Would Singapore lose its unique identity?

In an article titled, ‘Get ready for a formidable, rising China’ by Han Fook Kwang, in the Sunday Times, he laid out a possible scenario of what Singapore could become in the wake of a rising China. Han Fook Kwang talked about the three phases of China’s development as an economic and world power. The first phase is about economic expansion through trade and development. Unless Asean and the world could produce goods that are cheaper and value for money than the Chinese, their products will be sought after by everyone wanting value and utility. This will be followed by a second phase of soft power in culture through movies and the arts.

The third phase would be the use of Mandarin for communication. This is seen as a natural development when economic and social interactions with China are so widespread and pervasive that people, including Sinkies, would just use the language as a convenient and necessary tool. Then there will be no need for Speak Mandarin Campaign. Singapore will ‘lose its unique identity and become more like another Chinese city, not much different from the many cities in the mainland.’

Han Fook Kwan hoped that it would not happen but this cannot be ruled out. His theory is based on external forces and the rise of a new economic power that has such an overpowering presence to change the world and the Singapore’s identity. I have another theory based on internal forces that could change Singapore’s identity into another form.

The govt has put in place, top priority policies, to fill the islands with foreigners in the name of lower birth rate, ageing population and economic growth, and in the process, instead of replacement, to increase the population to 6.9m. We are seeing the influx of foreigners in great numbers over the last decade or so and will gain momentum in the coming years.

The foreigners are coming, the westerners, the Chinese, the Indians and those from Asean countries. The westerners are unlikely to make any impact. The three biggest groups are likely to be the Chinese, the Indians and the Pinoys. The Pinoys have grown to several hundred thousands from a handful overnight. But with the tightening of employment passes, their numbers are going to slow down a bit. The large bulk of the Pinoy maids would not turn them into stayers and changing of our demography less of a problem.

As for the Chinese, many would return to China like the Hongkies when their home country is growing in riches and opportunities. Singapore is not really their cup of tea except for a small group that are very wealthy and have reasons to want to stay away from China. The rest will return to China when they find making money there easier than here. China will draw them back.

The next biggest group of migrants is the Indians. They see Singapore as a paradise, a land of opportunities, many times better than India. They are coming here in swarms, especially the rich and the PMETs. They brought their families to stay, buying up properties in large numbers. And there is this Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement, CECA, which provides a legal framework for the mass migration of Indians into the island. Their numbers have already outnumbered the local Indians and growing rapidly. The attraction of India for the near future is not looking that much attractive than Singapore for them to return. Singapore is the idea place to live and do business.

With both govts abiding closely to the CECA terms, the influx of Indians will become a dominant factor that will change the social economic fabric and the demography of the island. When the Indians become a majority in the island, Singapore is likely to take on a more Indian outlook and English will remain the dominant language for social and business activities. Mandarin would then become of lesser importance despite the growing presence of China in the international scene.

Would the external forces of a rising China over shadow the influx of Indians into the island provided by CECA, or would the latter be so domineering that it will change the demography of the island and prevent Singapore from becoming just another Chinese city? Anyway, both scenarios would definitely change the unique identity of the island, one becoming more Chinese and the other becoming more Indian. The probability of external factors to alter the identity of a country is less likely to happen than an internal factor that is a govt initiative and supported by two govts with an official agreement to see it through.