The Empire strikes back

China, an emerging superpower has stake its claim to its right to defend its territories and to reclaim territories lost during the years when it was weak. Its designation of an ADIZ over its air space and territorial seas that have been grabbed by Japan and used as a playground by the Empire is being challenged by both head on. The Japanese refused to recognize the ADIZ, like the Americans, and even ordered its commercial airlines, ANA and Japan Airlines not to comply with China’s request. The Americans have blatantly flown two of its biggest bombers through the ADIZ as a show of defiance, to show who is boss.
 
China is now forced to react. Not doing anything would expose its weakness and would encourage other pesky countries to dismiss its ADIZ as well. It is now a matter of how to react and how to keep an even keel without raising tension to a level when hostility is the next recourse.
 
There are many things that China can do on a graduated scale short of hitting force with force. During the days of Cold War, the USSR had repeated flown their planes into the British ADIZ unannounced. The British would respond by scrambling their fighters to meet the approaching Soviet aircraft. And they would fly side by side, waving at each other. This went on for many years until the pilots could even recognize each other as acquaintances. Both sides were just testing each other’s capability and resolve without raising the temperature. The Soviet bombers would fly in and the British would scramble to intercept. They would stay in the air until the fuel ran out. Both sides did not risk any hostile posturing.
 
This is one way China may deal with the Americans and even the Japanese aircraft in its ADIZ. The Japanese have been doing the same to Chinese aircraft in its ADIZ. At a higher level, China could do another Hainan Act when a Chinese pilot flew into the path of the American recce aircraft and allowed it to be rammed by the Americans. The Chinese pilot was killed but not before taking down the American aircraft that was forced to land and detained in Hainan. The aircraft was stripped into bits, with the Chinese having a preview of American equipment and technology. This act could be reenacted should the Americans push the Chinese too hard.
 
A variation to this could be the flying of drones into the path of the intruders and let them crash into it. Drones are difficult to control and an accident with the drones is highly possible.
 
In the case of civilian aircraft, this is a bit tricky as the safety and discomfort of many civilian lives will be at stake. Japan is willing to play this chicken game by risking the lives of its passengers. What would or could the Chinese do? When tested, the Chinese could force the civilian aircraft to land in a Chinese airport, escorted by the Chinese fighter jets. Very likely China would just send its fighters to escort the civilian aircraft out of the ADIZ, forcing it to make a detour to avoid the zone. Japan could retaliate by sending its fighters to escort the civilian planes of ANA and Nippon. Both fighters are likely to keep a comfortable distance apart like the coast guards in Diaoyu Islands. China only needs to keep up the pressure and the two airlines will loose passengers for fear of harassment, inconvenience or an accident.
 
There is always a high risk that the Americans and the Japanese would force the issue by firing at the Chinese or at the ANA or Nippon planes and accuse the Chinese of doing it, a false flag incident for an open conflict.
 
An open conflict is unlikely as the consequences would be grave. Should it happen, as a localized war, Chinese should have some advantage with the availability of SAMs, which are much cheaper to operate and less demanding on the boys in the air or in the ships. Would the Japanese and Americans push the limits? An open war would halt all economic activities in the region and aircraft and ships could be fired on. Time for testing the equipments and a prelude to the Third World War.