In the long run, we will all be dead
The new proposal to peg the CPF interest rate to bonds assumes that in the long run bond rates will perform better and CPF interest will be higher than the current guaranteed 4%. Who is the wise guy who claims that this made in heaven assumption must be true? Obviously must be some wet behind the ears talents who are still living in their dreams. Haven't we learnt that in the long run we will all be dead? Haven't we learnt that the same logic and assumption had been flouted to the people many years back and many times over, and all proven disastrously wrong? Remember COWEC scheme, a company employee welfare scheme that guaranteed a return higher than the CPF by investing this fund in stocks. The assumption was that in the long run the stocks would outperform all kinds of investments and the returns would be much higher. The fact that the scheme was buried and forgotten spoke loudly of this assumption. At one time, some analysts put up many charts and papers saying that over a 30 year period, investments in stocks would give a return of 30%. That let to the opening of the floodgate and CPF savings were poured into the stock market. There was an euphoria. But not for long. Many lost their life savings in the stock market before the long term return could run its proper course. It was a terribly big mistake and many CPF account holders were bled dry. Then this mad rush and faith in the stock market were quickly shelved and restrictions were placed to curb using CPF money in stock investment. The rest is history. Do not believe in the long run. The only certainty is uncertainty and death.