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8/18/2011

Telling the President hopeful's fortune

My bookie came to see me for guidance on the Presidential Race. He has faith in my clairvoyance ability and also my skills in fixing numbers. Of course I obliged when there is a big angpow waiting for me.

So I took out a wash basin, filled it with holy water, threw in a few twigs of pomegranate leaves. Then I lighted three joss sticks and got into a prayer for my spiritual guide.

The result of my spiritual trip was most enlightening. 50:50, a touch and go Presidential Race. How does this works out? In the last GE, PAP garnered 60% of popular votes. This time around, they are likely to get only 50% for the following reasons. It is not about electing a govt. That has been confirmed and no risk in electing whoever as the President. It would still be a political contest between the PAP and the non PAPs.

The second point is the lost of faith in the govt and its policies. People are getting very cynical and are questioning how these policies are benefiting them. Many have great doubts. Many too have great doubts in the abilities of the super talents giving the fiascos in the surge in population, high property prices and the lapses/bad policies to build more flats, to provide the infrastructure for the big influx of foreigners. And there are the big losses in our sovereign funds, the failure in our education system to produce top talents leading to such a pathetic state that Singaporeans have to depend on foreigners to come here to help them. Not enough hospitals or not enough lower class wards. There are many more things that have inundated the Singaporean minds.

The third point is the need for a strong President to check on a rogue govt led by a rogue PM. Singaporeans may be daft, or some people may think so. But no Singaporean is going to believe that an independent director handpicked and paid by the management can be an effective watchdog to monitor the wrong doings of the management. This principle is applicable to the Elected Presidency. But some daft Singaporeans will not think, and will still be deceived. Serious and rational thinking Singaporeans, and there are many out there, will want to vote for a truly independent individual that can check on the govt.

The votes will be split evenly for various reasons, between the two pairs of candidates, Tony Tan and Tan Cheng Bock versus Tan Jee Say and Tan Kin Lian. The former have strong links with the govt and the latter are seen as more independent or not related. Now let’s look at the numbers. With 50% each, Tony and Cheng Bock are likely to split their votes between 20:30 and 24:26, likely in favour of the former. In the Jee Say/Kin Lian camp, it could be the same split and would make the contest that more interesting.

What other factors could be thrown into the computation to make the difference? The controversy over Patrick Tan is still hanging over Tony’s head and if there is a whistle blower, this could completely demolish his chances, and the biggest beneficiary will be Cheng Bock. In the case of the rest, anything can happen. Who knows when a monkey will escape from the zoo to accuse one of them of stealing his peanuts? Or some jokers may stand out to complain of losing paper clips.

For the moment it is 50:50 and depending on the combination, both sides will have a candidate that may tip the scale. Will the people vote for a pro PAP President or an independent President? Sorry, wrong choice of words. All the candidates are independent of political parties and are standing on their own. They have no links with any political parties. This is a completely non political election, get it?

The people are quite lucky to have four highly qualified and respectable men, with good reputation and integrity, to choose from. Now who is going to win? Let me toss my dice….

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

Mr Chua, you are my hero! Your blog is now the fasterest among all blogs. Thank you!

Debbie

Anonymous said...

I think the residual anti-govt sentiment may have enough momentum to tip the scale in favor of TKL & TJS.

Anonymous said...

To me, anyone but Tony Tan.

Honestly, head of GIC now claims he wants to independently protect the reserves from being squandered by GIC just because he changed hats (yeh his kiddish looking bespectacled hat)?

Anyone putting some thought into this will see this inherent conflict of interest.

Cross my fingers and hope the daft and dumb Singaporean will do the right thing this time round.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Hi Debbie, lucky I got it done. Actually Blogger was super efficient to diagnose the fault and reply to me: )

Tony is going to hit a big surprise. This is a test not only of support for him, but also for PAP.

The said...

/// In the last GE, PAP garnered 60% of popular votes. This time around, they are likely to get only 50% for the following reasons. It is not about electing a govt. That has been confirmed and no risk in electing whoever as the President. ///

My bomoh gives me different prediction.

Since there is no fear of a "freak" erection (oops, election) result, the votes should swing the other way - 40% to PAP and 60% to OPP-PAP.

My take:
TJS - 35%
TKL - 25%
TCB - 22%
TKY - 18% (a.k.a. Tan Keng Yam Tony)

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Hi The, your bomoh more powderful than my tangkee man.

This election anything can happen. I am afraid some will end up with bruises all over, and not too dignified. The knives are coming out.

Anonymous said...

Get ready for more character assassinations attempts that will dig out more skeletons in the closet.

Anonymous said...

In that case, their plans will turn out to be 'chao tar'.

If it is a one against one fight between TT and TCB, they think that the outcome may be uncertain. By throwing the other two Ts into the fray, they are hoping to split the opposition votes (or shall I say anti TT voters) and enable TT to get a better advantage.

Now, I am not too sure because from the polls running on Temasek Review, TJS looks to be the hot favourite. Of course those who follow Temasek Review are the enlightened voters, mostly outlaws of the marsh.

There are more than 2 million voters in all and 60% are just as blind as a bat in daylight. Like bats they never want to see the daylight, preferring the darkness that is engulfing us.

Anonymous said...

I feel the earth move.

I'm into something good.

It is coming true.

Anonymous said...

It is hard to believe that tony tan will lose his deposit as some netizens are saying.
BUT,
i will never be surprise if he, tony tan, liked FM george yeo, gets shun by people.
AND
the more tony tan gets endorsed by clans and unions, the more he will piss off the voters.

Anonymous said...

That's true.

When people are angry, spurning is the ultimate result. When people feel that they have, over the last decade especially, always been on the losing end, what else do they care if they lose a little bit more to register their anger.

I would not be surprised that TT might fail to garner the support, whatever the Unions and Clans try to swing the sentiments by coming out into the open to tell everyone they support TT.

It might just piss those disenchanted people off. Like me for example.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

The list of things that are pissing off the people is so long that I will have to take a lot of time to put them here.

Unbelieveable to reach such a state.

50k for a Tan win said...

In GE, govt won a lot of votes. In some areas, the opposition is
not so strong and not known so well. The clear mind will lean
over to the govt. Now, I feel that 60% vote will drop that
there is a very good mix of candidates to choose from. I would be very very surprised if there are more weight to the PAP side.

Anonymous said...

With no handouts, no promises of upgradings, no fear of jobs on the line, no fear of the PAP being voted out and much dissatisfaction still unresolved since the May GE, 50K for a Tan Clan win is a no brainer. The problem is, which Tan from the Tan Clan?

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

My apologies, welcome to the blog 50k for a Tan win.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

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