India’s superpower dream

It is natural that a country with more than 1b people and going to be the most populous nation in the world, India will aspire to be a superpower one day.  The reawakening of the Indian civilization and the realization of its potential, if every Indian could earn a per capital income half of what an average American is getting, India will be rich like hell and its GDP many times bigger than the Americans. For the time being, India knows that it is a far fetch dream to overtake the Americans. Its main target is China, to over take China in everyway, to be the Number One in Asia. No need to be bothered about overtaking Japan.

The thinking of the Indian elite and political leaders is clear and manifested in every inch of Indian literature and the Indian mass media. They talk, sleep and dream of being the Number One super power in Asia. And China is the target to beat. The Indians did not hide their ambition. They are not contented with just the Indian Ocean. Never mind if the Americans is controlling the Indian Ocean through their stronghold military fortress in Diego Garcia. Over taking the Americans and chasing them away from the Indian Ocean can wait. China is what India is looking out for.

The Indians have been playing military war games with the Americans and the Japanese, in the Indian Ocean, in the South China Sea and in the East China Sea, to show to the world that Indi has arrived and is extending its influence to the Pacific Ocean. To over take China is tough. What India could hope for is to hold back China, keep China in check, not by India of course, but to play the American and Japanese game, using the two to contain China.

In an article by a Brahma Chellaney in the Today paper on 21 Dec, taken from a Project Syndicate source, this Indian professor wrote, ‘Why China must pay a cost for its actions in South China Sea’. It took the same stance as the West, that China has no right to the islands it is claiming, calling China’s historical claim weak. And he is suggesting that the Americans and the Japanese, together with Little India, the superpower aspirants, to take on China with a big stick, to extract a price on China for developing the islands.

He totally ignores the rights of the Chinese to develop their own islands, their own land and territories. From the China’s perspective, a Chinese professor would have written, ‘Why can’t China develop its own islands in the South China Sea?’ It all depends on which side one is taking and what logic or assumption one is taking. To the Chinese, it is perfectly normal for them to develop what is in their territory, even extracting all the oil and resources from the surround sea. To those who want to have a share of these resources, they would want to challenge China’s claim and want a piece of the resources for themselves.

For India, this is a great opportunity to prod the Americans and Japanese to get into an open conflict with China, and the bystander would stand to gain when they fight. The Indian super power dream will be realized earlier if these powers ended up destroying each other over the little islands in the South China Sea.

Every player has a game plan to favour their vested interests. There is a confluence of interest in the Americans, Japanese and Indians to want to go to stir trouble with China in Chinese territory. It will be a power play and will be decided by who carries the bigger stick. And to the players and adventurers, is the stake big enough, good enough to play with fire.

China could play the same game as India. But India is too far behind to worry China. Even Japan is no issue. China’s main concern is the Americans. China will tackle the Americans in many other ways that would hurt the Americans more than wanting a war in the South China Sea. China must copy the American doctrine of fighting wars away from its shores and create trouble for the Americans away from China. The Americans are thinking that they are in control of the situation and having the upper hand. When they could not even deal with Syria, with ISIS and the Russians, they must be dreaming that they can take on China and thinking it is another cakewalk.

China is unlikely to go into war with the Americans militarily. There are many options and cards the Chinese can play.  Boosting the Russian efforts in Syria would be a good start and drag the Americans into a bigger war in the Middle East. As for ambitous India, happy dreaming. They are not a factor in the Chinese calculus for a long time to come. They are irrelevant no matter how loud they shouted.