His definition of a failed China is when its economic growth fell to 3 or 4%! Is this not an economic truism? The growth of all mature economies would slow to this level or lower, like the American and European economies. Is this Morimoto saying that the American, European and Japanese economies have failed, failed states and out to do mischiefs? What are the growth numbers of these failed economies? 1 or 2%? Should China's economy grow at 1 or 2%, it will be in the good company of the Americans, Europeans and of course Japan.
His supposedly academic hypothesis, that China would resort to aggression if it fails as a country is pure bullshit. There were historical evidence and facts that the rise of big powers, Japan included prior to WW2, was built on conquest. The Europeans left Europe to invade and conquer other people and seized their land. They then went to the Americas and killed the natives to take over their land. Japan also tried that, killing Chinese and other Asians and SE Asians to want to rule the world.
The only exception in the rise of big powers is China. China has risen and other than military might, China is equal to the Americans or better in many areas. China now has more money to spend for sure and is using its money to help to rebuild the infrastructure of the whole world. America is as good a bankrupt.
China's peaceful rise is not through military means or wars of conquest. It is through sheer grit and industry of its people, in being the factory of the world. The few skirmishes with its two neighbours had nothing to do with its rise as a big power. Have no doubt that China has risen, peacefully.
The evidence against failed states is the reverse. No failed state has the chance to do mischief or conduct wars of destruction. The British, French, Spanish and Portuguese went out on a limp. The last two big powers that failed badly were Germany and Japan. They too could not do any mischief as the Americans made them virtual colonies till today. The Americans are their masters after defeating them.
Things have changed now with the American changing their agenda. In their attempt to isolate and contain China, they have unleashed the Japanese and allowed them to rearm, to remilitarise and consequently to do mischief and to conduct wars.
Would China be destructive should it fail, a story that all westerners and Japanese are hoping and praying everyday that it would happen. They even cursed their gods for allowing China to rise as a big power. Hopefully this day would not come in the foreseeable future. Should China fail, it would have to suffer the same fate as the Japanese, to become a colony of the victor. There will be no chance to do mischief. The Japanese knew that very well, as a semi colony of the American Empire. The American Emperor is always there, in charge and calling the shot.
History, historical facts are there to say that no failed state would be given a chance to be mischievous or to be destructive. Look at the failed states in the Middle East, Iraq and Libya.
Here is the silly and pretentious article by this Andy Morimoto, loaded with mischiefs, from Yahoo News.
"Question: Can China 'Fall' Peacefully? What will be the geopolitical implications for China, its neighbors and the United States if the Chinese economy tanks? Would China be taken off of its supposed collision course, or would conflict remain unavoidable?
The idea that China cannot rise peacefully has become something of an international-relations truism. The story here is simple: as China’s economy grows, its military will follow, and just as other great powers have used force to achieve their foreign-policy goals, so, too, will China. Yet while much ink has been spilled to explore the security implications of China’s rise, relatively few attempts have been made to examine the potential effects of a sudden and prolonged economic downturn. This might be about to change.
As the Wall Street Journal recently reported, China’s growth will decline sharply in the coming decade, from 7.7 percent in 2013 to 3.9 percent between 2020 and 2025. Some analysts are more pessimistic, projecting future growth rates as low as 1.6 or 1.7 percent. (To put these numbers in perspective, China grew at an average annual rate of 10.2 percent from 1980 to 2011.) These trends have led some at the National Interest to claim that China is headed for collapse and that we may be approaching the end—not a delay—of China’s economic rise...."