All the way, DBS-Citibank!
Just as I raised my hope for a 7% dividend, it fell flat in my face. And my estimate was way way off. The 7% would have given a return of US$482m pa. GIC could have the money back in no time. Now it is all gone. But don't worry, there is a better and more promising deal. The conversion price which was US$26.35 was watered down to US$3.25 and the conversion to ordinary shares will give GIC an 11% stake in Citibank, the second largest shareholder next to the US govt. And there are more promises along the way. If the market recovers and Citi's price shot up, we could reap much higher returns. If the market plunges and Citi became insolvent or be nationalised, gone with the wind. But the second 'IF' is only a big If. No need to worry about that. In the long term everything will be fine. Now the more juicy part. If our US$6.88b can give us 11% stake in Citibank, it means that the whole bank can be had for no more than US$70b. This is definitely very affordable. Shouldn't GIC launch a general take over of Citibank and merge it with DBS to become an international giant bank? And another piece of good news. There are so many good news and things are looking much rosier. What's that? Oh, Citibank's share price fell to US$1.55. This simply means we could have the bank for less than US$35b. And with already 11% in our hands, US$30b should do the trick. I don't think the US govt will object if we let Chip Goodyear to negotiate the deal. The US govt must be more comfortable with Goodyear in charge. Wow, I think we have all these planned in advance. Great foresight and pro active thinking and decision making. We must have see all these coming. Go for it GIC! Take Citibank under our wings, but make sure the top management are Singaporeans. The Americans can be co opted as advisers. I will definitely bank with DBS Citibank.