2/13/2006

general election: prelim round 7

george yeo, the affable gentleman minister, said he will work very hard for every vote. he will not take voters for granted. this is a big contrast from the initial outburst of arrogance, that pap will win in any contest that we heard. perhaps the feedback has its effect. or maybe it is just george yeo and his sense of humility. but why is aljunid a hot seat that attracts the opposition? they failed the first time for technical reasons. what a shame and what a fish. why would wp do itself in on a simple procedural matter? is there something fishy inside wp? in my perception, george yeo is a very bright and sensible minister. i even rated him as a sure win minister. but why would the opposition want to challenge him when there are very obvious weak and controversial ministers to take on? did the opposition reads the ground differently, that george yeo is weak in aljunid and the ground is sweet? or, someone fed misinformation to wp to take on a strong minister, thus wasted their valuable and limited resources in a sure lose contest? there is something very strange in wp's strategy. it defies logic and sensibilities to contest against george yeo. but the worker's party may known something we don't. or they could be misled.

12 comments:

Goh Meng Seng said...

Hi there,

No matter where WP goes, there will always be "strong ministers"; PAP could simply re-deploy their people accordingly as it has always been the case for past elections.

Thus whether or not it is George Yeo or somebody else, it doesn't really matters as it is "out of our control".

What matters most is the ground. With Aljunied encompassing Hougang, there is indeed spillover effects (of Low TK) into it. People could see for themselves that Hougang under WP Low TK is pretty well maintained.

And PAP is not stupid and that is why they will send a "strong" minister like George Yeo to set a siege on Hougang.

Thus, it is a matter of judgement. As far as I am concerned, the ground in Aljunied is pretty "neutral", it could turn either sides depending on lots of factors.

Goh Meng Seng

Elfred said...

Goh,

That's why I say you shouldn't be in politics...

Have you not heard 集天人把天关必有猴孙堵洞口。There are not many elements the likes of Mr Ong Teng Cheong or Mr Tony Tan nowadays in PAP for deployment. It's one thing they block you, it's another you head straight to the doors.

And please lah... In this sort of compact environment, when tiny Singapore is ready for a change of tide, anywhere will WP find support, not necessarily around Hougang. If it's those HGCC thingys WP want... then that's too shortsighted.

BTW... just curious as you'd know Elfred... exactly whose smart idea is this? Mr Low's?

奇兵袭空穴,出其不意,才有胜算。

The reason why 'no matter where WP goes, there will be always "strong ministers"' just show how politically clueless you are.

I agree with Reddie. This George Yeo is trying very hard, and too cute to be disposed off so easily. If he kena-ed out, then maybe heaven is blind.

redbean said...

hi meng seng,

welcome to the discussion. fighting in whichever constituency is a strategy that wp knows best to do. fighting one around hougang has its synergy. but singapore is so small. what has happened in hougang and what thia khiang has done, people know. so fighting in another area really makes no difference except for logistics, running around.

given a choice, it is best not to go head on with a strong minister. you may need to play a game of hide and seek on nomination day. when time permits. at the last hour, if force to commit, and if pap has to change tact, it still disrupts their ground work done when they switch minister. it also can be a rallying point when it happens.

if you look at my assessment, it is clear who are the weaker ministers. maybe you would not agree.

never fight when your opponent is strongest unless cornered. the odds in other grcs are much better.

redbean said...

let me add another point.

it is about the best time now for opposition to take the fight to the grcs. but make sure you have enough good candidates. 20 good men is all you need to go for 4 or 5 grcs.

that's what i will do. half of the ministers are at risk. the ground has shifted and you could sense that the people are crying for good men to come forward.

Elfred said...

To be true... I still don't believe they are so seow to attack AMK, for instance. But maybe they would really hit Aljunid.

I agree, Mr Red. There is no such thing as heroic. 避其锐,怠其锋芒,攻其短,应势而下。强攻者必有折损,于弱势方不利。将少兵弱惟速战速决,集中于要害。这才是大局。民若将变,其实攻哪里还不是一样?胡乱强攻不过示人以无知罢矣。

redbean said...

i think if they want to take on aljunid, it is better to go for tanjong pagar or amk. at least there is the element of a surprise and you just do not know what the people are thinking.

george yeo and aljunid are more predictable than tanjong pagar and amk.

Elfred said...

Not true lah to use Tangung Pagar and AMK to compare. Say, Mr George may not that good in political field, but as a person 他还像人, not to say, 他也尽力。 When there are other places, why nia nia must attack Aljunid?

It shows in WP's strategy as commandor-style-defensive. Which is, even if Mr Lee KY is the MP leading Aljunid, WP won't care. Which is sending a strong signal, WP will go all the way to defend Mr Low's Hougang as central piece, and hope to use that as an area of influence/support. But Mr Low doesn't has that sort of leadership radiance as the MM, which is the problem.

Which reflects the issue of WP. See?

redbean said...

george may not have the strong presence of hsien loong or lky. but he is less controversial and just about right in all things.

hsien loong and lky have a lot of very strong supporters. but there are a lot of people who are on the other extremes. these will balance out each other. then the middle ground will be the decider. and any earth shaking events can change the voters mind.

that's why tanjong pagar and amk can have upsets. bu pa yi wan, zi pa wan yi.

Elfred said...

I have met no less than a dozen out there who are utter and bitter about the Lees, and they are all commoners, not involved in politics, whom I am refering here.

But here and again, as I mentioned, that even if WP really take out the PM, so what? The machinery will definitely go bizzard against WP and WP will (assuming it won every seats it contested for) still be too weak for a premature confrontation.

I don't know for you, but I definitely don't see any wisdom in such strategy in WP's stance.

But it's not my problem. If not for a balance of power, I can't be bothered if Goh MS and Chia TL-laden WP would disappear overnight or what. They obviously ain't politically apt enough to replace the government.

Some may not like it here, but I'd be frank and as blunt.

redbean said...

elfred,

have you seen the immenseness of a dam? what it fears is a small leak, a small hole. once it is punctured, the pressure of one hole can bring down a dam.

should tanjong pagar or amk be brought down, its psychological impact is beyond your imagination. the people will it as a change of mandate of heaven. and all things will come crumbling down. if it ever happen, if pap will to lose its mandate, it could start from these two grcs.

Elfred said...

Dear Reddie, of cos I understand what commoners think. But that's not going to be it. I am very very very frustrated, which is obvious. But so?

Taking out a AMK or both AMK and Tanjung Pagar is useless. Perhaps MM Mahathir will be another and decides to resign/retire, but the main issue is, those remnants will be very very huge still. Instead of changing tide, WP (for discussion sake) could just end up reverse a conducive tide for opposition into a tsunami for opposition.

Don't you understand? PM and MM, and even SM, should be squeezed out, not directly confront? A hero who really kills whatever dragons ends up weak for the minions in swamps.

The psychological aspect is not only on the people, but also on the Singaporeans which consist of the incumbant remnants!

With Mahathir gone, it doesn't mean people will cheer UMNO's fall!

I find such thinking very very... funny.

I reiterate this... To dedeat PAP, you need real good elements, real and steady push, real power, and very steady strategy. The PAP has already created the tide for opposition, why go and reverse it? Makes no sense.

Elfred said...

Reddie, there are replica by myself, do kindly feel free to just remove the replica postings. Regards.