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3/25/2008

Brewing of a perfect storm

The political crisis is not over yet, just beginning. And Trengganu may be the state that is going to tip the scale and send Abdullah and UMNO into the oblivion. The royalties, led by the Agong, are standing up after being silenced by Mahathir for many years. And Abdullah is unlikely to be in the same league as Mahathir to keep them in the closet. The Agong, who is also the Sultan of Trengganu, is not going to appoint Abdullah's nominee as the MB and has appointed Ahmad Said instead. Any contest by Abdullah that this is unconstitutional could see a constitutional crisis and a fallout with the Palace. The very likely consequence is that Ahmad Said will take with him 12 UMNO MPs and may join PAS or PKR to form an opposition state govt. That would put Abdullah's govt in jeopardy, literally hanging on a string. And if the speculation of a cross over by East Malaysian MPs, Anwar is going to be the next PM in a few months' time. And UMNO will be irrelevant. So will MCA, MIC and Gerakan.

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