Hougang’s political demography

In the last election, WP won 65% of popular votes in Hougang leaving PAP’s Desmond Choo with only 35%. This may look innocuous enough but on careful scrutinizing, it is actually a very tight situation for the PAP.

The general distribution of voters between the PAP and opposition is normally a 30% hard core supporters for each side and leaving the balance 40% as the fence sitters or swing votes. Applying this general pattern, PAP was only able to win 5% of the 40% swing votes. In this scenario the optimists in PAP camp would think there is room for improvement, to move the 5% a few notches up.

On the other hand, the WP can at most win the 5% from PAP and stripping PAP to the skin of its teeth. This will be the worst case scenario this weekend for the PAP. Anything less is unthinkable and will send a signal that it is all over for the PAP.

Another probable distribution in the case of Hougang, which is an unusual constituency, is that WP has a hardcore support of 45% against a PAP’s 35%, leaving a balance of 20% swing votes. If this is the case, in the last election PAP was only able to hold on to its hard core supporters and WP had a clean sweep of the swing voters. All the lose votes went to WP. This means that PAP was not making any headway with the fence sitters at all.

And the outcome of this by election could see PAP at 35% again or winning some of the swing votes from the WP. It would need to win 15% of the 20% fence sitters to have a chance of winning Hougang. Hougang is likely to be retained as WP needs only 6% from the swing voters to retain the seat. For WP to take anything less than 5% from the swing voters is likely to be remote.

My assessment is that WP should retain the seat of Hougang but will find it very difficult to better the result of the GE as that would mean eating into the hard core supporters of the PAP camp. Desmond is likely to keep his 35% with a +/- 3% either way.


Anonymous said...

How do you swing fencesitters, if you continue to isolate and punish them, election after election and claiming they are always there for them?

How do you even try to ensure PAP supporters vote for you, if they too are punished after each and every election, when your bad deeds are there for all to see and yet they claim they have done so much for Hougang?

Fencesitters, PAP supporters and WP supporters in Hougang are not daft or blind.

A fresh start? The PAP must be seen to make a fresh start first before asking Hougang voters to vote for them. Without that, another 20 years and it will still be under WP.

Anonymous said...

Start by depoliticising the People's Association and give all MPs the due recognition as elected representatives of the people and be appointed as the adviser of PA and related activities. Party organisation can remain with parties.

Start depoliticising the civil service to serve the people regardless of political association, eg housing, town council etc etc

Start allocating resources to all constituencies regardless of political affiliation of the MPs as equal national bodies.

Anonymous said...

Have you all ask Hougangers what they want, what they like to have in their constituency ?

Stop assuming that they want to have that aircon mall around the corner, spanking new food courts, aircon bus terminal, HDB upgrading (in which they need to co-pay), crowded roads, crowded estate etc..They want Hg to be peaceful, quiet like now, they want familiarity.

So start respecting Hg by respecting their vote. You get what you wish for.

Gintai_昇泰 said...

Let's hope your forecast will come true tonite. The way you put it is quite logical. I foresee a drop in WP votes. It's going to be exciting to watch. In fact the whole Singapore and the world will be watching this phenomenon - another chapter in our political history.

The said...

/// Anonymous said...
How do you swing fencesitters, if you continue to isolate and punish them, election after election and claiming they are always there for them? ///

Try, putting barbed wire on top of the fence.....

Anonymous said...

This by-election will set the tone for GE 2016. The outcome is more telling than apparent. Singaporeans are watching and deciding whether the talk about changes have been enough.

Sure, one more MP will not make a difference in Parliament. But, think about it. If Aljunied GRC had not fallen, would minister's salaries have fallen? Would foreign workers policy have been relooked and refined, even marginally? Would HDB building have been accelerated?

I think I need to chill my champagne now. Bye.

Anonymous said...