Let me try some number crunching for the Presidential Election based on a few assumptions.
1. 30% of hard core PAP supporters would go to Tharman and Kok Song. Maybe Tharman would get 20% and Kok Song 10%.
2. 30% of hard core protest vote would all go to Kin Lian.
3. 20% vote by ethnicity. So 0.2 x 70 = 14% Chinese, 0.2 x 10 = 2% Indian, 15% of Malay votes can be evenly distributed to pro PAP and opposition. So Kok Song has 7%, Kin Lian also 7% of Chinese votes. Tarman would have 2% of Indian votes. 7.5% Malay votes to Kin Lian, 3.75% each to Tharman and Kok Song.
4. 10% swing votes, assuming Kin Lian gets 5%, Tharman gets 3% and Kok Song 2%.
5. Balance 5% for Others. Tharman gets 3%, Kok Song and Kin Lian get 1% each.
Summation - Can you believe it?
Tharman would get 31.75%, Kok Song 23.75% and Kin Lian 50%. Wow, big upset, Kin Lian won.
Another variation, if all Malay votes go to Tharman, Tharman would get 43%, Kok Song 20%, and Kin Lian 47%. Still Kin Lian won but with smaller margin.
The main problem here is Kok Song's votes. These could have all gone to Tharman, and Tharman could have 63% and win. Split votes may be a big issue for Tharman and the pro PAP camp. Kok Song is likely to take in 20% of the votes, a big share of Tharman/PAP votes.
Just to note, the total in each computation added up to more than 100% as there is a bit of double counting. These are based on very loose guesstimates. The reality after 1 Sep can still be a Tharman victory. The above is only playing with numbers like a general fighting a war on papers. When the assumptions are wrong, the result would be wrong.
Actually, actually, for the pro PAP votes to be 63% is highly generous if past voting results were to be taken into account. In the last 4 corner fight against Tony Tan, he only got 35%. Thus, the opposition camp of the 3 Tans got 65% of the votes. Then again in the fight between Ong Teng Cheong and Chua Kim Yeow, the latter did not even bother to contest. No walkaround, no poster, no pamphlet, don't bother, do nothing practically, and he nearly won. Ong Teong Cheong won after recount by a small margin.
What these past records are saying is that in an EP, the votes for the PAP is not going to be much more than 50%. In a 4 corner fight, with 3 opposition candidates, PAP only could get 35%. Today it is a 3 corner fight with 2 PAP candidates against an opposition candidate, if pro PAP votes are a marginal 50 plus percent, and split between Tharman and Kok Song, Kin Lian would walk off with a comfortable margin. All it needs is for Kok Song to get 10% of the pro PAP split votes. And he is likely to get 20% or more, eating into Tharman's pro PAP votes.
Statistics based on past EP elections did not favour a Tharman win this time. The Kok Song gambit is going to cost Tharman and PAP dearly.
31 comments:
Donald Trump should be a good candidate to be president of Singapore. He is rich, runs a multi billion organisation. He can talk well, can lie until everyone thinks he is right when he is wrong. He is angmoh. He looks good. He looks like a president. He is well known internationally.
Donald Trump has all the desired qualifications to be the elected president and would sure to be elected if he stands.
Ya the only problem is he will not be interested to be a president and figure head for a tiny country
I think Tharman will win the election no matter how the people vote. PAP is god in the little red dot. They can change Indian into Malay, and like Jesus, water into wine.
That old fart NKS is plant to dilute TKL's vote. I don't like him. He has a big ego.
Singaporeans should be concerned about the transfer of wealth, the wealth built by generations of Singaporeans, to foreigners, new citizens and foreign countries. The wealth built up by generations of Singaporeans must be for the benefits of Singaporeans and the children of Singaporeans that built up this wealth.
Ng Kok Song claimed to be for the people of Singapore. An old man who brings his dogs for walks in the park in prams and lives in a dream house while we live in pigeon holes.
He reportedly said that Singapore is very fortunate and should ALLOW MORE FOREIGNERS TO COME IN. This alone is already the clincher for me to strike him off as the next president. An old man still hankering for a young female young enough to be his daughter, beside him. How will that look when their presidential photos adorn public offices? Folks, Tan Kin Liang is the only true blue down to Earth candidate you should vote for president.
Fat hope lar
Agreed man!
Whether it's Omg Lai or Liew Lian or KoSong, whoever become the President must have the people's heart in mind. He must also gain the people's trust and be a people's president.
Singapore's democracy is similar to American democracy. American democracy is false and a fake one. It is pseudo democracy. It is actually a two party duo fascist dictatorship controlled by the self interest and self aggrandized elites of the rogue tycoons in big business and the scoundrel bankers in Wall Street under the Rothschild-Illuminati cabal.The Republicans and the Democrats are actually two sides of the same coin. In the American system it is not the honest and sincere intelligent politicians that get elected. Those that are always elected are the rogues, ruffians, hoodlums, charlatans, crooks and scoundrels who are good at rhetorics and demagougery which they use to sway and con the people. In any case in America you can never find a good intellectual, honest and righteous politician. What about this tiny little dot in the sun. You think for yourself? Is it any different from the rogue United States.
In China no rogues, crooks and scoundrels, hoodlums or charlatans can get into the government political system. All government officials including the country's president, ministers and other important government political officials must rise from the lowest rung of the ladder and be well tested before they can be placed in their respective positions.
Under China's governance no U.S. politicians are qualified to be elected or nominated as president, ministers, senators or congressmen. Is the tiny island in the sun any different from the United States?
The Presidential Election is just a farce wasting people's time and money.
Yang Tai Chung.
Right both Anons,
Not to worry,
https://youtu.be/UhFIupBL7-8?si=ep-nGjENBu-1rHXo
See this Master Stroke Video by Online Citizens of TCB and TKL of them supposed to meet unexpectedly at People's Park Complexes and Chinatown the strong hold of us Ah Pehs.
Tarman would NOT want to come here.
Here already gathered nearly 100% of Ah Pehs and Ah Gongs, oops Ah Kongs votes for him.
Old Chinese Folks are die hard own peoples kia kee langs supporters.
Maybe that Sing Song and Talk Cock NKS will try the same ruse.
Only attraction will be the Tee Kok Liangs TKL supporters ogling at his GF.
Cheers
Just to add Tarman might try Little India.
Also got hear or NOT?
Tarman said Singaporeans aka Singapore is ready to have a Non Chinese PM.
Hello, first stop first. Then Plan B into Operations.
Anyway, Chinkees Sinkies just for their sake of their stauts quos of their present luxurious lifestyles will never bother who over lords them.
I hope TKL wins. He has made lots of promises. He is going to do something about setting policies about investing the reserves I understand. Will such changes benefit all the Tom, Dick and Harry I wonder? He also said that we must have a contest, that is why he is in it just in case there are no other qualified candidates. But he also said that if another candidate is qualified he will step aside. Well, well!
And he also just said that holding the PE is an 'unproductive exercise' and that we should go back to the old system of appointing a President. I agree with him totally. So, what is his real stand actually? I am all for him making changes to the laws to make the elected Presidency redundant? But then, he also said he will be working closely with the PM. Wonder how this will work out?
I am sick and tired of PE elections, and one less election for the President is a blessing in disguise for me. It is truly a waste of my time.
By the way, whoever gets in, can he really make a change to the system and other areas, including the reserves, however independent he profess to be. What I am afraid it that besides not changing the system, the system will change him instead. Presidents appointed or elected, nothing seems to have changed over the years. Perhaps I have not been paying attention.
I concur totally with your assessment Mr. Yang Tai Chung, especially the USA's so called 'democratic system'. It is a farce, a facist dictatorship, created expertly to fool the masses, clear and simple.
The only thing that amazes me is that they managed to fool so many people for so many years, or decades, and still so many people have not woken up or simply refused to wake up.
I also like to add that I agree with the saying that 'stupidity has no cure', seeing the kind of leadership that the USA is having today. I just have no words for that!
When Tan Kin Lian become President, hopefully Singapore will pivot away from India !
Tharman will sure win in the PE and will bring Singapore closer to the globalist WEF and we should be very thankfully. We will have many investors of HNWI throwing money into this small piece of rock.
KS win will promote family's values centered around cats, dogs, and western cultures.
Ah Lian win will be just a temporary relieve, it will take another 50 man years to compile our reserves.
Not to worry. Ah Lian will do a Ong Teng Cheong on the PAP. He is a 'cheong' kind of guy.
Can he go deeper into the billion dollar loss by Temasek as well? Many people are not happy about that. If he does get into another '50 man years to compile' puzzle with some questionable questions, he may not last as long as Ong Teng Cheong though.
When TKL become President, hopefully Singapore will pivot away from India! Should be another voter's wet dream to cling on to. But hopefully, it does not end up with pivoting away from 'Little India' instead, LOL.
India has an iron clad hold on Red Dot, with the CECA, and not that easy to do any pivoting away from. Even China and Russia cannot do anything to India in BRICS. India is the de facto up and coming superpower. They already even colonised part of the moon and put a name to it. Must see if the moon is a little darker tonight.
Read today SundayTimes front page reports on the campaign by the 3 candidates and you can see the bias.
TKL is reported to be unprofessional, dropping his phone and present not too flattering angles while Tharman amd wife were "swarmed" by residents and stallholders at Tiong Bahru market.
We are seeing more and more establishment fiqures coming out to endorse Tharman and more online smears on TKL. The first can turn off lots of common folks and latter draw more sympathy and anti establiishmemt voters.
While I was sitting on the fence in the beginning, now my family and friends have decided to place our trust onTKL.
My advance congrats to President Tan Kin Lian !
Hi Anon 4.56
Right choice!
Cheers
They had to keep harping bad incidents on TKL so as to make him looked bad.
What's nonsense they said the President had no powers and kept tarring TKL as ignorant.
If no powers then What's the he'll they took so much pains to have the Elected President?
Might as will appointed a Ceremonial Figure Head.
Oops, we have so many Papies Figure Heads in the Past.
That's why they even now can said that the Elected President is a Block Head.
Just to add if the Elected President is a Figure Head then why they are so fearful that they must always put their Figure Block Head and feared that others might be the choice President?
Ceremonial or not, have powers or not, but he holds the rubber stamp. That is what is important. When they ask the President to use his rubber stamp, that is the only thing they can use him for, and he must obey. Would we believe he can realistically say no, and telling them it is up to him to consider. It is all just to have someone to hold the rubber stamp to be used when needed, to make it more ceremonious, LOL. Key? What key?
Just like the UN. If the USA tells the UN chief to use his rubber stamp to justify the invasion of Iraq, did the UN Chief said the invasion is illegal and refused to comply? I believe it works on the same principle.
Morning All,
Wah Today's Shits Times Front page had this caption
"ASKED THE NEXT PRESIDENTS " With Tarman and that Sing Song and Talk Cock together as two cheeks from the same arse smiling as though they sure cock sure that either ONE will be the Next Papies President.
Said TKL declined to be invited to the ST Forum.
This is the propgranda machine and mouth piece of the Papies in any Elections on the monies of the taxpayers.
Sinkies been brainwashed by them long long ago.
What's amateurish! Questions all sieved on tapes by schoolboys.
Ever see our Education Minister even delivery of a small trivial speech had to look into the prompter in front of him and read.
No wonder cannot be PM.
Only capabilites of all these Sinkies Miltary Fatigues wearing Leaders are spouting vulgar words and "Kee Chiu" in front of frightened 18 years old.
Also worse than TKL aka Tee Kok Liangs only admired girls and not into scandals extra martial.affairs.
Unlike those real daring ones of African Nations.
Who dares took over corrupted and incompetence governments for the sake of their improvised and sufferings peoples.
Oops forget to add.
With an Education Minister of ours like that how to churn out outstanding and excellence future talented professionals and workers?
No wonder have to have all the socalled Fake talents from India.
Anyway, no eyes see. Just pity the future ones.
Also Sinkies also like that Bidamn's equally daft Americunts in dementia stages.
President Tan Kin Lian will surely take a hard look at Singapore sovereign wealth funds' investments in India !
And the lost of $30.8 billion by MAS and $7.3 billion by Temasek.
CECA would like have to go to protect the interest of Singaporeans.
NKS may be degrading himself by acting strange. He tried his best not to win TS. Giving majority of PAP voters to TS. The more PAP voters not voting NKS, the more TS get. To nailed the coffin for a win for TS, NKS should quit. If not TKL may win by a slim margin against PAP split votes
President Tan Kin Lian will surely rally Singaporeans to boycott all seafood and marine products from Japan in response to Tokyo's decision to release radioactive waste water from its nuclear power plant in Fukushima from Aug 24.
Vote Tan Kin Lian to terminate CECA.
Vote Tan Kin Lian to audit Singapore's Chennai Business Park.
Vote Tan Kin Lian to demand accountability for MAS's loss of $30.8 billion.
Vote Tan Kin Lian to demand accountability for Temasek's loss of $7.3 billion.
Vote Tan Kin Lian to raise interest rates for CPF savings.
Vote Tan Kin Lian to provide more financial assistance to the seniors.
Vote Tan Kin Lian to stop raising GST.
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