11/29/2010

Time to sell your properties

'Soaring property valuations have sent the net wealth of households in Singapore rocketing to an all-time high of S$1.16 trillion (US$886 billion) in the third quarter of this year. That is 29 percent up from the height of the financial crisis early last year, and higher than the S$1 trillion that households registered a year ago, itself a record.' This is a piece of good news that is in the media. The bad news is COV is coming down and prices of resale flats are also sliding down. And the full impact of the control measures have not taken effect yet. This is the time to sell high and buy when property prices come tumbling down. When property prices peaked, it is time for it to wind down. The cycle always repeat itself. Looks like a $1m 3rm HDB flat is not going to be. With the projected price hike of 2 to 3% annually, it will take donkey years to reach this number. My dream of being an emperor in Lijiang is fading away. For those who are not selling, they can keep smiling while the price is still high.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

Sell high and buy when property prices come tumbling down? In the meantime, stay at the void deck? Or camp at the beach?

This can only work if you have multiple properties and as I said before, the system benefits only the rich.

The poor can only dream about selling high and buying low.

Matilah_Singapura said...

Rubbish. This distortion in values/ prices is mainly caused by money/ credit bubbles.

However there is nothing wrong by "feeling richer' than you really are. Most people love the feeling :-)

You have double-whammy for property demand in S'pore:

1. Excess liquidity i.e. low (1.7%) interest rate for property purchases coupled with property-ownership/ speculation as a cultural fixture. Meaning, Singaporeans love to play property and many have made fortunes doing so.

2. Healthy demand from overseas buyers who have been turned off by HK and China markets, now buying in S'pore.

High asset values look good on paper only. In the real world, what is your 'cash flow' and how much do you 'utang' people or the bank? Got money to spend or not?

Anyway, I hope Singaporeans become more smug, arrogant and spend money like water. No doubt they will. S'poreans are great at being assholes -- no further training required ;-)

Matilah_Singapura said...

Conspiracy Theories -- Anyhow hantam without any proof

I'm not one for conspiracy theories. However the game of politics rests on the ability of political powers to manipulate the consciousness of the citizens so that in the citizens' minds, the nefarious political player becomes "indefensible" -- even if he/ she is hated. The crafty political player must master the use of FEAR and EUPHORIA (or GREED) like hunter uses bait or lures to trap his prey.

Remember, when formulating a conspiracy theory, there is an objective to be achieved, and this is done through deception. Conspiracy theories are strategic and/ or tactical.

Here is my theory: What if the PAP is allowing the market to over-heat on purpose?

The they have two options:

1. Allow it to crash 'naturally'

2. Tighten the money supply to 'avert' economic collapse.

#1: People in a panic, backside koyak -- bleeding profusely. Net worth down the toilet.
PSP (Political Selling Point) -- "Better vote for us. We are the best economic managers. We can keep the society stable"" Play the FEAR, play it man. Those people are already seriously emotional, play them some more!

#2: Prices come down, some people lose their jobs, property prices (and possibly other prices also) deflate. Now some people can afford to buy.
PSP -- play the 'rational economic manager' card. "Better vote for us. We are the best economic managers. We have the will to act against the trend to ensure long-term security for all Singaporeans. We have taught the evil speculators a good lesson and many of them are wiped out. Vote for us, we look after you"

Conspiracy theory bonus show:

* How many of those in politics and government are themselves active in the property game?

* How many are 'connected' to MAS and therefore have privileged information?

* How many are using trusts to play the property game and are thus themselves 'protected' from bankruptcy?

* How many have 'superior' relationships at the (GLC?) bank(s) which afford them more 'favours' than the average struggling sucker?

Anonymous said...

Worry not about HDB Prices heading South. Read Conrad Raj telling developers to market properties overseas. He was sort of saying that local developers should look for foreign buyers.

If the Journalist is taken seriously and why not? How many locals can afford to buy the upmarket properties? Foreigner buyings will keep the prices soaring which of course was the case for the last many years. The momentum shall remain ticking.

patriot

Matilah_Singapura said...

Are you sure locals cannot "afford" to buy?

The biggest players in the market are still locals.

Dun pray pray. Singapore has some seriously wealthy individuals.

Mr Raj's job is to provide content for his boss -- Media's Corpse. S'pore properties re already being advertised internationally lah. The propensity to realise profit is faster than the journalist brain.

Anonymous said...

Me don't know lah as me don't care about anything except waiting to sell if my humble 139 square metre HDB Unit of a quarter century old can be sold for a million Sin Dollars.

However, Conrad Raj was saying that Sin Developers were not as agressive as oversea developers. Me just happened to read that news from some discarded newspapers and post it here.

Personally, even if my unit fetches me one million Sin$, me is still of the opinion that i am unlikely to afford a good property in Sin. More practical to buy a small freehold landed property elsewhere, me thinks.

Liked me had posted in earlier thread, foreigners bought us, we buy at other places wherever there's better deals.

patriot
patriot

Matilah_Singapura said...

patriot:

> Conrad Raj was saying that Sin Developers were not as agressive as oversea developers. <

Of course he did. He was doing his job -- creating content, in this case talking cock. He may write for the Biz Times, but a businessman he is not.

Nearly every development of late: sell very fast. Word travels, people buy. Mostly locals/ PR's (i.e. "local" market)

Overseas developers tend to be more "aggressive" because their stuff moves s-l-o-w-e-r. Their markets are not as "hot" as Singapore at the peak.

"Free" advertising from Bloomberg

The world already knows S'pore market is "panas". People with the dough are always looking for "opportunity", and they are aware of Singapore.

International marketing of S'pore properties by top-end international realtor.

Matilah_Singapura said...

Madam Matilah and I had a talk over the weekend. We've decided: Don't sell. Asset pries on the market are only good if you are buying or selling.

If you own something, it is the cash flow or yield which is the key to wealth. The value of the asset looks good on paper. Once you liquidate, then what?

Try pricing the net worth in troy ounces of gold. You'll be surprised how much more "reasonable" the figures turn out.

In 2001 the price was, I think around US300, SGD-USD was around $1.70, HDB 4 room ~ $280k. Do the math.

Anonymous said...

Me brought up Conrad Raj to show that there are those like Redbean who thinks selling Singapore is a sin if not a crime(treason?)

And also people like Raj who think that Sin should sell hard to foreigners.

And each seems to have good reasons for their advocations.

patriot

Matilah_Singapura said...

Sure. and I have indicated that using the "sin" and "evil" argument is no argument, because there is no such "thing" as sin or evil -- they are moral constructs -- abstracts which reside only in the mind.

When Sin and Evil arguments are used there is no more "seeking the truth". It is assumed that the "truth" is reached and a moral judgement made. In the "real" world (objective reality) this doesn't mean a damn thing.

To quote MM Lee in a Jan 2010 NatGeo interview:

"Singaporeans are champion grumblers."

I agree.

Matilah_Singapura said...

The Singapore Solution

Anonymous said...

Better sell the whole nation to foreign countries since Singaporean are becoming minority soon.