Hougang: You are not listening

On paper, Desmond Choo should have walked away with Hougang quite comfortably. There were so many things going for him. The PM, DPM and the whole PAP machinery were speaking and rooting for him. The whole war chest of the govt was in his pocket, so to speak, to spruce up the Singapore slum in Hougang, a neglected constituency left to its own fancy and limited resources. Who can resist the kind of goodies that Desmond is rolling out, or going to roll out for them?



The main media’s courage alone would have won the election for him too. This was not in the case of Png Eng Huat, who was accused of dishonesty and lack of integrity, two factors that would have thrown him out if he were to seek employment or wanted to go into business with anyone. He was written off like a leper.



And what could Png Eng Huat offer except for more of the same? And Desmond Choo warned the Hougangkia that that was what they would get for the next 4 years if they did not elect him.



And the controversies of WP having internal quarrels, party members resigning, Poh Lee Guan collecting his donation slip and could have gone on to challenge Png in a three corner fight. Then the leak of CEC minutes being aired everywhere. This is not just to discredit Png, but also to tell the voters that WP could be infiltrated by moles, a hopeless party that could not guard even against traitors within their ranks. The worst was being accused of being a racist party. That could have been very costly.



All said, with the cards stacked against Png Eng Huat, what was left was the loyalty to Low Thia Kiang and the WP, and the hearts of the Hougangkia. Would they buy the goodies offered and change course? Would they forget the 20 years of neglect, penalties for voting the WP, and threats of more of the same?



There is also a bigger agenda at stake, where is Singapore heading? Are the voters happy with the govt, the direction it is taking, the policies and the interests of the people? And, are they confident that this govt will be there to serve them and bring about a better life for everyone? The big picture was also in play.



The Hougangkia voted against immediate short term gains. They rejected all the offers and promises. They voted for change, and for having to bear with the consequences that they have lived with for 21 years. There is some chivalry left, a sense of justice and fair play, a sense of righteousness, a hope that things can be better with a change in govt in an uncertain future.



The other opposition parties also played their parts by not throwing in a spanner in a three corner fight. It makes the choice of the Hougangkia much straight forward. The victory is the victory of the Hougangkia and those who wanted a regime change. They wanted change, but change in their own terms, not something to be bargained for. They wanted to chart their own course and the course of the country, a new course, not this one.



Desmond Choo gained 3%. In absolute terms, the gain was 124 votes more than his last election. For all the efforts and distractions, this is too insignificant to call a meaningful gain. The PAP has failed in a big way with this kind of result. It is painting on the wall.



2016 is going to see a dramatic change in political fortunes. It will be an election to count the number of GRCs falling, and the ministers that go with them. I have not been so sure about this trend of thought until this by election.



This by election is part of a bigger scheme of things to come. It is a test bed on the emotions of the people with Hougang as a small sample. Some may dismiss Hougang as too small, isolated and does not represent the whole of the island. It may be, but it still represents a big shift in the political mindset and aspiration of the common people. Look at the crowd at the informal WP kopitiam HQ and those in the PAP HQ. The difference is stark. It is the people versus the droids. It is the tide of a spontaneous people uprising against a regime gone bad and its machine. And Hougang is a confirmation that things will not be the same again. It is not going to be a status quo in the next 4 years running up to the GE in 2016.



The only minister that may be quietly smiling could be Tharman. Hsien Loong and Chee Hean are looking very likely to lose their GRCs. As things are today, not many ministers will be around after the next GE. Tharman could be the next PM in a drastically shrunk govt with a small majority in Parliament. Hougang is going to set the ball rolling.

More of the same for Hougang for another 4 years

Desmond Choo has improved his score from 35% to 38% in the by election. His strategy is working, albeit a bit slower than expected. But it is testimony that the same strategy will work and he will gain more votes in the next election.

And what would be in store for Hougang in the next 4 years prior to the GE? There will be two MPs, an official and an unofficial MP serving them. The latter would definitely work harder to want to win more voters to his side.

There will also be more of the same, more porridges will be served, hearing aids and maybe something better. And as for upgradings and queues for more govt goodies, subsidies and handouts, it will be business as usual.

Hougang cannot expect many changes given the constraints of the WP’s party and its budget. But they will get by and move on. Any change coming to Hougang will be in the next GE, when they vote in Desmond Choo, or when there is a regime change with the WP forming the govt.

For the time being, the PAP will live by its slogan ‘Always here for you’. It is so unfair that Hougang is having the service of two MPs. The only irony is that it is still the step son and will be kind of a ‘run down’.  People may ask, how can that be, with two MPs and one always there for them. Hougang should be the best of all the constituencies.

Oops, forgot to mention that Png Eng Huat of the WP has been elected as the new MP of Hougang with 62% majority. And the Hougangkia have chosen to be daft again.

The hard truth

This world is unfair. So accept it. There will be those who are able and become extremely rich. And there will be those who are unable and become extremely poor. The income gap is unavoidable. High property price is unavoidable. High COE price is also unavoidable.

Actually I am not against an unfair world with an unfair system, as long as I am enjoying the unfairness and benefitting from it. Anyone who is benefitting from an unfair system has no reason to complain. They should actually shut up and pretend that nothing happens. Or better, just convince the losers that life is good and everything is affordable. Like $1000 pm income can afford a 4 rm flat or this is the best place for poor people.

This is a natural truth, a hard truth. Another hard truth is that those who are not receiving their fair share of the unfair system should kpkb. This is also natural. 

The existence of both groups is like the thesis, anti thesis and synthesis of dialectical materialism. The wider the income gap, the quicker it reaches the climax, the greater will be the anti thesis forces to forge a new synthesis. This is also a natural hard truth. But those beneficiaries of such inequality would not or could not see this, refuse to see it or try to prolong this state of affair for as long as they could, and be on the right side of the inequality.

Now you know why winners have no issue with inequality but losers have. The tug and pull is an ongoing process. It is normal that the winners will have all the resources to keep the status quo for their benefits. No need to apologise for it. It is just a hard truth and is unfair. So what? So what can the losers do about it? Only winners talk about hard truth as a reality in their comfort zone and that losers must accept it as the status quo and be grateful that it is not worst.

Hougang’s political demography

In the last election, WP won 65% of popular votes in Hougang leaving PAP’s Desmond Choo with only 35%. This may look innocuous enough but on careful scrutinizing, it is actually a very tight situation for the PAP.

The general distribution of voters between the PAP and opposition is normally a 30% hard core supporters for each side and leaving the balance 40% as the fence sitters or swing votes. Applying this general pattern, PAP was only able to win 5% of the 40% swing votes. In this scenario the optimists in PAP camp would think there is room for improvement, to move the 5% a few notches up.

On the other hand, the WP can at most win the 5% from PAP and stripping PAP to the skin of its teeth. This will be the worst case scenario this weekend for the PAP. Anything less is unthinkable and will send a signal that it is all over for the PAP.

Another probable distribution in the case of Hougang, which is an unusual constituency, is that WP has a hardcore support of 45% against a PAP’s 35%, leaving a balance of 20% swing votes. If this is the case, in the last election PAP was only able to hold on to its hard core supporters and WP had a clean sweep of the swing voters. All the lose votes went to WP. This means that PAP was not making any headway with the fence sitters at all.

And the outcome of this by election could see PAP at 35% again or winning some of the swing votes from the WP. It would need to win 15% of the 20% fence sitters to have a chance of winning Hougang. Hougang is likely to be retained as WP needs only 6% from the swing voters to retain the seat. For WP to take anything less than 5% from the swing voters is likely to be remote.

My assessment is that WP should retain the seat of Hougang but will find it very difficult to better the result of the GE as that would mean eating into the hard core supporters of the PAP camp. Desmond is likely to keep his 35% with a +/- 3% either way.

Horror! China’s economy slowing down

The World Bank has issued a warning to stupid Asian countries that China’s economy is slowing down. What it is saying is that these economies would be dragged down because China’s economy is going down. China is going to be in deep trouble and will hurt other Asian economies as well.

Now, would the shitty economies that are going bankrupt one by one in Europe be hurting the Asian countries? Definitely not. Even when the US barely achieved a 1-2% growth would not hurt the Asian economies.

Okay, China’s is going to have a hard landing as they prayed. They have been praying and hoping that China’s economy will collapse and their wish is coming true. How hard is this hard landing, and how bad is the slow down? The official report of the World Bank cuts China’s growth from 8.4% to 8.2%! Oh my God, what a pathetic figure of growth numbers. Only 8.2% growth! This is disastrous. What a badly managed economy, such miserable growth.

Now which country in the world is going to chalk more than a 5% growth? Any country out there? You mean there is no other country out there that can achieve a 5% growth rate and China’s 8.2% growth is so bad that the World Bank needs to issue a warning?

What kind of joke is this? Any country that can attain a 4 or 5% growth number will likely be trumpeting to the world on how well it has performed. 8.2% is not good enough, is bad? Yawn.