The crisis of the falling value of the rupee of India
is in the front page of many papers recently. At least 20% of the value has
been wiped off for those holding to the rupee currency. The second most
populous country and setting it sight to overtake China as the next economic
giant of Asia is now struggling with a lost of confidence in the rupee.
While the crisis is just unfolding, below is an article by Venkatesh, a
Chartered Accountant that revealed the workings of the Indian bureaucracy and
how money has to be paid all the way to get a project on the way. It is quite
startling even to Venkatesh and the full article is worth reading by those
intending to invest in India.
Bid sovereign wealth funds must really be in the know of the corporate culture
of India to
place their multi million or billion dollar bets in the Indian economy. Lacking
such knowledge and bravely punting and putting money into India
is only for the brave and the knaves.
I have deleted some of the details to shorten the article. For those who
want more the link is available. Happy reading.
'Indian economy comes to a fullstop
A fairly large South-Indian group with varied business
interests had invited me to a strategy session to turn it around. It was the
first meeting and was to be preceded by breakfast. As we waited to be served, I
perused their latest balance sheet.
Noticing that it was a profitable, tax and dividend paying company, where
was the question of turnaround I wondered? Nevertheless, I instantly zeroed in
on the balance sheet. I observed that the company had invested approximately Rs
700 (
1 crore = 10 million) crore on its subsidiaries and
lent another Rs 300 crore — in the aggregate Rs 1,000 crore. Flipping across
the accounts, I asked a simple question – what is the return from this
investment of Rs 1,000 crore? (Amounts changed for obvious reasons.)
The CFO was silent. The executive director hummed and hawed. The body
language of the rest was a dead giveaway of their uneasiness to discuss this
matter further.
The junior-most amongst them blurted out, perhaps unwittingly, that it was
virtually nil. His answer got a cold stare from his superiors. “Nil!” I
exclaimed to the horror of my hosts. “You must be paying approximately Rs 150
crore as interest annually on this sum.” I commented, probably rubbing salt
into their wounds. I went on to probe further, “Why, what happened to this
money?”….
Unable to bear my repeated questioning, the CFO finally broke down. “Sir, as
you are aware we are in infrastructure. That requires tremendous pay-offs to
politicians and bureaucrats. We have used approximately 150 subsidiaries, some
of which are foreign ones, to route these payments.”
I was stunned. My jaw dropped. “Sir, we expected you to know all these
practicalities of our business. The turnaround strategy needs to factor these
ground realities.” ….
The economics of kickbacks and payoffs
Instantly my thoughts raced to the Nira Radia tapes. Fifteen per cent was
the kickbacks payable to the Minister concerned for approving every road
contract. Add another fifteen to the bureaucracy and local politicians. Add
another five to seven to bankers,
lawyers, consultants and agents to procure funds. What we have is a staggering
35-40 per cent additional cost to every infrastructure project….
There is another dimension to this issue. Somewhere down the line these
“costs” were funded, mostly by our banks. Corporates altered their top-line as
well as bottom-line to keep their banks in good humor….
The impact of gold plating
….The net result – twenty per cent of lending by Indian Banks is stressed.
Obviously, when banks end up funding pay-offs and kickbacks, this is the end
result. And that is a whopping Rs 11 lakh crores – approximately $200 billion –
a sum that even the banks in USA
cannot afford.
Added to this is the stress on account of our external accounts. The foreign
debt has risen to $390 billion. This was a mere $225 billion in 2008. What is
galling is that the foreign exchange reserve has remained at a constant $300
billion during this period. Needless to emphasise, the ratio of foreign
exchange reserves to foreign debt has deteriorated from 138 per cent then to
less than 75 per cent now.
What is adding to the consternation is that in the short term – by March
2014 – we need to pay approximately $172 (billion) of our foreign debts. This
works out to approximately 44 per cent of the external debt and a staggering 60
per cent of the total foreign exchange reserves of the country.