Never underestimate the talent of Chinese people

 Never forget what the Chinese warned earlier about making EUV or DUV machines, the size of washing machines, and costing just only as much to sell to the rest of the world. Never say it can never happen.

Decades ago, top category copying machines, made by IBM or Rank Zerox, were the size of a small car and cost a bomb that only big companies could afford. Today, a printer, the size of a small attache case can do printing, copying and faxing all in one, and cost so much less. Or take the case of the mobile phone that came a long way from those heavyweight Motorola monsters that could be used for weight training and costing a bomb. A comparable low end mobile phone today costs less than S$200. Who would have thought it possible?

When there is a will, there is a way. The USA and the West were all the time betting on China not retaliating by using its dominance in the rare earth sector, both in reserves and processing. China did retaliate and now the USA and the West are in sixes and sevens, unable to find enough rare earth resources to extract Germanim to compensate for the control exerted by China. The other problem is that the USA still relies on China's rare earth processing facilities, even for its own rare earth ores, and that is another hurdle to overcome more urgently if the tech war escalates.

Various options were talked about earlier regarding Mongolia's rare earth project with the USA, including trying to coax Mongolia to negotiate with the Chinese to lease part of Tianjin Port for shipping rare earth extracted in Mongolia to be shipped to South Korea for refining. The USA thinks the Chinese are blur sotongs and will just simply allow that. China is never going to allow that. There was even talk of airlifting those ores, which will still need to go through China or Russia's airspace, apart from the cost involved. Both options failed upon inception. Now Mongolia is said to be co-operating with China instead.

The more ridiculous option, which clearly shows the desperation of the USA and the West, was the talk of recycling Germanium in minute quantities from old mobile phones and computers, which was found to be even more expensive to undertake than refining rare earth ores to extract Germanium. There was a need to set up expensive recycling facilities and how to resolve the problems associated with the waste generated is even more taxing.

I believe the shortage of Germanium is now critical for the USA and the West, especially for its military usage and chip production. Hence, the USA is being pushed against the war and is lashing out against Huawei. But China can do a tit for tat, with so many channels it can retaliate. 

Anonymous