Provoking A Rising Dragon

The American Eagle Fails to Provoke Fight with an Ascending Dragon

By MIKOspace 

Last week and for the very first time, the United States (US) sent one of its most powerful warship, the guided-missile destroyer USS Lassen, to conduct a patrol within 12 nautical miles of a collection of islands disputed by China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Phillippines, Brunei and Malaysia. The US called the mission around the disputed islands in the South China Sea "an assertion of freedom of navigation and as a means to balance power in the region".  Observers noted quickly that the USA herself is not a direct party or a party of interest over the islands per se. 

Officially, the US claimed that its first naval patrol in the area did not target China but was aimed at safeguarding the freedom of navigation on what she considered to be “international” waters. The US warship would conduct its patrol around various man-made features that China, Vietnam and the Philippines have built up in that South China Sea region.  There is however no evidence that maritime navigation or commercial shipping have been affected by the territorial claims by various countries.  As it happened, Chinese navy ships watched puzzlingly at the rather aimless manoeuvres of the US warship which lasted several hours.  It was also unclear what she had accomplished as she sailed away to return to her home port about 4,000km away at Yokosuka Naval Base in Yokosuka, Japan.  

And as the surrounding ASEAN countries watched the political show out of bemused amazement and unfunny concern, it was abundantly clear that the US’ move was designed to harass so as provoke an irritated response from the Chinese, who of course did not take the bait of a rather childish faux pas.  No one thought that the USA had any intention to launch a military clash with China over a region where she has no specific interests at stake.   Perhaps, this warship sideshow was somehow timed and planned to ease the passage for a Defense Spending Bill where the delusion of a “looming and imminent war” with China would provide the much needed boost to the US military industrial complex in the absence of their 2 highly “profitable” wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.     

The US was actually warned to stay away from Chinese territorial waters by virtue of the other islands and reefs in the Nansha Islands under her undisputed control. Neither has China broken any international laws in building structures  and land reclamation around 2 of the disputed reefs. Other countries in the dispute have already embarked on various civil constructions before the Chinese.  China's construction work in the area is completely legal and the US would grudgingly acknowledge that.  Never mind US fears that the changing geopolitical situation in the area could be changed following China's island reclamation and that China would gain the advantage for control of all the Nansha Islands and the adjacent seas.  In the event however, no US interest would be affected or harmed.   

From a regional security perspective, ASEAN countries watched with utter disbelief to behold a military superpower like the USA flexing its maritime muscles in such blatant display of irresponsible brinkmanship.  There was nothing to be gained by it and nothing was gained.  And the US also lost tremendous prestige to have her modern warship “retreating” with her flag literally between her propellers.   

Entirely of her own making, the proud American Eagle was thoroughly humiliated and routed by a smarter Ascendent Dragon who refused to play the silly and childish game of “Gotcha”.    

In stark contrast, the US did not display such “righteous” belligerence when her prestige and interests were actually challenged by the Russian Bear in March 2015 when Russia forcibly annexes the Crimea peninsula of Ukraine.  Three US Presidents, who are all alive today – Clinton, Bush and Obama, all reiterated and emphasised US power to safeguard the territorial integrity of Ukraine.  This was in support of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, a political agreement signed with Russia and the United Kingdom in Budapest, Hungary, providing security assurance guarantees for its sovereignty and territorial integrity to then newly formed Ukraine. 

Today, Crimea remained annexed to Russia. No US naval ships challenged the internationally condemned annexation by sailing into Crimean waters, nor did US warplanes fly into Ukraine airspace above Crimea.  Effectively, in spite of the words and promises of three US Presidents, the US had simply abrogated its promises and turned its back on Ukraine.  In March 2015, the American Eagle chose not to confront but to surrender without a fight to the Russian Bear over Ukraine where it had definitive interests as NATO backyard; yet, it chose to provoke but fail to arouse the Chinese Dragon in a region where it has no specific vested interests.  Such is the shameful failure of American Foreign Policy – the absence of clear interests, the ambiguity of her values and the lack of decisive leadership to act and lead where they matter.  

Americans and their leaders apparently have forgotten the words of a former arch-enemy, Japan: "I fear all we have done is awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve” said by Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto, upon learning of Japan’s successful attack that he masterminded on Pearl Harbor in December 1941 killing more than 1,400 Americans and wounding another 1,200.

Beware awaking the Ascendent Dragon and fill her with a terrible resolve.

Related:

Beware Awaking A Rising Dragon

LKY’s Timeless Advice on East Asia

APEC Without Japan