich strategic resource and also deprive China of it. It is a good gamble for India. Nehru’s forward looking policy can be continued in an eastward looking policy. It will be a great opportunity for India to emerge as a bigger power than China.

Come on India, go for it. Come on Vietnam, you can do it.

PS. Just a reminder. The PLA can still cross the border should India/Vietnam engage in a naval battle with China. If both think they can fight China at sea, it does not mean that China cannot open another front on land. I must say it will be really interesting.


The said...

Okay, assuming that India prevails in the sea war - the South China Sea will then be renamed East India Sea. Then, China will executed a norther hook through the Himalayas and win the land war. The Indian Ocean will then be renamed Chinese Ocean.

Looks like a fair trade to me.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

And Vietnam be renamed IndoChina.

Anonymous said...

India and Vietnam this time will be very well prepared at their borders and will not be easily overran.

Jonathan said...

Philippines has expressed unhappiness over the signing of agreement regarding the South China Sea dispute between China and Vietnam. This shows the fragility in the union among the few interested ASEAN members. I don't think Aquino has thought through his strategies well. USA will not help him in the event of a military conflict. While the Chinese navy has been the underdog in history, this is not a good reason to underestimate its overall strength.

Singapore should stay out of this mess if it wants to maintain its amicable relationship with China. China has just overtaken the USA to be the biggest trading partner of the EU. This shows the ever increasing economic power (which can be translated into political power) of China. Just a few days ago, China has imposed anti-dumping tax on polyurethane from Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. China has become more skeptical of Singapore over the past few years partly due to the opinions expressed by Mr. Lee Kuan Yew in welcoming US presence in Southeast Asia to "balance" the power of China. China doesn't like this. The anti-dumping measure seems to be a reminder to Singapore (and the other US allies) that they should treat China with the level of reverence it deserves. It is unwise to get the stink by involving in the South China Sea dispute. Thus, it is better for Singapore to keep away from this mess if it still wishes to improve the relationship with China.

Anonymous said...

tsk tsk! you are instigating conflict?

Anonymous said...

In history, india almost never won any war with other countries. Such a country and huge population can be colonized by a tiny British in the past tells something about that country. War machine requires money. Unless US is backing them, both India and Vietnam are still poor to engage in any war. If they do, wars will bring their development back years. And, US is basically broke in finance. Any major war will accelerate US's decline. Vietnam is an aggressive country in SEA from past history - invasion of Cambodia and other neighbors.

Anonymous said...

South China Sea dispute.
PART ONE ( China Daily )

Cooler heads should prevail in South China Sea dispute
07-25-2011 16:53 BJT Special Report:South China Sea Is An Indisputable Part of China |

Text:A A A |Email Share |

The South China Sea issue became a top agenda item for the 44th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting that opened in Bali, Indonesia on July 19. Whether the ASEAN countries can introduce a legally binding code of conduct for the sea has attracted much attention from reporters.

Obviously, the legally binding code of conduct is targeted against China. The United States, the world's only superpower, has long been actively interfering in the South China Sea territorial dispute. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced publicly at the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting last year that the South China Sea dispute was related to U.S. national interests. The dispute has been heating up since then.

Right before the 44th ASEAN Ministerial Meeting in Bali, several U.S. Navy ships arrived in the waters of Vietnam for joint military exercises. There is every reason to be concerned about what remarks Clinton will make at the ministerial meeting this year.

China disapproves of referring bilateral disputes to multilateral forums and is strongly opposed to the intervention of an outside power in the South China Sea dispute. This does not mean that China has done something wrong or feels guilty. China just does not want to complicate the issue.

Admittedly, there are maritime territorial disputes between a few ASEAN countries and China. Every inch of a country's territory is sacred — be it a small or big country. Territorial disputes are not unsolvable, no matter how sensitive they are. Such disputes used to be solved with violence, but times have changed. France and Germany successfully settled their long-standing feuds through promoting the establishment of the European Coal and Steel Community about 60 years ago, which boosted the integration of European countries. Asian countries have the wisdom and ability to maintain stability in the South China Sea, and to make it "a sea of peace, friendship, and cooperation" by completely solving the territorial dispute as soon as possible.

Regarding the South China Sea issue, the standpoint of China is consistent and clear. In as early as 1980s, China already brought forward the proposal of "putting aside the dispute and developing it jointly." China says so and China does so.

The standpoint of negotiating it peacefully and solving it jointly comes from China's outlook on the times. In the current times, peace and development are the two mainstreams, and based on this judgment, Deng Xiaoping started the great cause of reform and opening-up. Tightly seizing the trend of the times, China is walking on a road of peaceful development firmly and unshakably. The great achievement in economic development has not only enhanced China's comprehensive national strength, but also made China more broad-minded and more patient in dealing with complicated issues. The foreign policy of "fostering a harmonious, secure and prosperous neighborly environment" has become an important part of China's diplomatic thoughts.

Anonymous said...

South China Sea dispute.( Continue from Part One )
PART Two. ( China Daily )

The "Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in South China Sea" reached in 2002 is a good document because China and ASEAN countries have all strongly realized that a peaceful, friendly and harmonious environment is needed in order to solve the South China Sea issue. Good conditions need to be created in order to settle the differences and disputes.

In the document, all the parties have clearly undertaken to establish channels of trust based on equality and mutual respect. For the past 10 years, China has actively promoted the implementation of the declaration and the subsequent courses and always tried to make practical progresses as soon as possible. Unfortunately, a few countries have not cooperated with China.

Some ASEAN countries made efforts to push forward a "binding behavior criterion of the South China Sea" before the Bali conference and even announced that they hope to solve this problem through the cooperation of countries such as the United States and Japan. Regardless of the original intention of this proposal, is there any realistic foundation for such a strong thrust under the current atmosphere of the South China Sea issue? As certain countries attempt to promote the internationalization of the South China Sea issue to put pressure on China, China has reasons to raise the following questions: what is the true intention of the so-called "binding behavior criterion?" Are they trying to act freely while binding China? What if the immature "behavior criterion" fails to produce the "force of constraint" but make the situation more complex?

The ASEAN now indeed needs to further promote the integration of many aspects, such as internal politics, economy and diplomacy. However, pinning their hope on the internationalization of the South China Sea issue to strengthen the internal integration and promote international influence is obviously not practical. This will influence the relationship between ASEAN countries and even harm the interests of countries in this region.

The dispute in the South China Sea does not correspond with the fundamental interests of China and the ASEAN. Both sides will certainly more fully understand the meaning of peace negotiations as long as they consider the South China Sea issue in the height of the further common development and prosperity in this region. What they need now is to cool down the dispute and fully promote the development of the relationship between China and the ASEAN to create a good environment for the final settlement of the South China Sea issue.

China believes China and neighboring countries have the ability and wisdom to properly deal with the South China Sea issue.

Related stories
Joint development key to resolving South China Sea dispute 2011-07-13
China: South China Sea disputes should be resolved bilaterally 2011-07-12
World Insight 11/07/03 South China Sea dispute 2011-07-04
World Insight 11/06/19 South China Sea dispute 2011-06-20


Anonymous said...

India at it's heyday had great religious and cultural influence over China 2500 years back. During the Sri Vijaya and Majapahit Periods, India had similar influence in the whole of South East Asia.
It is now time for India to play a larger role in Asia and Asia Minor. It is also time for the Indian in the US to have more political, economic and technology development roles.
A civilization that is able to survive for five thousand years and becoming a nation with the highest population says much about the Race.
India had been in the fore front of civilization, be it in religions, science and humanities. It will be the greatest nation again soon.
The Indians in Sin are also proving their mettles and calibres, they had rose to head of state, dpm/finance minister and security/terrorism experts.
With divine guidance, India will make an excellent global power as those who believe in gods will do good as gods wish them to. May India rise to lead the world.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

India is an ancient power, just like China. If China can do it, India too can do it. But the West do not take India seriously other than giving India some pet talks. They would play up India's aspiration to be a big power and use India as their proxy to irritate China or even fight China.

But what choice has India got? It has to prove that it is indeed a superpower in the making. Yes, it fought many disastrous wars with Pakistan and China, and lost. It has a credibility problem.

The South China Sea dispute is a golden opportunity for India to take on China and prove who is boss. And it has a mighty Vietnam as partner and a willing America urging it to do it.

It is a tempting opportunity for India. India needs to fight a victorious war to redeem itself as a colony of a little country called Great Britain.

Can India do it, or would India dare to do it? Yes I am an instigator. But what the difference? India and Vietnam are itching to fight China, to confront China. Have you heard of small countries bullying big country?

China is being bullied by all the small countries around her. It is time China carries the big stick and whack the daylight out of these minnows and teach them a hard lesson in realpolitiks. Don't try to bully the giant. Don't try to be a David. David killing Goliath is only a fiction.

Anonymous said...

China is being bullied by all the small countries around her?
You are joking!
Since the day when our chairman Mao stood on TAM(1 Oct 1949),it has been proven so!

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

How many Chinese fishing boats were arrested by the Phillipines, Japan and Vietnam? Try to do that to American fishing boats or pleasure craft. Only the pirates dare do it in Africa.

China has been restraining itself from hitting back at these countries simply because it did not want to be seen a big bully small. That is the weakness of China. And it is inviting adverturism. Every small country is trying to make claims against Chinese claims to the South China Sea islands.

Japan is still clinging to Diaoyutai and the Okinawan chain of islands. Not counting the large land tracts occupied by Russia, Mongolia and India. China is the only superpower that has its land occupied by smaller countries that it could have taken back by force it it wants to.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Hi Jonathan, Singapore cannot stay out of a regional conflict. We are a big power, or punching above our weight. We need to tell China to pack up and go home. We will send our journalists to warn China not to be trouble maker.

Anonymous said...

The communists in China love to learn from LKY famous MANDATE FROM HEAVEN,who isn't?
LKY & Singapore sees $$$ all over China,who isn't?
It is indeed perfect match

Anonymous said...

The People's Liberation Army must be getting fat and lazy by now.

Time to put them into real action and see if they are still the best fighting men in the World.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

That's way I am encouraging the Vietnamese and the Indians to fight the Chinese now. Sure win.

Anonymous said...

All politicians are good in posturing,democracy or nationalism,this is a sure way to win support.

Whether China,India,Vietnam,etc,it does not make any difference.

The only exception that I can possibly think of is perhaps Singapore!

Jonathan said...

1) The ownership of South China Sea (and Diaoyutai) is still in dispute. There is a dispute precisely because different parties all claim to own it. Thus, it is not intelligent to take sides now.

2) Involving in any conflict takes away human life. Not even the USA can guarantee zero-casualty when being involved in any military conflict.

3) Singapore Army is established solely for the purpose of self-defence. I don't want to send our men and NS boys out there for no good reason. South China Sea dispute is not the business of Singapore because Singapore has no claim over its ownership. It will be joke to send Singaporeans to fight a war that they have no stake in.

4) We have not eternal allies and we have not perpetual enemies. Be it India, Vietnam, China or the USA, they are all the same. Our only perpetual enemy is perhaps unjustified war.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Diaoyutai was officially ceded to the Japanese in 1895 under the Treaty of Shimonoseki, after Japan defeated China in a naval battle. Before that, it was Chinese territory. How else can China gave it to Japan if it was not China's, like Hongkong. Taiwan too was occupied by Japan.

At Potsdam, after the Japanese surrender, Japan was to return Diaoyutai, Ryukyus and Taiwan to China. The US took over the administration of Diaoyutai and Ryukyu Islands but subsequently handed them over to Japan instead of China.

The fact is that it was Chinese territory lost in a war, supposed to be returned but went back to Japan due to American treachery. China was America's enemy during the cold war.

Maybe it will only be taken back by another war. Land of conquest were mostly returned to their rightful owners except America, Australia, NZ and many islands still owned by the British, American and European powers, not forgetting Chinese land lost to Russia, India, Mongolia etc etc.

The South China Sea islands belong to a different category of dispute. China was claiming all these island before any of the present countries were countries in the modern sense. China could actually show them the two fingers. It will when it gets stronger and not be intimidated by the Americans.

The Johnny comes lately countries like Vietnam, Phillipines, Malaysia and Indonesia, did not know of their existence when China was claiming them and charting them in its map in the 14th or 15th centuries.

When did these claimants became independent states? 1947, 1957, 1975?

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

A good example to elaborate my point of ignorance is the Orang Asli of Malaysia. If there is no state of Malaya or Malaysia, will they claim to be a country? Secondly, if they did not know the existence of these islands, never visited them, can they make a legitimate claim on them because they suddenly know that there are such islands?

History started with finders keepers and first occupiers be the rightful owners, like the Kiwis and the aborigines in Oz, or the Red Indians of North America.

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