Post by Concerns of a Heartland Sinkie - Part 4

As mentioned in late 2016 in MSN and (mentioned) again in early 2017, a head and shoulder trend was formed in terms of the tide of globalisation and at least a 70% chance of an unmistakable trend reversal?

1) 911 marked the "left shoulder"?

2) The 2008 GFC the "head"?

3) And Jun 2016 Brexit & Nov 2016 "Brexit+++" marked the right "shoulder"?

The current wave of globalisation that took off massively in the 1970s could be in reverse gear?

However, way back in late 2014 and again in 2015, the warning sirens of possible de-globalisation was sounded (in MSN) but noboLEE paid any heed (to it)?

As mentioned previously (& repeatedly) in 2014 to 2017 (in MSN), the last cycle of internationalisation (aka globalisation) was in even higher gear than the current but the trade wars that started in the 1890s culminated 2 decades later in the WW1 that saw Pax Britannica ceding its preeminent world policeman role and the global hegemon title was left unfilled ......, can any reader recall? (Pls KEE CHIU ...)

Subsequently, the then world order collapsed in a power vacuum and an anarchic world order ensued.

During those inter-war years (1919-1938), the global economy went into a tailspin, wall street collapsed in 1929 and precipitated the first ever global Great Depression?

The late Professor Charles Kindleberger, in his 1973 book "The World in Depression: 1929-1939", expounded his world famous theory of HST (Hegemonic Stability Theory).

The late Professor passed away in 2003 (at the ripe old age of 92) after the 2nd Gulf War broke out.

The fast recovery of Western Europe was to a large extent due to the late Professor spearheading the then Marshall Plan in the post-war reconstruction.

Many policies that the late Professor advocated that are key determinants of a stable world order are now been "thrown into the incinerator" ...?

The immutable MSN wiseman lao hero wrote in his post dated 4/03/2018: "Hundred Flowers Movement Revisited 百花运动" under the final two short but thundering concluding paragraphs:

Quote

"People who did not know history or learn from the mistakes in history would be condemned to make the same mistakes and bury themselves only to verify that history would repeat itself with their folly.

Thank you very much for a precious but painful lesson in history."

Unquote

Given China's latest retaliatory counter protectionist measures announced this afternoon, a full blown trade blows between the world's 2 top most preeminent economic powers and giants seems unavoidable UNLESS the perpetrator who started this potential full scale trade war back down ...?

In 1985, Sg's founding PM went to Capitol Hill, Washington and spoke in the joint US Congress session [see Youtube video: https://youtu.be/X6CZ3C0niPg], arguing against an oncoming trade war then between the Americans and the Japanese which culminated in the 1987 Plaza Accord and an immediate 30% revaluation of the Yen vis-a-vis the major world currencies in particular the USD but which also subsequently led to the "destruction" of the then world #2 economic powerhouse and the subsequent Japanese economic malaise since 1990 ...?

This time unlikely there will be another iconic world leading figure to thwart the US of firing the 1st trade cannon (which already happened) and more importantly there will not be a repeat of the 1987 "Plaza Accord"?

What next?