9/05/2015

How real is the ground shift?

The opposition party rallies often attracted large crowd attendance. This favour used to be for the PAP. In the early years, the crowds were at the PAP rallies. Not anymore. Today, the attendance at PAP rallies were fetched there by chartered buses, mostly the members of RCs and CCs. It is also often cited that attendance to PAP rallies also enjoyed not only free transportation but also comes with free chicken rice and drinks. The attendance at opposition rallies were voluntary, spontaneous and from all over the island, especially to WP’s rallies.

When the crowds started to appear in opposition rallies in the early years, the ruling party had nothing much to worry as they were just that, attendance to hear what the opposition had to say but not translated to votes. It had been so for many GEs.  Then there was Potong Pasir that went to Chiam See Tong’s SDP plus  Bukit Gombak, and a couple of others. Hougang was the only SMC that went to the WP and Low Thia Khiang joined Chiam as the two lonely opposition MPs but nothing much happened for a while.

Attendance at opposition rallies continued to be well attended and there was a joke that there were there for the circus, just for fun but not real impact. Another reasoning was that the people wanted a bigger opposition presence in parliament but would only vote for good candidates. And the reluctantly voted for the PAP when the opposition could not put up good candidates worthy of their votes.

Then came 2011 and the fall of Aljunied GRC. This took everyone by surprise though it should be expected as the WP fielded a good team with Chen Show Mao as their star find supported by Sylvia Lim, Pritam Singh and Manap.  The PAP did not see it coming till the eve of the GE when George Yeo panicked. The rest was history.

The dam was broken and further confirmed by two by elections to prove that there was indeed a ground shift. Would this shift be strengthened, be a permanent feature in this GE? Some noises were still saying that Aljunied and the two by elections were exceptions, aberrations, nothing to worry. The attendance would not be converted to votes. The PAP would still win and with a comfortable margin. Chok Tong has been asking for a bigger mandate. Eng Hen was hopeful of winning more seats, even all 89 seats.

Has anything really changed? Are the crowd real, that the people are shifting away from the PAP? Signs from the last GE said so. When the opposition fielded good candidates, not necessary as clever as those from the PAP’s, they stood a good chance to win. The two near misses in Marine Parade and East Coast spoke for themselves.

Today the slate of candidates put up by the opposition are of reasonable quality, some even better than those from the PAP camp. Also, the PAP has also become a factor with their foul ups and poor performance in running the country, their arrogance and high handedness with unpopular policies that hurt the people badly. Can they still rest on past glories and think all is well?

The attendance in opposition rallies this time round is going to be even more. Would there be a change, has the ground really shifted? If the ground has really shifted, and they are waiting for the good candidates to be presented, and there are many in this GE, the votes going to the opposition cannot be underestimated and it is now a matter of how many GRCs that would fall. The rallies and the support for the opposition is real, genuine, not to watch the circus as in the past. The people are seeking and looking for good opposition candidates to vote into parliament.

The PAP camp can still jeer and make funny remarks about the rallies and the crowds. They would know the truth when the results are out, like George Yeo having to face the hard truth at the polling stations and had no choice but to accept the new realities and his defeat at the polls.


Real or bluff, just wait and see. 12 Sep will have the answers.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Rb, the crowd is real and look large but it's from the whole island so not representative of the area wp contested in. So when spread out it becomes the minority and that is why wp can not win so far.

Anonymous said...

Large crowds do not always convert to voted. RB is hoping that the large crowds at opposition rallies would result in opposition MPs. I think not. Even with 25 opposition MPs in parliament would not steer the pap from their 6.9 m or the 10 m targets. Singaporeans should brace themselves to the idea of having more importation of FTs. Whatever the outcome of this GE 2015, nothing will change. Unless the opposition can gather more than 50% of parliament seats, Singapore will have 6.9 m population by 2020.

Get use to it. Live with it!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

The opposition not only cannot win, but also lose big big, is solely because they are not ready to be govt lah, despite contesting 100% of the seats.

If they can contest 100% of the seats as one party, just like the PAP, then they will sure defeat the PAP and win. Because, no need even for them to say one, the majority voters (aka 60%) will know they are ready to be govt so they will be voted in to replace the lousy PAP govt soonest.

Anonymous said...

Whatever the outcome of this GE 2015, nothing will change.
Anon 9:37 a.m.

Tiok. And may I add, as long as the opposition is not ready to be govt. Can even forget about better outcome than GE 2011, let alone opposition winning more than 50% of the seats.

Yes, many will be yawning, much as they want to sleep, but also at the final outcome in the early hours of 12 Sep.

Anonymous said...

...like George Yeo having to face the hard truth at the polling stations and had no choice but to accept the new realities and his defeat at the polls.
RB

But George Yeo and team only lah, tio bo?

Now even if PAP cannot win Aljunied, no ministers will be lost, tio bo? U see, PAP learned their lesson, unlike the opposition, which forever not united and not ready to be govt.

Anonymous said...

Is there a PAP team now that is better than the George Yeo team?
One PM potential, one minister, one minister to be, one Parl Sec...

CK said...

Football is a simple game. Twenty-two men chase after a ball for 90 mins, and in the end the Germans always win. So it appears to be for Singapore politics - thousands attend Opposition rallies for 9 days, and in the end PAP always win.

ℳatilah_$ingapura said...

@ kena conned and still don't know, RB:

>> The PAP camp can still jeer and make funny remarks about the rallies and the crowds. <<

Of course. You have to ask yourself, how come they're not trying that hard, almost like there's a lack of "passion"? (Clue: because this whole GE is a piece of social engineering.)

>> They would know the truth when the results are out <<

Everyone will know some "truth" when results are out. Some candidates will be disappointed. Some Sheeple will also be disappointed. Others will be jubilant, and a minority (like me) won't give a fuck. (because the whole thing is smoke and mirrors in front of social engineering)

I contend that this is Lee Kuan Yew controlling Singaporean political choices---from the grave!

OK, that was metaphorical and melodramatic. Why do I say this?

I suspect, Lee Kuan Yew in all his visionary wisdom, strategic and tactical politician, put forth ideas and possibly plans on how to steer Singapore away slowly toward more pluralistic representation in parliament...i.e. slowly, slowly allow more "alternative" voices in, but they had to be "vetted" by the govt first.

Why the redrawing of electoral boundaries and increase in the number of wards? To give opposition more "chances" of getting in lah, that's why. Last time they AGGREGATED certain wards---like my own Holland V became part of Tj Pagar (WTF??)

Do I have evidence, hard proof? NO. So this is pure inductive/ deductive speculation on my part.

There are many other "rats" which I've weeded out---I do agree, they could be "motivated reasoning" or "confirmation bias" or "cognitive bias" on my part. I'm no stranger to the pitfalls of human brains playing tricks on itself, but I'm no stranger to HACKING those "bugs" to get humans to voluntarily do things to suit the hacker's objectives. Afterall, I do make my living from the ability of HACK human (consciousness) to sell product, and transfer customer's money to business owner, or to give up information or data....don't worry, all legal. Perhaps "unethical" by some peoples' standards, but LEGAL. :-) At the moment HUMAN HACKING IS LEGAL

So, yeah. I suspect that you all are being HACKED. Don't feel bad about it if you agree...people are just too easy to con, once you know how.

Got cognitive bias?



Anonymous said...

This year PAP better than WP.

http://newnation.sg/2015/09/pap-our-rally-increased-by-50-more-people-workers-party-rally-shrunk-by-5/