My bookie came to see me for guidance on the Presidential Race. He has faith in my clairvoyance ability and also my skills in fixing numbers. Of course I obliged when there is a big angpow waiting for me.
So I took out a wash basin, filled it with holy water, threw in a few twigs of pomegranate leaves. Then I lighted three joss sticks and got into a prayer for my spiritual guide.
The result of my spiritual trip was most enlightening. 50:50, a touch and go Presidential Race. How does this works out? In the last GE, PAP garnered 60% of popular votes. This time around, they are likely to get only 50% for the following reasons. It is not about electing a govt. That has been confirmed and no risk in electing whoever as the President. It would still be a political contest between the PAP and the non PAPs.
The second point is the lost of faith in the govt and its policies. People are getting very cynical and are questioning how these policies are benefiting them. Many have great doubts. Many too have great doubts in the abilities of the super talents giving the fiascos in the surge in population, high property prices and the lapses/bad policies to build more flats, to provide the infrastructure for the big influx of foreigners. And there are the big losses in our sovereign funds, the failure in our education system to produce top talents leading to such a pathetic state that Singaporeans have to depend on foreigners to come here to help them. Not enough hospitals or not enough lower class wards. There are many more things that have inundated the Singaporean minds.
The third point is the need for a strong President to check on a rogue govt led by a rogue PM. Singaporeans may be daft, or some people may think so. But no Singaporean is going to believe that an independent director handpicked and paid by the management can be an effective watchdog to monitor the wrong doings of the management. This principle is applicable to the Elected Presidency. But some daft Singaporeans will not think, and will still be deceived. Serious and rational thinking Singaporeans, and there are many out there, will want to vote for a truly independent individual that can check on the govt.
The votes will be split evenly for various reasons, between the two pairs of candidates, Tony Tan and Tan Cheng Bock versus Tan Jee Say and Tan Kin Lian. The former have strong links with the govt and the latter are seen as more independent or not related. Now let’s look at the numbers. With 50% each, Tony and Cheng Bock are likely to split their votes between 20:30 and 24:26, likely in favour of the former. In the Jee Say/Kin Lian camp, it could be the same split and would make the contest that more interesting.
What other factors could be thrown into the computation to make the difference? The controversy over Patrick Tan is still hanging over Tony’s head and if there is a whistle blower, this could completely demolish his chances, and the biggest beneficiary will be Cheng Bock. In the case of the rest, anything can happen. Who knows when a monkey will escape from the zoo to accuse one of them of stealing his peanuts? Or some jokers may stand out to complain of losing paper clips.
For the moment it is 50:50 and depending on the combination, both sides will have a candidate that may tip the scale. Will the people vote for a pro PAP President or an independent President? Sorry, wrong choice of words. All the candidates are independent of political parties and are standing on their own. They have no links with any political parties. This is a completely non political election, get it?
The people are quite lucky to have four highly qualified and respectable men, with good reputation and integrity, to choose from. Now who is going to win? Let me toss my dice….