12/13/2005

bull run or mule trot?

there is this running advertisement on tv asking when will the bull run ends. i am wondering where or when did the bull run ever started. all i see is a mule trotting round and round the mill, and the owner flogging furiously. but the mule is trotting to no where. superficially there seems to be a bull run based on the volume traded, and an uptrending stock index. but how real is this? did anyone hear of any punters making big money and buying cars and houses, all thanks to the bull run? why is there no euphoria, no one talking about the stock market or queuing to open trading accounts? actually there are many signs that this is a sick stock market, a market that is dying by the days. first indication is the lack of retail investors. ask any remisiers and they will tell you that their phones hardly ring. commission plummets. and many are thinking of quitting. and now ipos are no longer popular. many have been shelved. the latest, an australian reit could not list due to poor demand and bad market sentiment. how can that be when there is a bull run? how did we come to such a state when ipo listing is no longer viable or attractive? what can happen if things continue this way? more remisiers quitting the industry, leading to broking houses retrenching. more companies start to delist from the stock market for low valuation and trading volume. stock exchange has to raise charges to maintain profitability. broking houses starts more retrenchment of support staff. and the cycle will continue to its natural ending. this is the unique story of a fictitious bull run.

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

The so-called bull run will end officially after the GE.

"More Good Years!"

redbean said...

how clever of you.

Speedwing said...

Hi Redbean,

Genting IPO was 7 times over subscibed. Floated at 35 cents and open at 38 cents. Does that constitute a bull run?

When reading the ST each morning I cannot but get this feeling that the Singapore economy is doing fantastically well. Each page of the ST I turn, reveals even more good news about the economy here. All Singaporeans must be really happy just to read all these golden eggs that keep rolling into the Singapore economy. It MUST be true - it is in the ST, isn't it??

With the economy doing so well, please tell me why the COE is at a rock bottom price. This does puzzle me. Maybe somewhere along the way I have missed out on some important points.

redbean said...

hi speed,

today i am in a fantasy mood. but some real stuff first. genting is banking on the sentosa ir. think the chance is high. they are also bidding for macau and london. it is quite a big conglomerate. and casino operator cannot lose money. so down side is low and up side is very good.

as for coe, the story is to let it deflated and be replaced by als. pay when you drive. you own the car and pay while parking in hdb carparks. so the new motto, pay while you drive, pay while you sleep.

as for the good news, this is christmas and it is a time for good news. but christmas will soon be over. lets celebrate the good news and feel good for the time being.

the good news must be true. or else you are accusing the paper for printing untruth. that cannot be.

Speedwing said...

Of course not!!! the ST will never print anything that is not totally true. How can they? I am sure if they do, the Singapore govt will have something to say about it!!

People are in their best mood now because the Singapore shares are coming soon? and what about the bonuses of 2.25 months salary!! You cannot but feel good at this time of the year.

redbean said...

and this is christmas. lets all try to be merry and enjoy christmas.

redbean said...

another ipo, chasen logistics services is not given the green light for listing due to no interest from investors. only 30% of public float taken up.

now, the sign is ominous, when company finds it difficult to get listing because of lack of interest from investors or no investors.