7/31/2012

GIC and Temasek’s annualised returns revised?



In the media today, GIC has confirmed that its 20 year annualized rate of return was only 3.9% and Temasek’s was 15%. Who is spreading the misinformation that their returns were 17% annualized? How did people got such a fantastic figure that no fund managers would dare to claim? 17% annualized! Unbelieveable, incredible, insanity!

Oh, I remember that Professor Balding was using this number to compute the missing $160b in the national reserves of the island. At 17%, where have the $160b gone, he asked? There is a big dark hole somewhere that is concealing this fat chunk of money.

Now the mystery is solved. With the declared official numbers of GIC at a meagre 3.9%, less than the payout for CPF’s Retirement Account, GIC may be incurring a loss if the money is borrowed from CPF. And CPF’s annualized returns over 20 years must be much more as the earlier returns were much higher. I think if any funds were to park their money with me, I could guarantee 4% return over 20 years too. And I am not a super talent and need no super talented salaries.

Temasek’s 15% is still a stunting number for 20 years. So the mysterious $160 b could be lowered to perhaps $60b to $80b unaccounted. This is just a wild guesstimate if there was really a $160b missing in the books.

Prof Balding will now have to justify how he got the 17% number and what would now be the new missing cash hoard. It would definitely be less than the $160b that he came out with after scouring over the two funds past financial statements.

What else is new?

96 comments:

newhik said...

I don't know but to me, it seems that the Accounting dept was caught red handed and now spent the last few weeks to come up with a more credible figure to answer to Balding's damaging words.

From a layman's point of view, some heads should be rolling as a mis representation of the annualised figure sounds like a deliberate attempt to deceive the citizens of which the GIC is supposedly answer to.

Peter Mak said...

Hi Redbean,

Just for clarity, Balding's remarks were that Temasek's returns were 17% since inception and GIC's returns were 7% since inception.

These were supposedly calculated (I add "supposedly", as I neither analysed nor verified the details from both sides) from the figures of Temasek and GIC themselves.

He also added that "Note: Because Temasek does not break out its returns year by year, I assumed that it earned 17% every year. While this will change the year to year valuations, it does not impact the final valuation."

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Thanks for the clarification Peter.

So the numbers differ by 2% points each. If that is the case, the missing $160b would water down very slightly to perhaps $130b. This is still a big sum to be missing.

Anonymous said...

Dr Balding didn't lie. Everything he worked on is based on the declared numbers to IMF or their annual reports.
Looks like they know they are being scrutinized and decided to declare the 'mistake'. I say we need to dig deeper...this could turn out to be 100 x times bigger than bromptongate.

Anonymous said...

temasek publsihed annualized returns are BULLSHIT. Fo example they handed Singtel over at a very LOW BOOK VALUE and after IPO, Walah, you can this HUGE INCREASE IN RETURN of a few hundred percent!!!! Repeat that for SIA, SMRT, KEPPEL, CAPITALAND etc

Anonymous said...

You mean not I should be more discerning about what I am told?

"Do you believe everything you read in the Straits Times?"

Anonymous said...

The GIC returns are REAL Returns -- question is what inflation rate are they using :0

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

They can publish whatever they want. People like Balding will dig to put the pieces together. If fit ok, if not, then more questions will be raised.

3.9% annualised is not a good number for sure. Some may say very bad.

Anonymous said...

"Show me the money!"

Movie - JERRY MAGUIRE (Starring Tom Cruise)

Source:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OaiSHcHM0PA

The Americans are not stupid people.
Learn from them.
This is the most simple and direct way to resolve the problem.

SHOW ME THE MONEY!

Anonymous said...

Balding is a half-baked cookie monster leading a legion of ever willing followers. I told you before Balding's figues are wrong and have taken out of context. People believe what they want to believe. 3.9% annualised real return is bad? On what basis? By comparing with other funds of comaparble size?

Matilah_Singapura said...

Independent audits? (plural)

That should settle the matter.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

3.9% annualised for 20 years is bad as most funds would have done better. Just park the money in properties here you can imagine how many times would that be.

Anonymous said...

GIC and Tamasek are so closely guarded, there is no way they allow an external audit firm to open their books. As long as this is the case, they will continue to tell us how much they make and we will continue to speculate how much they actually lost. This will continue until the cow comes home, if they actually do.

Anonymous said...

Best is CPF. They just print you a statement to make you happy. They can add a few zeros behind even.

Then they said cannot touch except when they decide how much they want to take or how much insurance they want to buy for you.

Your money my money.

Anonymous said...

DO you know the difference between real rates of return and nominal returns in the first place before you make a judegement ? And the inflation rate used ? Without objective data you are shooting in the dark.

Park in properties? Are you kidding? Haha. And proerties went up, you gonna complain right ? Haha. And properties tank, you gonna complain also right? I wonder why Balding (or is he a chinese using a ang mo name to gain credibility) waste so much time on such useless activity.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

I am in finance and investment. What is your background?

Anonymous said...

Finance & investment? Good for you. Then you must doing pretty darn well with Singapore as a financial centre, if you had tack on the right wind. I have not had much of a formal education due to the war. Much of it is home schooled and OJT from my children and grandchildren. And I do try to read widely and take everything with a pinch of salt.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Due to the war? You American? I believe the Americans took good care of their veterans and provided them with tertiary education after the war in Vietnam. I am guessing, you can't be a Vietnam veteran.

Investment is not that simple as many layman think. Otherwise GIC would not be claiming to be doing well with 3.9% with the best team money can buy.

Anonymous said...

Redbeans,


May i ask that all along they have handsomely rewarded themselves base on 17% return ? Isn't this the largest scam/fraud on part of Singapore govt ? Isn't this is worst than Enron, worldcom, ponzi scheme, Marcus's greed, Suharto's greed ? I know of no other loss like this in other world and history.

oh, i forget this SinCity where ruling party always get away with it. Stupid me.

In other words, we have accounting fraud in singapore govt's TH,GIC just as Prof Chris Balding has claimed repeatedly, am I right ?

What do you think ?

Anonymous said...

Redbean,
please create a post for this

"Interview with Dr Christopher Balding on Singapore’s SWFs"

http://newasiarepublic.com/?p=39938

Anonymous said...

Do I neeed to be an American to have gone through a war ? Gosh! Even if I am an American, and my tertiary is paid for as you claimed, it is still mired in high unemployment, high debt and anaemic growth. Not forgetting their govt is a evil empire, in your opinion.

Investment is not as simple as many laymen think, I agree. So 3.9%real returns for 20 years is a decent rate, but it is still useful to compare that with other funds of comparable size, then at least its comparing apples with apples.

Anonymous said...

"Investment is not as simple as many laymen think, I agree. So 3.9%real returns for 20 years is a decent rate,"

Hello,
can I take your money, invest in it, and lied to you that it is gaining 17% return, and therefore you must reward me $1 millions as a result, but only 20 years later, you find out that you are been lied to, and you actually incur a loss due to my poor performance. I hoodwink you to cover up the loss and reward myself still, and how will you feel about it ?

Can you be pacified if I tell you that still, the actual return is still as good as rest of the world ? How about those lies that i tell you that give me money, position, poltics, influence , benefits ... all along ?

please, at least has some brains to go along with analysis.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

I was a bit confused thinking that the postings were by one anon. Now I know that there are more than one.

To anon war veteran, you must be talking about WW2 then. Apologies. Anyway, for the big funds to make 3.9 over 20 years when the early years were pretty good is simply bad.

Over 20 years many funds would have double or triple their money especially coming from a very low base then.

As for Balding's post, the link is already there and anyone interested can always read it from there.

One thing for sure, anything that one does not have a full picture is suspicious. Anything that people do not want you to know is trouble.

Anonymous said...

3.9%.
Hmmm! Sounds like cluck, cluck to me.
Chickens coming home to roost?

SMRT has great financial numbers for a number of years.
As long as you don't factor in adequate replacement cost and maintenance cost?

17%.
As long as you don't include investment losses accumulated along the way?

Anonymous said...

Haha, I know you can't resist condescending. But that is typical.

If you are so convinced that the govt has lied, then it is a BIG lie, and the whole thing will crumble. And to be so convinced you must have privy to information that the public do not. I would want to know too. You should bring up the matter to CPIB, or some lawyers or even LTK. Othwerise, it is just wasting bandwidth.

Anonymous said...

"17%.
As long as you don't include investment losses accumulated along the way? "

17% or 1700%
as long as Sinners are draft and stupid.

Anonymous said...

Eh, or you can keep it until the next election in 2016 and drop the bombshell on stage lah.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

There will not be any bomb shell on this. Who is to know what is the real number? GIC and Temasek would come up with their official numbers and take it or not, what to do?

Balding or anyone can come up with all kinds of numbers and nothing will happen.

Anonymous said...

Ya, so why bother ??

Anonymous said...

Red bean, I thought the 17% return was broadcast by temasek? It's not from baldings

Anonymous said...

"Ya, so why bother ??"

Singapore is either your country or it is not.
You are either a citizen of equal worth as a human with the elites or you are not.

Remember who we sent into retirement in GE 2011.
Remember, and walk tall.

Walk tall so that your children will never have to crawl again.
Walk tall so that your parents need not scavenge for things to sell in the rubbish bin.

George Yeo, 20 Feb 1994, said:
“Remember your place in society before you engage in political debate…
Debate cannot (de)generate into a free-for-all, where no distinction is made between the senior and junior party…

You must make distinctions -
What is high, what is low, what is above, what is below,

and then within this, we can have a debate, we can have a discussion…
people should not take on those in authority as ‘equals”

Anonymous said...

Knn where is he now?

Anonymous said...

Redbean,
i always why Singapore daily is fixed, now we finally have the answer.

Anonymous said...

Hey Anonymous (July 31, 2012 12:37 PM),

You a fcuking retard or have you been hiding in your mother's cunt all this while? You haven't heard of Warren Buffett???

* * * * *

Anonymous (July 31, 2012 12:37 PM), said...

/// Balding is a half-baked cookie monster leading a legion of ever willing followers. I told you before Balding's figues are wrong and have taken out of context. People believe what they want to believe. 3.9% annualised real return is bad? On what basis? By comparing with other funds of comaparble size? ///

Anonymous said...

GIC's 5 years annualised return in USD term is 3.4%. If in SGD tern will be definitely lower, probably lower than the 2.5% interest paid on the CPF ordinary account.

This means that they are actually losing money. So it would be interesting to find out what bonuses these people are paying themselves the last 5 years.

The constant adjustment of the CPF minimum sum and medisave and well as adjustment of the draw down age etc just makes the conspiracy theory of our reserves more credible. Prof Balding claims that our emperor has no clothes.

Question is whether Singaporeans still think that the emperor is wearing a very expensive transparent clothes.

Anonymous said...

It is absurd, but it is happening. That party man who lost 42 billion dollars of tax payers' money in failed investment in fraudent American financial products can unashamely walked over to take up the presidency of the country. May be all the accounting books in GLCs are manipulated and cooked to look good so as to reward company directors and government ministers with high obscene salaries and bonuses. All big American financial institutions like the banks and insurance and the stock markets, all big business corporations like real estate, investment houses and loans and finance companies and all American government departments including CIA and The Pentagon are run and directed by extraordinary super crooks, rogues and scoundrels who heralded from the best and most renowned universities like Harvard, Princeton and Yale. But what happened. These American super crooks, rogues and scoundrels only know how to enrich themselves at the expense of the companies, people and country and they not only brought economic debacle and bankruptcies to their companies and country but also destabilise the world's economy and finance. Is Singapore following the American model? If it is , there is cause for alarm and the people must know what to do in 2016.

Eagles Eye

Anonymous said...

It is absurd, but it is happening. That party man who lost 42 billion dollars of tax payers' money in failed investment in fraudent American financial products can unashamely walked over to take up the presidency of the country. May be all the accounting books in GLCs are manipulated and cooked to look good so as to reward company directors and government ministers with high obscene salaries and bonuses. All big American financial institutions like the banks and insurance and the stock markets, all big business corporations like real estate, investment houses and loans and finance companies and all American government departments including CIA and The Pentagon are run and directed by extraordinary super crooks, rogues and scoundrels who heralded from the best and most renowned universities like Harvard, Princeton and Yale. But what happened. These American super crooks, rogues and scoundrels only know how to enrich themselves at the expense of the companies, people and country and they not only brought economic debacle and bankruptcies to their companies and country but also destabilise the world's economy and finance. Is Singapore following the American model? If it is , there is cause for alarm and the people must know what to do in 2016.

Eagles Eye

Thomas Pain said...

Where did Balding get his numbers from? Why, from the horse's mouth of course. As of today, http://www.temasek.com.sg/abouttemasek/corporateprofile still says "Total shareholder return for Temasek since its inception in 1974 has been a healthy 17% compounded annually". Seems the website editor isn't as on the ball as they would like.

That disappearing 2 percent compounded over 38 years is a lot of missing returns. Like 112%. Your CPF dollars at work!

We need democracy, not opacity-mediocracy.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Hi Thomas, welcome to the blog.

I am always very pleased for bloggers to clarify points that I made. This kind of involvement by bloggers will make a blog more interesting and credible.

Thanks. And I have read almost all the articles by Prof Balding and I find him very credible.

Sarah Palin said...

Many of the citizens in the west would exchange their system for Singapore's system that works. Unfortunately you can't turn back the clock, and you know, once benefits are dished out by the state, like paid benefits, you can't take it back. Good for citizens, but bad for government, and bad for future generations. They cant move forward either and stuck in a gridlock, so that is the vaunted democracy at work. You lazy asses here complaining and whining, slugging dirt on the govt by copy paste from social media, should be ashamed of yourselves.

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

Hi Sarah palin, welcome to the blog. Glad that you can find time from politics to visit us and share your thoughts: )

The American system is our role model. We copied many things from the Americans including the extremely high pays for employees.
The difference is that the Americans pay their private sectors crazily well but not the govt. So the private sector is not corrupt in the legal sense as whatever they paid are approved by the boards. On the other hand the American govt is so corrupt because they needed to be paid somehow.

We did the reverse. Out govt and public sectors are so well paid that they needed not be corrupt. The corruption is in the private sector.

And one thing you must use your head to think and not believe what was reported in the media. The Sinkies are not lazy asses as reported and you believed. The Sinkies are the most hardworking and thrifty people in the world except for the super rich.

The Sinkies worked very long hours, from the time they were in schools to score straight As all the way. Somehow some jokers forgot and told the Sinkies and the world that they are daft. And strangely the Sinkies believed, the half baked talents from Third World countries who came here also believed and you also believed.

This is psychological warfare. Putting down the Sinkies and made them fell bad, like the Americans did in the past, confining Chinamen to work only as laundryman and cooks. And after sometime the Chinamen believed, the Americans believed, and the world believed, the Chinaman is only good and talented as cooks and laundry man.

In schools they said do not called a child stupid as that would destroy his self worth and confidence and he would think he is stupid.

Cheers.

Anonymous said...

In the ST, GIC bragging about how well it has done with the 3.9%. Temasek should put up a front page advertisement on its 15% returns and demand GIC to hand over their funds for it to manage.

My god, 3.9% versus 15%! I will put all my money in Temasek! Why put money in GIC with only 3.9%

Anonymous said...

Now Iknow , why CPF can never be returned to the sinkies.

If you dun see it , good for you .

Carry on Ah Q

Anonymous said...

Four Signs Your Awesome Investment May Actually Be A Ponzi Scheme

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2012/07/30/157606305/four-signs-your-awesome-investment-may-actually-be-a-ponzi-scheme

Chua Chin Leng aka redbean said...

One easily recognisable sign of a Ponzi Scheme is how well they pay their top management. When top management are paid atrociously generous salaries, it is likely to be a Ponzi Scheme unless the income can match the payouts.

Look at all the big investment banks and how crazily they paid their top management. Where is the money coming from? It must be through fraud, cheating or gambling.

Anonymous said...

@ July 31, 2012 7:21 PM
I knew your mother had commited incest to have a retarded Permanent head damage son like you who is also a trans.

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Dies wird ebenfalls mit abzueglich Stimmungsschaukeln gleichwohl hoeherer Konzentration gemeinsam. Bessere Blutdruck und ausserdem Cholesterin. Kohlehydratarme Diaeten verklappen normalerweise gesaettigtes Fette und verfeinerte eventuell verarbeitete Nahrung sowie Verbesserung darin, zeitvertreib "ganze Nahrungsgruppen" benannt wird, (fettarmer Milchgeschaeft, Eiweissstoff, Faser) welches beistehen, Blutdruck und Cholesterin zu kontrollieren. Diese bedeutsame Reduktion suesslicher Nahrung-welches enthalten sehr viel Kalorien, nie Naehrinhalt auch Hilfen kontrollieren Fettleibigkeit, diese das grosser Faktor rein Herzinfarkten ist, normalerweise. Hoffentlich ist eine gute gezeigte Schalter bisher anwendbar gewesen. Es koennte sein, dass Auch sie ebenso Folgendes beruecksichtigen wuenschen: Die Nahrung wird kohlehydratarm?kohlehydratarme Diaeten klingen unbeschadet, ausser vorbereitet nach werden

Eine perfekte Befuerworter diese kohlehydratarme Diaeten besagen, dass er wirkt, ganz einfach aufgrund dass Kohlehydrate diese Einsen werden, diese Fettleibigkeit ausloesen sowie markig Hunger stimulieren; Der carb cycleWhen wir essen Kohlehydrate, selten einfache Kohlehydrate moegen Zucker Kartoffeln, Pasta, weisse Reis gleichwohl irgendetwas machten aus verfeinertem Mehl wir stimulieren die Sekretion des Insulins. Insulin bewirkt, dass Glucose rasch in jene Stoff diese Kraftstoffverbrauch integriert wird. D-Glukose wirkt dieses Produkt dieser Kohlehydratverdauung. Viele Krabben werden keinesfalls spontane fuer Treibstoff vom Koerper nicht (mehr) frisch, so dass diese "zusaetzliche" Glucose bleibt. Die Glukose wirkt zusaetzliche Kalorien gleichwohl wird schnell in Fett umgewandelt. Falls eine perfekte Glucoseebenen beeinflussen, (sich) auswirken (auf) die Insulinebenen rasch inside Drehung.

Die promotion anderer Antezedenz, aufzuhoeren, zu fragen, ob nun kohlehydratarme Diaeten sicher werden, wird die Tatsache, dass Folgende Art Dieser Diaet den Hautmangel in Laut machen kann. Diese tatsache veranlasst Sie selbst, Ihren gesunden und ausserdem vibrierenden Blick nach verlieren, sogar sowie Auch sie Fett verlieren. Einige Arten des Kohlehydrats fette Essen was Teigwaren, verfeinerte Weissbrot gleichwohl Reis werden keinesfalls ohne weitere komplikationen zu haenden Gesundheit. Sie selbst koennen gar nicht in aussichtslosem Bedeutung zur seite stehen. Jedoch, Kohlehydrat fette Nahrung nachdem Vollkoerner, Fruechte, Gruenzeug (umgangssprachlich), Huelsenfruechte gleichwohl brauner Reis wird diese Gesundheit wesentlich. Die police kann Stoffwechsel potenzieren gleichwohl Ihrem Koerper bereitstellen, zusaetzliche Kalorien zu verbrennen. Er ist wert, eine Diaet zu abstimmen, diese der Genuege bezueglich guten Kohlehydraten enthaelt, statt Die police problemlos nach vermeiden.

Der Krieg zwischen kohlehydratarmen sowie fettarmen Diaeten wird lange und ausserdem andauernd gewesen. Jedoch, die promotion kuerzliche Studien bezeugen an, dass es sein kann, dass diese kohlehydratarme Diaet besser und ebenfalls gesuender aufwaerts lange Sicht erscheint; Forscher haben diese Weile gecheckt, tatsaechlicher Gewichtsverlust zwischen den zwei Diaeten gegenseitig nicht wirklich bedeutend hinaus lange Sicht unterscheiden kann die kohlehydratarme Diaet erscheint gesuender. Hinein Ein Anfangssechs Monatszeit liegen kohlehydratarme Dieters eine durchwachsen gezeigter groesserer Gewichtsverlust. Jedoch nach fuer einen Anno oder eher des Haltens Ein Diaet gleicht einander Typ Gewichtsverlust zwischen fettarmen und ausserdem kohlehydratarmen Dieters aus. However, their researchers found that the low carb diets are better for:. Increasing HDL, or "good" cholesterol. Dieser zirkus Senken des diastolischen Blutdrucks.
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