99 year lease properties are transient wealth, a mirage

 Singapore will end up like Japan. So much investment in property which crashed like a house of cards after the Japanese economy tanked, and also took down the stock market, after which Japan could not recover after more than three decades since 1993, mired in stagnation.

Stimulation after stimulation failed to work. From Abenomics to Kishidamics, it is the same result. And Japan is getting desperate by going against USA and EU sanctions on Russia by buying Russian energy and some are talking about Japan joining BRICS as well. Wonder whether that is good or bad for BRICS. Of course it is good for Japan, but remember who is the dog owner.

Yes, there are differences between Japan and Singapore, and I am not going to dwell on the disaster brought about by the 'Plaza Accord', as I am no economist. Singapore always claim we are keeping a tight lid on property prices, or so they say. But the rise, even in HDB prices is just nothing short of ridiculous, just two words - 'still affordable' close the argument.

Maybe they work on the premise that just importing more people to prop up private property prices and create the demand, so that higher prices rising will trickle into the HDB market to boost resale prices, so new flats can be sold more expensively. The market dictates the price, they always say. What is subsidised housing supposed to mean?

But I fear the result will be the same as Japan. Property price rises cannot be without limits. As they say, what goes up must eventually come down. Maybe I am too pessimistic. Everything is so 'FINE'. Japan was equally superfine before the crash.

Anonymous 

Jeffrey Sach - A plea for Peace

 

A 2 minute Plea for Peace in Ukraine and the world. American Professor Jeffrey Sach cannot stomach it any longer. And he is not alone. Peace is just a simple thing to have, but so difficult to keep given the sinister agenda of the evil American Empire. The majority of Americans are standing up to tell their evil warmongering politicians that they are not with them. The average Americans want Peace like the people of the world. They are not going to continue to be misled by the evil men and women in Washington braying for war everyday and everywhere. These evil politicians are telling the Americans and the silly people of the world that war is for Peace and they must have perpetual wars to bring about Peace. And the unthinking are still believing this evil American myth. 

But the Americans are now awoke to the evilness of their politicians, good for nothing clowns in Washington, everyday thumping their chests to prove their manhood, that they are tough, but to send innocent American boys and girls to wars and to die for them, while they stay in American homeland shouting war, war, war, war is peace.

The tide is turning against the evil warmongers and the sillies that believed in these warmongers. Peace is Peace. War is not Peace. The whole world must be united and stand up to these warmongers and murderers of children and the innocents. This is a Peace call to stop the war in Ukraine and wars everything started by the evil American Empire. People of the whole world, including Americans, must stop all wars and dump the evil and useless men and women in Washington into the sea of ignominy.

India Number One .... in population

 By end of 2023, India would be the world's number one most populous nation, over taking China. China would become second to India. And India would have the most young people in a country, a key factor that can turn India into a super power. Though this may be a big task to keep hundreds of millions of young people employed, India has nothing to worry about.

Singapore would be there to offer a helping hand. Singapore needs talents and wants to increase its population to 20 million, or at least this is in the thought of some talented Singaporean thinkers. Having a big populations is always a good thing for tiny Singapore, without any downside. Big population in India is a welcoming blessing to Singapore. Singapore is very happy to welcome all the Indian talents, all the unemployed Indian talents, to help no talent Singapore to keep its economy bustling and to stay as a first world country. It would be a win win formula.

At least the property prices would stay high and go higher, even for HDB leasers or owners. Now that HDB prices have hit S1m, now HDB owners can look forward to $2m as the next target. And the construction industry will continue to boom and the cycle would even be bigger and last longer. And why not, when there are also many Indian labours willing to come here to help to build Singapore into a never ending building boom.

And Indians have a natural advantage. They can speak English, which is going to be, or likely to be a criteria for citizenship. The political scene would be very lively with politics as a natural talent in Indians. There may be even Indian political parties formed by new Indian citizens. And Singapore would no longer have the perennial angst of 'Singapore not ready for Indian PM' when Indians become a majority here. Meritocracy would be institutionalised and practised to perfection. No more entitlement mentality that one can have political appointments in waiting, without competition. And those that cannot speak good English would look like ducks out of water.

The special symbiotic relations between Singapore and India would enter a new strategic level for the good of Singapore. Singapore would be prosperous for another century with so many Indian talents available and happily wanting to come to Singapore and Singapore opening its legs wide wide to welcome them. CECA is a win win formula for India and Singapore.  Singapore can have all the Indian talents and India can export its unemployed to Singapore and its unemployment solved.

Oh, it would be good news for Singaporean Grab drivers too, if they still can afford to buy a car to drive the talented new citizens around. Special courses can be designed to upgrade their skills in handling luggages, opening car doors, keep the cars clean, how to greet customers and learn how to chat with the customers etc etc and how to improve chances of bigger tips.

China must be self reliant on everything

China must be self reliant on everything, and I mean everything. Never, ever rely on the USA, the West or Japan. What the USA and the West are doing to China, especially since Trump became President, is actually a blessing in disguise, as it is forcing the Chinese to go their own way in chip manufacturing as well. It is the push that is making the Chinese move faster, makes them do things better and produce things even cheaper than the West, by making chip manufacturing the priority for China going forward. Who is competing with the USA and the West now in EV, solar panels, car batteries and consumer products? And guess who will be competing with the Chip manufacturers in the USA, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea going forward?
We actually did not stop to realise that the Germans were able to reach the pinnacle of their industrial might, all based on and built upon the availability of cheap energy from Russia. That is one fact that had been trivalised as all the talk is German ingenuity that brought them to being the biggest economy in the EU. Now we are seeing the real picture with Russian cheap energy flowing East. Like the Germans, Chinese ingenuity can also match the Germans and cheap energy from Russia is fueling an even more competitive China than ever before. Can the EU now compete with China, India and others with energy so expensive for Europe?

The USA and the West had attempted to isolate the Chinese in many fields, but have failed to destroy China. Chip sanctioning will be the same. Five years down the road and we shall see the carnage in the chip manufacturing competition in the West, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, once the Chinese market is no longer available.

Now, there is a joke on social media regarding Macron's China trip. Macron could not visit China without his 'mummy' following him to keep a watch on his movements. The USA told his 'mummy' aka Ursula to go with Macron and keep a watch on him. And she insisted on going with Macron, who could not refuse, unlike what Olaf Scholz did to him when Scholz said no way you are following me. So much talk about EU unity when they do not even trust each other. Macron is said to be the weakest French President ever, totally under the USA's control.

It was later reported that to prevent his 'mummy' spoiling the show, Xi invited Macron to tea without his 'mummy' in tow. And they talked in private, making some important deals that the USA is particularly unhappy with. We know about the Airbus helicopter deal, but one big largely missing on MSM deal, was the US$500 million subsea internet cable to rival the USA. Once this is thrashed out between France and China, China will start the construction and many are saying that this will be completed way ahead of the USA rival project, knowing the Chinese expertise in infrastructure building. The only proviso is whether Macron can hang on long enough or subject to a regime change, in which case a stooge would be installed to kill the project, like the Germans did with Nord Stream 2. China must not be too trusting with Macron anyway. Whites are whites and they have forked tongues.

Why America’s big companies keep getting bigger

The irony of the Silicon Valley Bank saga is now complete. The crisis started inside the American tech sector’s favourite bank, but the government rescue has benefited Big Tech the most. As calm returns to the market, fuelled by megacap tech stocks, investors are naturally relieved. They need to be aware, however, of where a system built on bailouts is heading.

Even two decades ago, capitalism was marked by boom-bust cycles that disrupted incumbents and created space for upstarts. While still a ubiquitous word, “disruption” is finally fading as churn in the market stalls. The big beneficiaries of post-crisis rescues are big, established companies — and this is not how capitalism is supposed to work.

After the government stepped in on March 10 to rescue SVB, megacap stocks had one of their best runs ever. Today, all of the top five US companies are tech businesses and together they represent more than 20 per cent of the stock market — the highest concentration since the 1960s and more than double the figure a decade ago.

The decline in competitive churn is a side-effect of the rescue culture that has been growing since the 1980s. Ever since the US Federal Reserve stepped in to prop up the market after the 1987 crash, the stock market has grown dramatically, from half the size of the US economy to two times larger at its peak in 2020. One might assume an expanding market should create room for more churn, but no, not in America.

The number of US companies that remain in the top 10 from one decade to the next has risen steadily, from just three in 1990 to six at the end of the 2010s. And while churn has weakened in the US, it remains relatively robust across much of the world. From the start to the end of the 2010s, just two companies remained on the top 10 list in Japan, four in Europe, four in China and two in the global list, Microsoft and Alphabet.

Today, the top five US companies are bigger than the next five by the largest margin since the early 1980s. The top two alone account for nearly half the market cap of the top 10, up from 35 per cent at the start of the pandemic. Apple is now number one, and is nearly six-times larger than UnitedHealth Group, in 10th place. Three decades ago, Exxon was number one but just over twice the size of the tenth company, BellSouth.

Competing explanations for the rise of Big Tech include the natural advantage of size on digital networks, where companies can add customers at negligible added cost. But “network effects” can’t explain why three out of every four US industries — and not just in the tech industry — have been consolidating in the hands of a few companies. Sweeping government rescues that benefit incumbents can.

Anonymous