South China Sea – An alignment of forces for domination and control

There are good and bad things coming out from this Hague circus and its South China Sea show. Let me start with the bad stuff first. The Permanent Court of Arbitration, an international institution created to uphold justice and peace, has unfortunately allowed itself to be embroiled in a power struggle for hegemony in the South China Sea. It is in the deep end, having sank into the quagmire for the last few years and unable to extricate itself to come up clean from the mud of infamy. Its decision is likely to compromise the good name and reputation of the institution of the Permanent Court of Arbitration and the judges involved.  At worst, it will destroy the very reason for the existence of such an international body, a highly respectable, neutral and legal institution to arbitrate and resolve international disputes.

And here is the good outcome from the pronouncement by the Court. I would not call it a legal and enforceable judgment. It is not and it will not be legal but a political statement from an institution that has lost its credibility as an independent and impartial world body. The good outcome will come about when countries with vested interests start to make their stand public to reveal their private agenda.  China would then know who are friends and who are foes.  There will be no need to hide behind a mask anymore.

There will be a new alignment of forces for control of the South China Sea, politically and militarily. The risk of war is real and eminent as the main protagonist will have the countries in the region fighting among themselves, leaving the main protagonists safe and sound from afar. The announcement by the Court would also make China’s choices and options easier. To borrow a phrase from George Bush Jr, it is either with me or against me. There is no need for pretences and speaking in fork tongues.  Asean countries will take their chosen places on both sides of the divide.

China does not need to be diplomatic anymore to appease the hegemon and think the problems of an open military confrontation will go away. China would have to take sides and close ranks with its friends against its foes. It is crisis time and China cannot afford to compromise its position and security to side with the hegemon and its foes against its friends. China must take decisive decision to part ways with the hegemon bent on confrontation. China would have to be resolute and firm and review all its policies vis a vis the hegemon and be prepared to take sides against the hegemon and its allies or be left to stand up against the hegemon and its allies, alone.

The Hague pronouncement is like D Day with the battle line drawn up. There is no more grey area, no more superficial friendship. The forces of the two sides will stand up to be counted and all policies must be realigned to face this new and risky challenge to China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the South China Sea.

A new and dangerous chapter in the story of the South China Sea is about to be written. The way forward is military confrontation with the hegemon and its allies upping the stakes in a winner take all gambit.  China’s appeasement policies to avoid war are not working. War is coming to China and the earlier China makes up its mind the better. It is a critical moment in history when China would have to call on all its friends and allies to act together to face the combined forces of the hegemon and its allies.

The only hope for avoiding a nasty confrontation is for the new President of the Philippines to break ranks and to start negotiation with China, to seek for a peaceful and mutually beneficial solution for both countries. Such a decision by the Philippines would be the only way to scuttle the aggressive intent of the hegemon, to give it no reason and justification to push for a nasty and explosive solution in open warfare in the South China Sea.

Would there be wisdom within the Asean ranks, especially those that have no conflicting claims in the South China Sea, to call out and walk away from the battle field drawn up by the hegemon? Or would they be dragged by the less enlightened Asean states into a war that has nothing to do with them and nor to their national interests?