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8/25/2011

Latest poll numbers

Less than 12 hours from the election campaign and Tan Jee Say is still in the lead with 69%. Overall his votes have slipped by 5% from the day the polls were set up. The other three candidates have a small share each of the 5% votes from Jee Say. Tan Cheng Bock is now at 18%, Tan Kin Lian at 6% and Tony Tan at 5%.

What do these numbers tell? There are a couple of assumptions that can be used to interpret how they would reflect the actual election. One, assuming that all those voting in this poll are anti PAP votes, which is not the case as some still voted for Tony and Cheng Bock is running in second place, and if the overall votes cast against the PAP is 50%, Tan Jee Say is going to garner 34.5% of popular votes. And this is likely to be the base support for Tan Jee Say.

Tan Kin Lian’s position is looking pretty weak and may lose more grounds on actual voting if the voters choose to throw everything with Tan Jee Say.
The big question now is between Tan Cheng Bock and Tony Tan. Theoretically, with all the endorsements, Tony Tan should carry at least 70% of the pro PAP votes. This will put him neck to neck with Jee Say at 35% against Jee Say’s 34.5%.

Tan Cheng Bock will have the balance of 15% plus the anti PAP votes of 9% (18% x 50) giving him 24%. His only chance to be in the running will be to take away more votes from Tony. To give him a real chance of catching up with Jee Say, he will have to take near to 50% of the pro PAP votes, which will give him 34% (25 + 9). 40% will not be good enough.

However, if Tony’s share of the pro PAP votes goes down to 60%, his total is going to be 30% (60% x 50) which will make him precariously close to losing to Tan Jee Say.

What is quite sure in this election is that 40% will be casting against the PAP camp with a likelihood of 50% this time. The pro PAP camp can count on 30% solid support plus another 20% swing votes. So my conclusion is that it will be Tan Jee Say versus Tony Tan or Tan Cheng Bock. It will be very close and if the anger is strong enough against the PAP, Jee Say is likely to be in with Cheng Bock pulling down Tony’s vote but not enough to lift him over Jee Say.

My take is on Jee Say taking a slight edge, beating Tony and Cheng Bock by a nose. But, if the polls here is representing 70% of all voters, less the 30% of hard core PAP supporters, then Jee Say is going to romp in with a comfortable 49% of votes count.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

Someone commented that all those endorsements really mean nothing, just as all the polls are basically from one particular group of either pro or anti PAP voters.

Those endorsements by Clans, SMEs could basically just mean the top hats, say 1,2,3,4,5, supporting TT but not all the lower ranks. So, how many votes really do they represent?

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Someone commented that it will be a waste of talent if Tony becomes the President. We all know that the President, according to the constitution, can do very little except veto power.

The financial talent and experience of Tony will be wasted in that position. Tony should remain in GIC to manage the hundreds of billions of our reserves, to grow the reserves.

Now, whose bright idea is it to ask Tony to move out from GIC to become a primarily ceremonial president that has no role to the management of the billions in GIC?

If it is Tony's idea, I would like to ask him if his expertise and experience are better utilised in GIC or in the Istana?

Anonymous said...

TT must become the EP in order for GIC to remain mysteriously unaccountable for the $60B losses.

How else could they cover their arses with someone in the mold of Ong Teng Cheong digging around.

So, TT's move could be considered astute, but as they say, man proposes, God disposes.

Anonymous said...

TJS 69 divided by 3 = 33
TCB 18 multiplied by 1.8 = 32.4
TT 5 multipled by 6 = 30
TKL 6 multiplied by 1.2 = 7.2

Adjustment (100)
TJS 31
TCB 31
TT 31
TKL 7
Winning margin = Less than 1.0% or 10000 valid votes.
Cheers!

Anonymous said...

And because of that,
a historically first nation-wide recount in Singapore Election History.
Majulah Singapura!

Anonymous said...

Please do not doubt tony tan for vying the Presidency on his own volition.

At over 70 years in age, many would have wanted to retire and if not, will prefer to take on a much lighter job with little or no responsibility. This, of course is conventional or rather, the most common thinking of common man. And I do not see anything uncommon about him.

I even believe tony tan has a pair of steady hands, however, his walking gait is kind of wobbly.

patriot

Anonymous said...

Hahaha

Waving hands is a lighter job for any wobbly bean. I hope he does not find the rubber stamp too heavy for him to hold.

Anyway, steady hands or not, it all boils down to the same thing. Still no clout President.

When the time comes to act when faced with a rouge Cabinet, he will be removed first to facilitate the rouges raiding the reserves. Am I understanding correctly?

Anonymous said...

as i read your piece, i found myself reading faster and faster and seeing, in my mind's eye, four horses running at a race course!

Jinko Low said...

why havent the worker's party endorsed one of the four candidates? Are they playing it safe?

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Hi Jinko Low, welcome to the blog.

My guess is that the WP does not want to be accused of endorsing any candidate in an election that is supposed to be non political. They have the decency to respect the principles of the presidential election without trying to rig it in their favour.

Anonymous said...

My predictions are correct:
*A nation-wide recount (except those counting stations obviously led by more than 2%)
*A lass than 1% winning margin or 10000 votes.