“Today, the average per capita income of the Indian residing in the US is US$55,298. If Indians in India can achieve the same per capita income, the total GNP of India would be around US$71 trillion, making it the largest economy in the world, larger than the US at US$21 trillion, or China at US$15 trillion,” he explained.
“If this figure is unimaginable, let’s imagine that the average Indian in India is half as smart as the average Indian in the US. Then India would still have a GNP of US$35 trillion, still larger than that of the US at US$21 trillion and China at US$15 trillion.”
That is, Mahbubani took the average per capita income (US$55,298) of Indians residing in the US and multiply that by the population of India to arrive at the potential total GNP of India of about US$71 trillion. But India’s GNP today is only US$2.6 trillion.
Mahbubani, of course, is also assuming that while India’s GNP improves, US and China’s economies are standing still.
The above is from an article by Kishore Mahbubani posted in TOC on why he believed India could have a bigger economy than China. And he used statistics to prove it. I know many arts students are very bright, but when maths is concerned, when they try to use statistics, the brightness gets a bit dimmer.
His whole hypothesis is based on not only one 'if' but many 'ifs' and also on the choice of data that he used that is anything but realistic. If his statistics is even half as good as he wants the readers to believe, then the readers can also believe that elephants can fly.
The Indians in the USA are about the brightest of the Indians you can find. The top 1 or 3% of any population cannot be equated to the average 50% of the population, ceteris paribus, just like the wealth of top 1 to 3% richest men cannot be equated to the average wealth of the 50 percentile average men. It is not going to be a simple linear correlation. It is definitely not half, not even a quarter. The average Indians are not half as bright at the average Indian Americans.
Also, the average income of the Americans, American Indians, is in US$. The average income of Indians in India is in rupees. Then again, Kishore did not give a time frame but it is possible that one day, dunno when is this one day, the average income of an India Indian could be that of an average Indian American today. And when that day comes, dunno what would be the average income of an American Indian or the average income of a Chinese would be. There are many moving variables and many, many ifs. The American and Chinese economies are not going to stand still for the Indian economy to catch up, though that is also a possibility.
Good try Kishore. It is a feel good opinion piece and many Indians would be very happy to hear what Kishore had to say.
11 comments:
Firstly India must lift more than a billion Indians out of poverty then can talk. That is beyond the political dynamism needed, with power dependent on voters to decide. China is different with leaders not having to cater to the whims and fancies of groups having vested interest.
Secondly, while China infrastructure is now the showpiece example for the world, one glaring example is that India cannot even get started on it's high speed rail system, which is beset with land acquisition problems for a start. The recent COVID19 catastrophe months ago revealed the massive shortcomings of the Indian infrastructure. Roads and rails need massive upgrading in order for economic uplifting, and again land acquisition is a problem. Projects move at snail like pace because of this. How to overtake others unless others stop moving ahead before they can even catch up.
Thirdly, increase in population is exacting a heavier toll on the Indian economy than often touted as an asset. Sure, India has a younger population, but that is a burden on present scant available economic resources and will not help uplift living standards. Some small minority will move up, but majority will lag further behind. The minority will enjoy USA standard of income, but the majority will still wallow in poverty without the basic skills and opportunities.
Finally, as one religious sect leader commented - India can never be a world superpower because it is a very corrupt country. That truly hurts.
@Virgo49 - you need update yourself about entrepreneurship. 34% of start-ups in Silicon valley have Indians as their founders or co-founders. This are a big segment of the highly educated ones. Also, 60% of motels, petrol stations and 7-11s are owned by Indians, many of them non-graduates. Salary men? Yes, the 1 in 7 Americans who are doctors and 1 in 10 who are academics are what you describe as living on "prepared lunches". .
Switzerland and Denmark are not the number one economies (not even in Europe), but their citizens are probably the most advanced, happiest and comfortable compared to any country in the world. Biggest is irrelevant except for those who want to boast, or show off shiny new things.
We cannot be living in the past or live in a one dimensional old-fashioned world. Advanced economies are service oriented economies.
It is pointless being envious about people who are more successful than us. Maybe they are more capable. Let them have their success. Let's try to find some happiness in what we have. I am still puzzled why Singaporeans were surveyed as being the unhappiest people despite having the highest GDP/capita in the world (other than Luxembourg and Qatar). So, having the biggest economy in the world doesn't really mean much if the people are unsatisfied and unhappy and always complaining.
I think Singaporeans are the luckiest people in the world. Why? Because Singapore govt is one of the best. The PAP is always looking out for the people and always ready to help whosoever in need. Of course for being so efficient they need to be paid a hefty salary. Why not? They fully deserve the reward for their hard work.
It is always a good feeling to blow bubbles, but when the bubbles burst, all that is left is air that you cannot even see.
When Indians reach the level of what those in USA earns, dunno when, how much will the Chinese or US citizens be earning, will certainly not be what they are earning today. Catching up can be difficult when you are chasing from so far behind, and others are also moving ahead. Die die can try.
@Virgo49 - Defending on Tourism and Hotels and Airlines and bowed as low as the Japanese.
If you think that represents the service economy of today, it's no wonder why you're left behind and always disgruntled. IT, banking, logistics, trade, operations, accounting, HR, shipping, energy production and sales, bio-technology, healthcare, education, government services, social services, environmental protection and clean-up, resource exploration, back-office services are all examples of non face-to-face services where you don't need to bow down. What you think is service economy is less than 20% of most service economy countries, including Singapore.
No one said or thought that Silicon valley was started by Indians, except you. It is still evolving. The rice is not cooked there either. They have people, technology, money and competition. Everyone still have plenty of opportunities to fail.
Nothing beats your industrial products and innovations that you can offered to the World's Markets than just these Service Oriented Industries that you have to see their faces and their demands and whims and fancies.
Outdated thinking.
Highly Educated Population depending on Tourism?
Hotels? Ports entreport trades?
Airlines services?
Man Made Artificial Gardens and Water Splashing Fountains?
Commissions Agents?
Free Lance Works?
These are for those with NO sound economy and NOT so helicopter educated and have to earn the Tourists dollars like Thailand, Bali and Melaka and other states.
Must be like Japan, S.Korea and China with their never ending innovations of industrial as household products that sells to the World for Foreign Exchange into their Coffers.
Their R + D innovations of new products.
Even Taiwan produced their Chips.
Sinkies land only produced open legged cheap cheep servile services that already past due dates.
Had a long head start with so much reserves that should be invested on their own on Industries and Research and Innovations but preferred to throw away in Foreign Lands like Casinos Bettings.
Sad sad indeed
If India had talked or bragged a little less and worked a little more, it could have gone some way in meeting that objective Kishore is talking about.
But no, with tens of thousands cases, they needed to boast to the world they opened up, and ready to help all to eradicate covid19, only to suffer the worst of all and causing the virus the mutate into the more infectious and deadly variant that is now raging many countries and rendering vaccines less effective.
Still yet to eat humbling pie, India has sent naval vessels to the SC Sea as a show of force with the US and its allies against China.
Btw, cut Kishore some slack. He is one the the very few academics standing up for China against the lies of the West. The other two worth mentioning are Martin Jacques and Jeffrey Sachs.
If India had been less boastful and tried not to tow the USA line so clearly in countering China, to the extent of being a member of the QUAD, whose objective is well know, China and Chinese elsewhere would probably cut some slack in their criticism.
Why always talk of India becoming the next superpower when the facts does not bear out this possibility, even within this century. Even China today never talk about it's intention to replace the USA. Yes, they probably do in discreet mode, but they know the limitations.
Suffice to say, to take on the role of a world leader needs lots more than hot air. Military power plus economic power, and the ability to convince the world of what they are capable of doing. China is helping to develop the world for future progress, not in destroying it. The USA, unfortunately misused that power and lost the moral high ground. It's economic power is also waning, although some may still differ.
One video Youtube by a Professor said UAssA now even cannnot produce a pair of shoes or even ventators when they needed them during their early stage Virus infection
Ventilators? They cannot even produce a television set now. Their last 2 companies Zenith and Magnavox are not longer around. Same with typewriters.
Still can produce F16 and F35 to sell. Too bad cannot breathe in F16 exhaust. Sure kill the virus.
They exploited cheap labour in China to produce all the consumer stuff for them in exchange for their fiat money.
Now they have woken up to the realisation that those fiat money, accumulated in abundance and used by China to develop infrastructures and help poor countries worldwide, with some going back to the USA to buy up assets, gold and raw materials, is screwing them back via their arsehole. Hence the trade war, preventing the listing of Chinese companies in the USA, all of which are designed not to further add to the Chinese buying power.
Of course producing F16 and F35 themselves is one of their only source of export to the rest of the world and they have to sustain their military establishment. How else can they survive with about a thousand military bases to maintain.
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