GE2015 – East Coast GRC

The PAP team of Lim Swee Say, Lee Yi Shyan, Maliki Osman and Jessica Tan will face Gerald Giam, Daniel Goh, Fairz Shariff and Leon Perera from the WP. East Coast was also a GEC that was closed to being topple in the last GE. The fight here is unlikely to be the drawing power of the candidates of either party. The novelty of Lim Swee Say’s style is growing jaded and the voters are no longer finding it funny or attractive anymore. Swee Say is no longer a factor or a crowd puller. The other members of his team are just so so. The WP’s team other than Gerald Giam are newbies in a way. Gerald Giam is quite a promising young man and is in no way inferior to the PAP candidates.

So what is going to count in this GRC? In a way the dramatics of the AHPETC saga could affect the voters here depending on how they see that saga unfolding and what is real and unreal about it. More important is the losing faith in the PAP and a rising star in the WP that is the promise of tomorrow. How much has the ground shifted away from the PAP in East Coast? This is a battle of the PAP brand versus the WP brand and the future each party is offering to the voters. Would the voters be seduced by the meats or by the champagne and caviar thrown at them by the WP and PAP respectively?

My feel is that this is a 50:50 case with a little up side in favour of the WP.


Anonymous said...

WP is surging. Their brand equity has reach parity with the PAP. The vote swing towards them is likely to be between 8% to 10%. With the exception of Macpherson SMC, there is a >50% chance they will win all other contests, giving WP 27 seats in Parliament.

The other parties have yet to catch fire. Their vote swing, if any, if likely to be between 3% to 5%.With the exception of Potong Pasir, there is a > 50% chance the PAP will be able to retain the other seats.

Whether the PAP can retain their 2/3 majority will come down to Holland Bukit Timah. This GRC is led by an unpopular Minister who launched numerous attacks on WP via NEA. The SDP team there is led by CSJ and includes Paul Tambayn. This GRC is the best chance for SDP to make a breakthrough. Their numbers are just slightly below the 50% and they are close enough to convert this to a win.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

My take, Chee Soon Juan is going to make the difference for the SDP after listening to him and seeing how the people connected with him and welcomed him. They really liked him. He struck a cord with them and not only would he lift up his team in Holland Bukit Timah, he would also pull votes for the Marsiling Yew Tee team and the other SMCs SDP is contesting.

The stain on him could not stick and he has returned as a better man.

Anonymous said...

"What's wrong with collecting more money?",
- Lee Kuan Yew

“In fact, if I can get another 10 billionaires to move to Singapore .... "
Lee Hsien Loong



Is there a similarity between father and son?
Is there an unhealthy obsession over money?
Do you think we will ever get our CPF back at 55 years old?


Anonymous said...

....there is a >50% chance they will win all other contests, giving WP 27 seats in Parliament."

But then majority voters in WP contested wards, much as they would like WP to win more seats, are also very scared that other wards may also think and act like them, and if that happens, PAP may be accidentally voted out of govt.

So in order to play safe and avoid that scary outcome of PAP being accidentally voted out as govt from happening, they may just maintain the status quo of Aljunied, Hougang and maybe Punggol East remain with WP, and perhaps also Potong Pasir with SPP in this GE. And knowing Sinkies for being kiasu and kiasi, I think this outcome has a 90% chance of happening.

Anonymous said...

My take, Chee Soon Juan is going to make the difference for the SDP ....They really liked him...he would also pull votes for the Marsiling Yew Tee team and the other SMCs SDP is contesting.
RB 10:40 a.m.

I thought the same had also happened to WP Teochew Ah Hia in previous elections? And their rally crowds were even bigger than SDP's. But besides Ah Hia and Hougang, how many seats did WP win in previous GEs?

Anonymous said...

Not so easy to take EC GRC from PAP.

The PAP candidates are not over-the-hill yet.

At this stage is PAP 51- 49 WP.

Yes. The parties are not on FIRE yet!

There are lots of swing voters!

As usual, the social media will plays a critical role to determine how far the oppositions will go.

Yes. This GE will be a battle of BRANDS.

The masses have enough of the AHPETC saga.

The masses are not stupid. The AHPETC saga is a local issue.
It is unlikely to be the deciding factor of swing voters.

Say hello 12 SEPT!

Will it be a NEW day?

We shall see.

Anonymous said...

Swee Say is a disaster and now turned into an unmitigated liability to the PAP. He now says that the flood of foreign workers under his watch as Labour Chief was for the good of Singaporeans. He had always talked nonsense, and now this is the mother of all nonsense.

But if any fool would take him at his word, then as new Manpower Minister, he would be doing more for the good of Singaporeans in the future, and this translates to more flood of foreign workers. Do you see how he has killed the PAP chance in his contested constituency? PAP is going to lose in East Coast GRC, and when they look back, they will see it is caused by this supreme gaff by a big clown.

Anonymous said...

Yes vote PAP for more foreigners.

Anonymous said...

I watched sdp Chee. He is an excellent speaker and can connect to the crowd. But years of portraying him as a lunatic will be tough to shake off but short film on him through the eyes of his wife certainly help. He spoke over 20 m without script, articulate well and can and will be able to contribute to parliamentary debate

Anonymous said...

Evil and wicked people will resort to character assassination.

Look out and see who are the evil ones.

Anonymous said...

I was illegible to vote so I accompanied my father to outside the polling station to do his voting during the early 60s. He told me when you are voting, looked closely at the person you going to give him/her the vote, not his party. If he is a person of integrity and principled, he will debate and vote in Parliament even against his party or abstain if the issue that affect his voters.

I remember it even to this day.

I find voters of today are not so that discerning.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

You also must know that there is a thing called the Whip. When the whip is in force, no one can vote against the party position. At best one can do is to go to the toilet when voting is in progress. Principle or not, cannot go against the party Whip.

The said...

WP's East Coast team is probably its second strongest after Aljunied. Leon Perera, Daniel Goh and Gerald Giam are solid. Lim Siah Sway and his team are as good as gone. My prediction: WP will win Aljunied, East Coast, Marine Parade, Hougang, Punggol East and Fengshan.

Anonymous said...

My prediction: WP will win Aljunied, East Coast, Marine Parade, Hougang, Punggol East and Fengshan.
The 2:01 p.m.

Provided majority voters in above WP contested wards think that SDP Chee, SFP Tan Jee Say, RP Kenneth (son of JBJ) will not win. But if they think all can win, then majority voters are also very scared that PAP may be accidentally voted out of govt, if WP can win more seats than in 2011.

Because majority voters know for sure that WP Low, SDP Chee, SFP Tan Jee Say and RP Kenneth can never be united and work together to form the govt, if they all win. I mean how to, when they do not even want to talk to each other before the election?
In fact, in response to PM Lee's comment that Singapore will sink if opposition combined win enough seats to form govt, WP Gerald Giam even publicly stated that WP do not want to form govt with other oppositions!

So like that ah, WP can never do better than in GE 2011, at best only maintain their status quo.

Anonymous said...

anonymous 2.20pm pls kindly note........

Singapore will not sink regardless who forms the govt........

tell me lah, how can Singapore sink......

we have a solid and world class civil service.......

in fact, some of our top top ministers came from the civil service......

tell me.....how to sink.......

so fear not...worry not.....

be happy.........

Anonymous said...

I think Singaporeans should invite this guy to do a documentary on Lee Kuan Yew.

Alex Gibney explains why his Steve Jobs documentary may cause you to put down your iPhone for good

In the film he shows Jobs as a marketing genius who revolutionized the personal computer and then made us addicted to mobile devices.
But behind the scenes Gibney paints him as a maniacal task master who ruled by intimidation and mind games.
In one instance, while giving the exit interview to one top employee leaving Apple, Jobs gave him a “Godfather”-like speech promising him he’d be hunted down if he took any other Apple employees (or in Jobs’ words, “his family”) with him.

And Jobs wasn’t any better in his personal life.
The film highlights that in the early days of Apple Jobs repeatedly denied being the father of his daughter Lisa.
Then, when a DNA test proved he was the father, he only paid $500-a-month in child support.

“I didn’t want to do the official bio pic of Steve Jobs,” said Gibney.
“In fact, just the opposite. I never really made a film like this before where you sort of go in and wonder.”


Anonymous said...

We need a 2/3 pro Singaporean core in parliament.

Anonymous said...

Forget about the fear mongering by the PAP. This has been an old trick coupled with veiled threats, boundaries redrawing, and lots of pork thrown out of the barrel to entice the 60% to continue with their support.

There are 89 constituencies in all and seriously how many can the opposition win? For an effective opposition the guess is at least one third or 30 opposition MPs. For the opposition to win six or seven GRCs is a tall order for this GE. To strengthen the opposition voice in Parliament further down the road, it still depends on how they perform in this GE.

In fact, the bigger fear should be what is going to happen if the WP suffers a setback compared to 2011? Then we may end up with no voice, no recourse and sodomised for the rest of our lives. It that what we want?

b said...

but many people have been let down by pap policies especially those born and breed locally the last few years. pap will be able to keep some but will also have to lose some. that will bring more democracy into this island.

Anonymous said...

Yes, I understand there is the party whip. Can a party whip withstand
the loss of vote in the next GE. Worst of all is the MP you voted in, dare
not even debate or raise on the issue.

The party whip controls only when there is voting. Then there is where the voters punished the MP and then the Party. As you said a smart MP will debate and absent himself during the voting.

Is our voters discerning enough?

Anonymous said...

I agree with 2:41 p.m. above.

Think about this - even if WP wins, they will need to look for a coalition to form a govt. Who's to say that they need to combine with another opposition party? If the PAP wins the second highest number of seats, then it would make sense that these two would form the coalition. So there's no fear there. Only the Internet Brigade continues to drum up this old song, and Netizens should speak up whenever this stupid idea appears.

The bigger fear should be what is going to happen if the WP suffers a setback compared to 2011. Absolutely right! I'm not ashamed to copy this sentence. If WP suffers a setback, then you can be very sure PAP arrogance would grow in leaps and bounds, and you get your 10 million population before next election.

The said...

/// So like that ah, WP can never do better than in GE 2011, at best only maintain their status quo. ///

Want to bet? RP has no chance. Even if CSJ and TJS wins some, total oppo win sill still be less than half the slate.

/// scared that PAP may be accidentally voted out ///

Says who? And why "accidentally" - no accident at all. If PAP wins, normal. If opposition wins, its a freak result? You are the freak.

Did you know that more than 50 years ago, the PAP was in the opposition. So, the last 50 years' progress in Singapore was a direct result of a freak election result.

Anonymous said...

Singapore may do better without the PAP. It's all up to the leaders & people.
Why so fearful?

In any case currently the odds of PAP not forming the next government after 11Sept is almost NIL. Not NIL but almost NIL. Betting is my business.

Anonymous said...

If PAP wins big, status quo or even more seats, which is a fair chance.
The outcome will be 6.9mln to 10mln very quickly.
Singaporean PMETs will HOLLOW out real fast.

This should be the issue that middle income Singaporeans be most concerned about. The election outcome that they should try to avoid at all costs.

Low costs huge supply of foreign PMETs will destroy even competitive Singaporean PMETs. Because of costs of living arbitrage & realities between Singapore and their home countries. This is basic global demand & supply curves of labor economics at play when you have an OPENED LEGS PAP policy to FTs.

PMETs who vote PAP deserve what is coming to them, a human Tsunami.

Anonymous said...

It is nil.

It is what, we, in opposition wards want. It is the best solution and is starting to work well. It will work better with more opposition MPs voted into Parliament in GE2015. It will work best with 49% repreentation.

Anonymous said...

The PAP is trying to rebut the sentiments on the ground that it was after GE2011 and the loss of Aljunied GRC that forced them to rethink their policies.

They are claiming that the policy changes were decided well before GE2011 and not because of the loss of Aljunied GRC. Why were the decisive changes not trotted out during GE2011 if they were decided before GE2011? That could perhaps have changed the situation in Aljunied GRC. When they throw pork from barrels they always announced loud and clear what they will do during GE2011 in order to buy votes. Why were these purported policy changes decided upon before GE2011 not used to buy votes during that election?

The fact that these policy changes coming 'after GE2011' can only be attributed to one factor and that is the loss of more seats to the WP. Other than that, it is not the style of the PAP to change and they would continue to act unilaterally and shaft unpopular policies right into Singaporean's throat.

Do not be fooled.

Anonymous said...

Should induct Lim's Sweet Say into Genius World Record as the world's most expensive jester and clown ? Also the PAP the world most expensive circus party. Also the most creative in taking money off the public monies for themselves.

PAP can even publicly remove evidence from library to prevent others from finding out the town council accounts


Just imagine things that they done privately without public knowledge. We be foolish to think that PAP is for us, where it is for toilet ( sorry, let's not insult the toilet, even toilet deserve respect than pappies)

Anonymous said...

Quoting Anon 3.15pm:

If WP suffers a setback, then you can be very sure PAP arrogance would grow in leaps and bounds, and you get your 10 million population before next election.

That's not all!

Your GST will increase to 10%.
Your food cost will escalate.
Your CPF minimum sum will rise.
Your CPF medisave minimum sum will rise.
Your medishield life premium will rise.
Your trains will still breakdown.

What the he@#! Everyday is a 911! Freak accident can do no worse!

Anonymous said...

Chan Chun Sing: The poor don’t need money, they need Care and Concern


Maybe PAP Ministers also don't need money or million dollar salaries.
- they just need our care and concern

Anonymous said...

"Maybe PAP Ministers also don't need money or million dollar salaries.
- they just need our care and concern

We are concerned that PAPpies are stressed with them knowing that they may be voted out and their skeletons and their corruption are exposed publicly. We the citizens should be caring enough to release their torment by voting them out.

Anonymous said...

I just can't help wondering why Lee Kuan Yew could call Singaporeans daft and got away with it.

Perhaps many of the 60.1% are salivating at the vision of 6.9million by 2020 and 10million by 2030? And lubricant sellers cannot make a killing here because the citizens cannot have enough of the pain?