India only has one plan...takeover. India is out to take everything, companies, industries, countries, and there are silly people inviting India to takeover everything

India is in big trouble going forward. India has many issues to take care of besides trying to stay as the sixth biggest economy in the world.

The most difficult problem for India right now is creating jobs for 12 million new university graduates coming onstream into the job market every year, without the corresponding mass job creation afforded by manufacturing. India is still largely an agrarian society, with more than 40% of its population still engaged in agriculture cum husbandry activities. The rise of AI and the Middle East war have added further pressure on India. Much of India's service industry that had been catering to Western companies using Indian workers for back-office jobs, have now been replaced by AI. The Iran War has also added another layer of problem for India, with Indian workers returning home to compete with new Indian graduates for jobs. These returning workers are educated and experienced, fighting for the tight job opportunities available. Therein lies the massive problem for India.

Of course, India can do what China did, albeit in 30 to 50 years' time optimistically speaking, but foreign direct investments have dried up from USA and the West. The USA, under Trump has classified India as a shithole, so think about that. The Europeans are no rich uncles themselves, already devastated by the Ukraine War and energy problems. Now, Europe is fighting a tariff war against the USA, so forget about European investing big in India.

The only source of investments for India is China. Chinese investments worldwide had been reported to be around US$130 billion annually, but in the face of the problems between India and China, it is unlikely to attract Chinese FDI into India. After all, the Chinese Government has warned Chinese companies to stay away from India. India wanted to please the USA by biting the hand that could help it with good investments, but India bit the hand of the Chinese over and over again.

Another big problem for India going big into manufacturing is the lack of infrastructures. There is no high-speed rail or even up-to-date rail network, roads are just pot-hole tracks, movement of raw materials and finished goods takes ages, and the supply chain for manufacturing is still largely outside the country. Moreover, the whole country is still highly corrupted, from the top Government leaders to the foot soldiers carrying out the duty of administrating policies. It is always the outstretch hand for bribes in order for things to be allowed to be done.

As I said before, all that hype about India's big expanding population as a dividend to be reaped is all hubris. It is more a massive liability for India to have a bursting young population without jobs. An expanding population is a boom for advanced countries like Japan and some European states, but not in a country as poor as India, whatever the showboating about a young population is trying to sell.


Anonymous