9/19/2015

The SDP team that could not have lost

The GE is over, the results are cast in stone. Should have let it to rest and move on. I just want to make a last comment on the SDP’s Holland Bukit Timah team that I wrote earlier that could have taken down the PAP team. Not only that they did not, they fared worst than the team in 2011 and that made the result so much more disturbing. Technically, the SDP team had all corners covered, a medical professional in Professor Paul Tambyah that was a head above Vivian, a woman candidate in Chong Wai Fung to match Sim Ann, a most feared opposition candidate in Chee Soon Juan and a Malay candidate in Sidek Mallek.

The SDP team was carefully crafted to counter the PAP team. With Vivian and his political bloops, he would not be able to stand up against Tambyah, at the very best they would both split the votes evenly. Sim Ann had an edge for being the known factor but many voters were turned off by her antics during the rallies. She too could not gain much advantage over the SDP candidate for the female votes. And Sidek Mallek would have made a clean sweep of the Malay votes as none in the PAP team could be picking them up. Chee Soon Juan’s return would be well placed to increase the anti PAP votes. The SDP could not fall lower than the 30% hard core opposition supporters. How could the team get only 33% of the votes, 6% lesser than the 2011 team?  It just did not make sense. There was no weakness in the team unlike in 2011.

With a hard core of 30% as base, just the Malay votes would take it to near 40%. All Chee Soon Juan and Tambyah needed to do was to bring 5% each and they would be neck to neck with the PAP and likely to win.

The 33% meant that practically all the Malay votes went to the PAP. It also meant that Chee Soon Juan and Tambyah could not convince the voters to give them any vote and actually lost more votes to the PAP team.

I have discussed the reasons for a 10% swing votes, 4% due to new citizens and 6% due to the goodies handed out and changes in some govt policies. The 10% swing would mean the PAP team adding on 5% to the 61% in the last GE and the SDP losing 5% from its 39%, ending with 34%, still one 1% more than the final 33%.

If the demographic distribution of Malay voters was even, there should be a 10% Malay votes in the GRC to square off the 10% swing, and the result should be more or less the same as the last GE.

The final result was just too incredible and unbelievable. This must be the biggest mystery of this GE. It was like a strange event in the Bermuda Triangle that defied all logic and reasons. How could a SDP team that was technically superior or at worst equal to the PAP team lost so badly?

Call it a miraculous win for the PAP team. The other mystery must be the near loss of the WP team in Aljunied GRC. The voters could not switch camp just like that, and without a big crisis. The AHPETC was no crisis but a red herring. The voters of Aljunied were not so daft not to see it to affect their voting decision.


Yes, the truth is stranger than fiction.

25 comments:

Anonymous said...

This must be the biggest mystery of this GE.
RB

No mystery lah, because majority voters are asking themselves the following few questions.

1. Not being from the ruling party and with SDP contesting only 11 out of 89 seats, can Chee Soon Juan as MP serve them better than a PAP MP?
2. When even a stronger WP can screw up running a Town Council, can SDP do better than WP, let alone PAP?
3. Of what use is Chee Soon Juan in Parliament, even if SDP had won all 11 seats contested, which is also most unlikely?

By asking and answering for themselves the above few simple questions, majority voters would have no hesitation to vote PAP, not just on 11 Sep 15, but also at the next round too, assuming SDP remain about the same.

Anonymous said...

Had Dr Chee Soon Juan, Professor Paul Tambyah, Tan Jee Say or even RB contested as PAP candidates, they would have won. No doubt about that.

Mystery of why Chee Soon Juan and SDP lost solved.

Anonymous said...

// Technically, the SDP team had all corners covered, a medical professional in Professor Paul Tambyah that was a head above Vivian, a woman candidate in Chong Wai Fung to match Sim Ann, a most feared opposition candidate in Chee Soon Juan and a Malay candidate in Sidek Mallek. //


Ha ha ha ......

That is a very flawed premise to start with ......

No wonder SDP lost ......

Anonymous said...

1) The conclusion that the SDP team is as good as the PAP team if not better is assumed to be a correct one.

2) Vivian has been around since 2001, the same time as Ng Eng Hen, Tharman etc. Out of the original "Magnificent 7" in GE 2001, 4 have remained as ministers. Vivian is one of them. The other one besides Ah Rooster and botak is $8 cow. In short, Vivian is an entrenched minister in HBT GRC for the past 14 years.

3) To base the outcome of an election result predominantly on the quality of the candidates ( assuming the quality is equal or slightly better ) cannot be more flawed. Many other equally crucial factors have been ( unwittingly ) ignored.

Anonymous said...

4) The assumptions and conclusion in # (1) are already flawed.

5) Sun Tze wrote: " 故经之以五事,校之以计而索其情:一曰道,二曰天,三曰地,四曰将,五曰法。道者,令民于上同意也,可以与之死,可以与之生,而不畏危。天者,阴阳、寒暑、时制也。地者,远近、险易、广狭、死生也。将者,智、信、仁、勇、严也。法者,曲制、官道、主用也。凡此五者,将莫不闻,知之者胜,不知之者不胜。故校之以计而索其情,曰:主孰有道?将孰有能?天地孰得?法令孰行?兵众孰强?士卒孰练?赏罚孰明?吾以此知胜负矣。"

6) If one use Sun Tze's abovementioned criteria adapted to modern comparable form to assess both the HBT GRC PAP vs SDP teams, would the forecast for the GE 2015 result be the same or that "mysterious"?

Anonymous said...

7) Sun Tze further wrote: " 将听吾计,用之必胜,留之;将不听吾计,用之必败,去之。
计利以听,乃为之势,以佐其外。势者,因利而制权也。
兵者,诡道也。故能而示之不能,用而示之不用,近而示之远,远而示之近。利而诱之,乱而取之,实而备之,强而避之,怒而挠之,卑而骄之,佚而劳之,亲而离之,攻其无备,出其不意。此兵家之胜,不可先传也。
夫未战而庙算胜者,得算多也;未战而庙算不胜者,得算少也。多算胜,少算不胜,而况于无算乎!吾以此观之,胜负见矣。"

8) The 100% outcome of the electoral battle is NOT decided over the 9 days starting from nomination day. That is another huge flawed assumption.

9) Aung Juan Soon Chee countered some of the Vivian's arguments in his Raffles Square rally in GE 2015. Ironically, he may not have realised that many of his counter points have been " priced " into the GE 2011 results such as the "Buy High Sell Low" investments by Gee-IC and Tharman-SICK in 2007-2008 period. Speaking to sinkieland's creme de la creme financial sector crowd about factors already priced in GE 2011 probably cuts no ice in GE 2015 .....? In say a ( political ) debate between Aung Juan Soon Chee and Vivian, why should the judges ( voters ) award the points ( marks ) twice? Many of the counter arguments have already been awarded points to the opposition in GE 2011, why should the judges ( voters ) be unfair and award further points ( marks ) for factors already priced in GE 2011 again in GE 2015? In the financial market, would fundamental factors already priced in earlier and considered already reflected in the stock prices be priced in again just because such factors are brought up again? There is no harm talking about such ( painful ) mistakes and lessons again as a reminder but would such counter points be translated into ( additional ) votes? Also, YOG was in 2010 and likewise priced into GE 2011 results. Using a judicial analogy besides the financial market pricing example, should a person be convicted TWICE for the same offence be it a small traffic fine? Voters could be fair minded that a driver has been fined $30 for not displaying a valid parking coupon in a parking lot and to give another summon for the same parking offence many years later is to be against the spirit of natural justice.

Virgo 49 said...

Like I said b4: The majority in Singapore living the lives of the minorities and the minorities living the lives of the majority.

Yet the msjority6 deaf daft dumb still not realise yet.

B4 the polls, so many concessions and goodies for them.

You think they voted the Opposition??

The PAP knew of this weakness that the majority likes to screw their own kind.

They just played rule and divide and be in power perpetually.

Cheers

Anonymous said...

The PAP knew of this weakness that the majority likes to screw their own kind.
Virgo 49 8:11 a.m.

"Know yourself, know your enemy, 100 battles, 100 victories."
The Art of War by Sun Tze, more than 2000 years ago in ancient China

"Know yourself, know your opponents and voters, 100 general (not by election) elections, 100 victories."
Anon netizen Sep 2015 Sinkieland

Anonymous said...

The PAP knew of this weakness that the majority likes to screw their own kind.
Virgo 49 8:11 a.m.

Hahahahaha. Replace majority with opposition in above and it would be just as true.

The said...

I think CSJ made two big mistakes.
First, he said at the Fullerton rally that character is permanent:

During his lunchtime speech, Chee lashed out at People’s Action Party over litigation they have been taking against the opposition for damaging their reputation. In response to this, Chee said, “reputation is temporary, but character is permanent”.

His character has been the source of attacks by the PAP and media over the past decade. This time round, it seems that he has changed, and the social media has taken a liking to the "new" CSJ. Yet he had to score an own goal by declaring "character is permanent". LHL latched onto to this during the PAP rally the next day at the same venue. Fatal mistake by CSJ.

Second, he unnecessarily attacked the WP for being ineffective. He should not have done that. The WP appears to be ineffective because the parly is dominated by PAP members and the press and TV only show the worse parts when it comes to WP. The Hansard shows otherwise.

Anonymous said...

I think CSJ made two big mistakes.
The 10:34 a.m.

Now I am beginning to realise that it is not for nothing that the late LKY once called CSJ a dud. And CSJ's failure this time, after more than 20 years in politics, is the final nail to his political "coffin".

Anonymous said...


What mystery !? You and your fellow echo chamber dwellers are still in a denial state, and refuse to admit you have been way out with all your pre-election day dreaming.

ℳatilah_$ingapura said...

Wah, so much useless ANALysis.

How about my one line plain and simple explanation?

When representing them in parliament, the smart and successful people of Holland-Bk Timah PREFER Vivian and his team to Chee SJ and his team.

Why is that so hard to accept?

Anonymous said...

What's the point, talking abt it now, who could hv won what, come next election the new citizen will be 10% or more,
the opp can't work together to save a fire, talk abt a nation.

Anonymous said...

What's the point of your comment?

Anonymous said...

Dear Redbean, there is no mystery. It's only a mystery if you believe the current massive propaganda that there's a 10% voters swing. That is a myth. If you look at the Aljunied GRC figures, there is only a 1.7% reduction of votes given to WP in GE2015 compared with GE2011. This 1.7% is easily accountable for if you consider voters have died or left the country. Attack this figure if you wish, or otherwise, you have to accept that every single person who voted for WP in 2011, have continued to vote for WP in 2015.

I have checked the figures for Aljunied only because I'm sure it has boundaries that are unchanged. So I have not checked the GE2015/2011 figures for other areas.

I'm confident that for Aljunied, the WP has not lost any votes. The swing in % is due to an addition of 8,600 new citizens. You have to understand the mechanism that for a foreigner to hope to get citizenship, they will join the PAP grassroot organisation. It is natural for PAP to pick from their grassroot organisation when they give out new citizenship. These new citizens will continue to make sure PAP wins in order that they continue to enjoy the perks of membership in the grassroot organisation. It is very important for WP to understand this, and not to believe the media hype that they have lost voters support.

Let me repeat: WP polled 72,165 in GE2011 and 67,317 in GE2015. This reduction could easily be due to voters having died or left the country. We know that many Singaporeans are jobless and have to look for jobs more desperately, we also know that many have given up on living out their lives in Singapore. WP must therefore conclude that every person who voted for them in 2011 have continued to vote for them in GE2015. Do not believe the constant droning in the media that there is a 10% swing vote - this is a mirage, at least in Aljunied.

Anonymous said...

It's the new voters. Period. Year after year, another 20,000, another 20,000, etc on and on probably since 1990.

Of course States Media & PAP & Bootlickers & New citizens & PR will not want to let true blue Singaporeans know it.

Imagine the daily voices of States Media, PAP, Bootlickers, New citizens & PRs bombarding Singaporeans disguised as the truth from Singaporeans.

True blue Singaporeans will be blur.

Only 30% realized, the other 30% of Singaporeans didn't, 10% are PAP & bootlickers and the other 30% are new citizens.

But the maths of higher citizens will continue, and true blue Singaporeans will be replaced.

PAP had sold out. Whatever they may say.

Anonymous said...

Anon 7.24pm, my point is simple, the opp made the choice all on thier own, to take on PAP, ill equipped, badly prepared, they came in with a mind set to win, its greed blinded, no cohesion, resignation within parties when one's view was not heel, linguistic skill crawling on the ground, some sounded more like cartoon characters than politicians, and for these people, we are suppose to vote them, "IN", come on la, red bean, surely you jest, to still want or not understand why they lost.

A new goverment can only be brought about with people who can run the country, gone are the times when, "we are your voice", we need competence, we need a cohesive alernative, that is able to take care not just a voice, so many a time, they are thrown with, "where does the money, comes from", so, that is a severe question that has to be answered.

If we practice each and every time a setback is met with chest thumping, and bitch yelling, there will be a time when with the new sinkies, there wouldn't be much time left to do either.

Anonymous said...

I'm confident that for Aljunied, the WP has not lost any votes.
Anon 8:25 p.m.

Please lah, for the AHPETC issue alone, and also for the WP MPs not performing well in Parliament, including even their star MP Chen Show Mao, WP would surely have lost some votes.

These voters are simply asking themselves, what is the advantage for them to continue voting for WP again? Can you tell them the advantages?

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Hi Anon 8:25, you made your points. There is a big mystery surrounding this GE with the kind of results that no one believed is true. Everyone is trying to put a finger on the factor or factors that led to this mystery. New citizens no doubt contributed a big part in the results. How big is the new citizen factor? Can we trust the official data on new citizens?

Don't forget, the 10% swing is across the board. This tells a story too.

Anon 9:56, the opposition would in general be ill prepared given their limited resources and not in control of the factors affecting the GE. Is this their fault? But not all were ill prepared. Some were very well prepared given their limitations.

And the opposition were in for greed? Please lah, between the opposition and the ruling party politicians, they are all human beans and no difference on the issue of greed and personal interests and ambition.

As for who is able to run the govt, no disrespect to arsehole doctors or breast surgeons, school debators or what not, who is better to run a govt? What qualifications are needed, attributes, characters, drive, motivation etc would make one to be able to run a govt? A sales girl is deemed good enough to run the MRT. When that failed, a soldier is deemed good enough. If this did not work, maybe a doctor will be next.

What makes the PAP so different, so better to run the country compare to the good opposition leaders? Exclude the few clowns in the midst, but not every oppo candidate is a clown.

Anonymous said...

@ RedBean. I would be careful about making claims that "almost all the Malay vote went to the PAP". This might be something you are unable to prove.

Also in the first place, to suggest at the beginning that all Malays would definitely vote for SDP because it has a Malay candidate while the PAP team does not doesn't seem right. Are you suggesting that race is the only factor?

There are clowns in the PAP, as well as in the opposition. Some opposition members definitely should be given the chance to help run the country. So what is wrong with the opposition strategy?

To me the biggest failure in their strategy is that they do not want to form the government, yet try to contest every seat. This inevitably contributed to the backlash whereby people voted overly conservatively to keep the PAP in power.

The second biggest failure is that they send their biggest clowns to contest the strongest PAP leaders. For instance, sending a team of unknowns and noise makers from SingFirst to challenge Tharman. Tharman is someone that even the opposition leaders openly say they admire. When he came out to criticize their spending plans, none of them dare to say anything against him. In fact the SDP even said "we hope Tharman will join the opposition". So what hope its there in challenging him? No surprise, he got 79%, and this kind of results have to boost PAP's overall percentage.

Anonymous said...


Hehe.....

Think Redbean has indeed put much effort in studying and examining the Sin Politics.

Most Singaporeans in general are baffled by the General Election Results. They are trying to find and even give as much reason to the one sided result. Some claimed the Oppositions are weak, disorgsnized and in fragments. However, most suspected underhabnd tactics, rigged and all sorts of imaginable frauds from invisible and disappearing inks to voters holding passports and permits at polling stations etc.

The Election does make good gossipings for laymen and a subject for academics to read and study.
Whatever it is, it's water under the bridge, grains are cooked into porridge, not reversible, so to say.

There are predictions of apocalyptic events due to the GE Result by the Sceptics who completely disbelieved it(Result) or outright rejected it as fraudulent. The Ground appears to be divided and splitted between those who accepted the Result and those that suspect it. Look at it anyway, it does not augur well for Native Singaporeans as majority does not have alternative escape route like foreigners who have homelands to return to.

Looking at Singapore in the Current Global Perspective, the Island is fast losing it's usefulness in the Region and the Eorld as a whole.

Sinkies may like to seriously look and explore for Alternatives in other lands as Singapore shall be the Tiny Enclave for only the Super Rich.

It is also a small place for those wanting or have no alternative but to stay as slaves for the Aristocrats and
Elites.

Choose your future rather than choose leaders to chart your future.


Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

The electorate is not a monolithic block that responds to a stimuli uniformly. They are divide by many factors, age, race, education, employment, sex, income, emotions etc etc and would react differently.

The results suggested that the electorate acted in one way, consistently across the board. This is unusual, highly unusual, unless there is a national crisis or a factor that strikes the voters across the board, across all differences.

Was there such a factor?

Anonymous said...

Was there such a factor?
RB 10:46 a.m.

Of course. The factor of WP not performing, be it Town Council or in Parliament, despite Aljunied voters giving Teochew Ah Hia and team a chance in GE 2011, and also in BE 2012 and 2013.

So why should they give WP another chance? And if even WP can't perform, what makes 70% think SDP, much weaker than WP, can perform? And for sure PAP will tekan Dr Chee Soon Juan and SDP even more jialat than WP, if he got into Parliament! So vote Dr Chee for what, u tell me lah? Jiak ba bo sai pang si bo? (eat full no shit, is it?)

Abao said...

The people does have a choice, if one despair at the political system, those with aspiration will eventually find ways to leave.

There is nothing more to be said.