The beautiful island chain containment strategy to lock China from the Pacific Ocean was a great plan conceived and executed by the American Empire for decades. It started with the first island chain stretching from Japan in the north, through Taiwan and the Philippines, keeping Chinese naval ships to move only along the Chinese coastal waters. Subsequently a second island chain and a third island chain were also added with the latter centred around the Hawaii islands, past the half way line of the Pacific Ocean. These two chains were the fall back positions to anticipate a growing Chinese naval strength.
When the first island chain was first put in place, all the American military assets and hardware were stationed in South Korea and Japan, with a sprinkling number of smaller presence in Taiwan and the Philippines. The Philippines were once a major American base with Clark Airbase and Subic Naval Base, two of the largest American overseas establishment until they were told to vacate by the nationalistic Pinoys. Now the pro American Marcos govt has reinvited the Americans to set up 10 bases again in the Philippines.
For the most part of the 20th Century, these American bases and assets served their roles very well and very safe. The Americans could use them to launch military operations against China, North Korea or the Soviet Union from a safe distance. They could actually go to war with China but partying in the bases of the first island chain with complete safety and not to be disturbed or attacked. Such were the predominance power of the American Empire and the relative weaknesses of the PLA. Yes, they were very effective and successful in containing China and the PLAN to play only at their doorstep, unable to sail into the Pacific Ocean. The Japanese warship used to rule the seas off China, threatening and harassing Chinese fishing boats and small warships. The Pinoy's coastguards and naval ships also acted like pirates, arresting Chinese fishing boats and demanding ransoms for their release.
The whole of western Pacific Ocean, including the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea were as good as an America lake. They could sail anywhere they want, fly anywhere they want, even flying U2s deep over China mainland for reconnaisance mission. American recce warplanes flying up and down the Chinese coast was a daily affair, a daily routine. And China could not do anything about it, until the incident in Hainan Island in 2001. Then the arrogant and provocative Americans were doing their usual recce run along the Chinese coast when a Chinese J8 collided with an American EP3 spy plane. The EP had to make and emergency landing in Hainan Island. The Chinese pilot was killed in the accident.
China kept the EP3 on the ground in Hainan for 10 days before cutting it up into pieces, put into boxes to be sent back to the US, not before stripping every instrument to dissect the American hardware and software. This incident was the turning point in stopping the Americans from strutting freely into Chinese airspace. China was prepared to confront them and take them down.
For the last few decades, China was furiously rushing through a military modernisation programme to stop the Americans from treating the western Pacific Ocean as their playground with no respect for China, threatening and humiliating the PLA everyday. China has since successfully developed an Anti Access and Area Denial Strategy to safeguard its territorial integrity, airspace and territorial seas. With its advanced and highly sophisticated missile force comprising of the DF 17, 21 and 26, and also the J11,15,16 and now the J20, and a fleet of modern submarines, destroyers, frigates and aircraft carriers, China is now fully competent in defending its rights over the air and sea of the western Pacific Ocean.
What do these mean for the American's first island chain? All the military bases in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines are now withing striking distance of Chinese missiles, drones, warplanes and warships. They are no longer the safe havens that they used to be, to conduct wars against China and out of reach from Chinese attacks. The PLA does not need to sweat the small stuff to hit all the bases any time it so wishes in the comfort of air conditioned bunkers deep inside China. The operators need only to press a few buttons to blow up everything up within minutes. It is like playing computer games.
Yes, all the American military bases and assets in the first island chain, and also the second island chain, are no longer untouchable. They are easy targets to be taken out in the first few minutes of a war. They are precarious military assets now at the mercy of the PLA. The third island chain is just as vulnerable.
All the three island chains are obsolete, redundant, just like American aircraft carriers. If the aircraft carriers are sitting ducks, or slow moving targets that can be easily taken out, the stationary military bases are even easier targets for the PLA. They are all sacrificial lambs the Americans have offered to the PLA in today's tech warfare involving hypersonic missiles, drones in place of long range artillery guns.
The Washington clowns are still oblivious to the danger facing these bases. They have yet to scratch their heads because they are still on fentanyl and living in the past. They are even trying to put more of such assets in islands in the Philippines and Japan. Shhhhhh, let them do it happily and think of them as assets to threaten China in a war. The PLA has all these bases and assets in their cross hair and only need to push a few buttons to vaporise them at the first notice, the first casualty of war. It only takes an hour or less, without having to risk a soldier, a pilot or a sailor. These were assets during a time when they could not be hit. They are now liabilities, hostages that could be taken out at China's pleasure, just like the whole of Japan.
The Washington clowns are still believing that the American forces and their bases are the best in the world, untouchable, cannot be taken out, can project power to all corners of the world. The Chinese weapons are fakes, plastic toys, that would break apart with a slight knock ... like the French world best Rafale fighter aircraft. Happy dreaming and planning with the chief clown military strategist in Trump in charge. Oops, oops, Trump is not that stupid. He is going to withdraw all the aircraft carriers and warships to fight drug traffickers in the Caribbean, a safer option than fighting the PLA.
Just watch when the Americans suddenly woke up to their obsolete doctrine and hurriedly pull out all their bases and American boys and girls in the western Pacific or be lame sitting ducks for target practice by China. They do not stand a chance against swarms of hypersonic missiles and drones! Instantly cooked, like instant noodles.
3 comments:
The Kuril Island Chain has been under dispute between Russia and Japan over ownership claims and is the break in the Chain containment of China and Russia that the USA had been looking for. Japan is thinking of taking over that chain of Islands, but the Russians will never accede, as it will expose Russia's Eastern flank should USA weapons be placed on those islands.
Russia (or formerly the Soviet Union) had fought massive battles against the Japanese invaders over Eastern Russia in the past and have no love lost for the barbaric Japanese.
Russia has even warned the Japanese about siting missiles on islands near to China. The message is clear. China and Russia have formulated ties of mutual protection and will not be standing by should a war against Japan erupt. China's capitulation to the Japanese and USA invaders, an impossible scenario nevertheless, will expose Russia's underbelly by having to face USA nuclear missiles on its border.
And there is North Korea watching developments closely, as North Korea needs China to balance its survival chances. I sense it is only a matter of time when Trump will talk about invading North Korea, LOL. But right now, Trump is overwhelmed by problems of his own, both domestically and personally to think of that. But who knows, when he suffers a nightmare in bed and wakes up the next morning shouting about invading North Korea.
China is very serious about the South China Sea islands and Taiwan in particular. Taiwan falling into Japanese hands officially gives the USA almost a footstep away into China, just a 112-mile channel separating them. Not that Taiwan is not now officially handled by politicians that are Japanese traitors masquerading as Taiwanese, LOL. That is why Taiwan is the 'red line' that China will never be allowed to be crossed. Internally that is just still acceptable, but externally the line had been drawn.
In the Japanese Surrender Documents, Japan consisted of the 4 main islands. All other islands had been stripped from Japan's jurisdiction, including the Kurile Islands. The Japanese are trying to seize these islands from the Russians. They have already seized all the islands in the South in conspiracy with the treacherous Americans.
Japanese and American occupation and deployments in the Ryukyu Islands are illegal and illegitimate. They are the neo colonialists in the Ryukyu Islands and have to be evicted.
Independence for the Ryukuans. But the evil Americans and Japanese would not allow it. Aren't the Americans breathing about freedom, democracy and human rights every day? What about the rights of the Ryukuans?
USA's beautiful containment of China in the maritime sector using Straits of Malacca, Suez Canal and Panama Canal is now also facing obsolescence.
The Panama Canal itself is dying a natural death due to climate change. The Suez Canal's navigation usage is in the hands of the Houthis, and up to them to control using the Bab Al-Mandab entrance to the Red Sea from the South. The Straits of Malacca faces uncertainty over the Isthmus of Kra development if implemented. Moreover, China's Belt and Road development has solved some of the geopolitical issues using the links afforded by the railway system. On top of that, the Arctic route is being explored by Russia and China for trade with Europe.
As of now, some shipping companies, mainly USA or Israeli owned or operated, are going around South Africa to avoid the Suez Canal. More expensive for shippers and longer, but definitely safer.
Perhaps we could also talk about the technological containment that the USA is carrying out against China. In AI, Chinese development is already on par with multi-billion developers in the USA, but at a fraction of the cost. In robotics, China is probably ahead in application throughout its industrial sector, while developers in the USA like Elon Musk are looking at selling of robots for homeowners to boost egos with robots doing housework. USA does not have the manufacturing base to leverage on robotics like China.
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