The mood in
the opposition camp is a scene of despair. What happened, why the big loss? How
could it be, all the indicators were in favour of a big swing and the PAP was
up for a good rubbing. The result was so shocking that many would have resigned
to the fate and think of giving up. It is just too big a defeat that said it is
all over.
Many
started to reflect on all the goodies thrown at the voters and blaming the
voters for turning against the opposition parties, the people fighting so hard
for their freedom and independence. What could a few pieces of meat thrown at
them compared to the lockup of their CPF savings, the unending payment for
Medishield Life, high cost of living, PMETs losing their jobs to foreigners,
being a minority, an alien in their own country and many more serious issues?
The people may be called daft but they are not that daft.
The trend
of falling popularity of the PAP was a confirmed down trend since the last GE.
And this was proven by the Presidential Election and the two by elections. The
people were turning against the PAP. They could not change their views in 9
days and with a few goodies they knew would not last. Though credit must be
given to the PAP for coming with more pro Singaporean policies, for tackling
the PMET and foreigner problems, cost of living problems, it is still to early
to see the results and whether the policy change is real and will continue
after the GE. The people cannot be so daft to throw all precautions away and
voted blindly for the PAP.
The PAP did
not win the election because they have won the hearts and minds of the people.
At best the position was a status quo and the falling trend arrested. The key
factor is the 300,000 new voters consisting of new citizens. This is the main
factor that led to the swing. See my post ‘2015 – The Mathematician won’.
Going
forward, the main question is what the PAP would do to win the voters to its
side. Would they think that this win allows them to continue with their crazy
anti Singaporean policies? Or would they take stock, thank the mathematician
for the reprieve of another 5 terms to get things right? Or would they think
that they have the right formula to win more elections by simply adding more
new citizens into the pool?
The anger
and distrust of the PAP are still there and these cannot go away unless the PAP
changes its pro foreigner policies to pro Singaporean policies. The opposition
parties must not fall into despair and chase after the ghost. There is no ghost.
The Seventh Month is over. The number game cannot continue without the heart in
the right place and looking after the Singaporean and their interests. No
political party can continue to rule the people without looking after the good
of the citizens.
It is not
the end of the game, not the end of the opposition. The PAP has been given
another chance. They know how they won this election, not because the people
were turning around to support them. They could delude themselves to think that
they have won over the people. They know jolly well that the truth is still out
there.
39 comments:
Tiok, and not being daft, the PAP know how they won this election, not because the people were turning around to support them.
And the PAP also know, and so do the opposition, that no matter who the opposition field, or how bad PAP govt is, the opposition will always lose big, if they are not as strong, or stronger and better than the PAP.
And for PAP, this is what really matters, and would not care whether real Sinkies are suffering or really supporting them.
So be ready for more overcrowded MRT and break downs and maybe soon, the next round of big minister pay rise and GST increase, OK? Sinkie opposition deserve to lose big and Sinkies deserve the govt they voted for.
"Opposition Parties should not be disheartened"
RB
Opposition Parties have good reasons to be disheartened, and 90% chances of getting disheartened, if they continue to contest future elections by not being as strong, or stronger and better than the PAP.
Sian.
Where are all my oppositions friends here? I thought we all can HUAT together and celebrate at Hougang St 41.
So sad. Wait another 4 years is a long time.
RB also cannot take out CPF at 55.
Looks like we have to wait another 4 or 5 years, after waiting for 4 years since 2011.
RB what should we do ? I am not disheartened, I m defeated in despair.
From now on, and in the eyes of 70% Sinkies, there is no place, and no place at all, for weak, one too many Opposition Parties.
If Opposition Parties seriously want to win, they should before the elections, or long before it, announce that they will contest 100% seats as one party and ready to be govt, and be a better govt than the PAP.
Only then will majority aka(updated)70% Sinkies will have no fear of accidentally voting the PAP out of govt.
I am not disheartened, I m defeated in despair.
Anon 11:53 a.m.
But why would u be in despair if u are smart?
Under PAP, smart Sinkies know how to make lots of money, u know.
So learn to be smart, and not be defeated and in despair.
We should stop pointing fingers at any one!
We should congratulate PAP for the BIG victory and move on.
From the GE results, it was 100% clear that the only sustainable
political model in Singapore that can be accepted by the masses
for the island is ONE dominant political party.
Yes! Just ONE dominant political party.
The GE results clearly showed that the masses have no appetite
for opposition parties or a coalition government.
Not pouring cold water on the opposition parties.
This was what the 70% masses want.
It was very very very clear and must be very very very painful
to the opposition parties!
Is it worth the struggles....think about it!
Best wishes.
@ rb:
>> Opposition Parties should not be disheartened <<
Exactly. What's done is done. Go back, post mortem the shit, and do better....and then next time, hire me or someone like me to implant "mind control" triggers into the sheeple's heads ;-)
Opposition Reflection (beside Luck) - Four main compass directions (plus Central)
North (NA) South (NA) East (WP retain 6, lost 1) West (SDP knock out) Central (NA)
Voter Concern - Why need so many small aimless opposition parties in Singapore?
- Hands-On Green Matters
Also check out Compass Luck in 8 directions - N NE E ES S SW W NW
- Hands-On Green Matters
Anon 12.04 pm
I am in despair because I thought I was smart. I always believe that I am smarter than the dafts.
I still think I am smart because RB tells me not to despair and people urge me to fight on. I will continue to fight on for 4 more years come 2019.
With bloggers like RB, who give me the moral support and encouragement, I will fight on.
Majority Sinkies very scared the opposition, just like WP, cannot run the Town Council if elected? And not being from the ruling party, also cannot serve them better than the PAP MPs?
But seriously, also quite true lah, tio bo?
So vote opposition for what?
Maybe majority voters, by giving PAP a bigger mandate, is thinking out of the box to make PAP improve.
Sure, u can have more opposition in Parliament to slap PAP more for PAP to improve. But this is the negative(stick)way.
A positive(carrot)way is to give PAP a bigger mandate, which can perhaps motivate (instead of slapping)PAP to improve.
So this round, between the carrot and stick approach, majority voters have chosen the carrot for PAP. Hopefully it works for the benefit of Sinkies.
Chin Leng, old friend,
You are swimming against the tide.
My advice to you? Come join the light side of the force. Forsake the dark side and you shall be enlightened--the grass is greener, the sun is brighter, and the force is stronger on this side.
It's like I always tell my junior staff. Never align yourself with losers--you are simply adding to their losing numbers. Always align yourself with winners and you too can be a winner. Some call this the law of attraction (cf. "Think and Grow Rich").
Free lesson for you, my miserable friend... :)
Anon 11.53.
Another four years with the majority still balless daft sinkies plus another grounding of new citizens, no hope lah.
The Daft singaporeans had screwed the balance screw into their coffin.
Better survey better places to settle down.
Sigh
First they said that the oppositions are not qualified candidates. Now, the most highly educated candidate coming from SDP (Prof Paul Tambya) and many doctorates, this argument died.
Then they said that the oppositions don't walk the ground. Only appear once in 5 years around GE. Now, WP, SDP, SingFirst do walk the ground. And, many pap candidates actually appear once in 5 years around GE. So this argument cannot stand.
After GE2015, many online said that the oppositions lost because they were not united.
Then they said that the oppositions should not challenge all seats to allay the fear that pap will accidentally be voted out.
Then they said that the oppositions must create a shadow government to prove to the people that they are able to take over from pap government if needed.
And so on...
By now, it is crystal clear that the oppositions did not lose because they were not good enough. They lost because the pap has weapons that they cannot match. But most of all, they lost because the people did not vote for them. Despite being sabo by poorly conceived government one-size-fit-all policies, 7 in 10 people continue to vote for pap.
So, oppositions, please take comfort in knowing that you have courageously fought an uphill battle that you had slim chance to win. You pressed on. Yes, you didn't win the election, but you won my heart and respect. Thank you for fighting, my opposition soldiers. I salute you.
General Elections are all about what the citizens want.
The assumption being that citizens are of normal intelligence.
Possessing some degree of courage and sense of justice.
Assuming this to be the case in Singapore.
Then 70% of Singaporeans have clearly indicated they want a PAP government.
70% of Singaporeans do NOT want a non-PAP government.
Alternative Parties will have to use this as a planning parameter in all their future campaigns.
70% of Singaporeans will not support a change in government.
Nothing has changed since Chiam See Tong formulated his by-election strategy for General Elections 20 years ago.
OK, tell me what benefit if Chee Soon Juan become your MP?
Can he serve you better than a PAP MP? Can SDP manage a Town Council better than even WP, let alone PAP?
And you think PAP will listen to him in Parliament, even if SDP had won all 11 seats (itself a tall order) contested?
So don't argue other things, just answer the above questions and you should know why Chee only got 33% of the votes.
Same applies to all opposition candidates, save for Hougang, and nearly lost even for Aljunied.
70% of Singaporeans do NOT want a non-PAP government.
Anon 3:47 p.m.
Not really lah, if an opposition party can show that they are ready to be govt, and be a stronger and better govt than the PAP.
And until such time this happens, it is better the opposition go harakiri than to exist to contest elections.
The number 1, key factor of PAP getting more percentage of votes is actually the accumulated impact of new citizens.
This is a firm trend factor. Though the States media editors maybe either so blur or dishonest not to mention it.
PAP through more new citizens can ensure almost permanent rule.
This maybe an intentional scheme.
Demographics and new citizen voter patterns are firm and almost fixed and difficult to change.
Assumptions (these are guess-estimates within limitations):
1. Every year there is an estimated additional net 15,000 Singaporean born voters, from about 33,000 coming of age at 21 years old less about 18,000 of Singaporeans who died.
2. Every year since Year 2000 there is an additional increase of about 18,000 new citizens.
3. At start Year 2000, there is a total of 100,000 accumulated new citizens from all previous years added.
Let’s examine the figures:
Year Locals New citizens Accumulated Total voters New citizen %
2000 2,000,000 18,000 118,000 2,118,000 5.85%
2001 2,015,000 18,000 136,000 2,151,000 6.33%
2002 2,030,000 18,000 154,000 2,184,000 7.06%
2003 2,045,000 18,000 172,000 2,217,000 7.76%
2004 2,060,000 18,000 190,000 2,250,000 8.45%
2005 2,075,000 18,000 208,000 2,283,000 9.11%
2006 2,090,000 18,000 226,000 2,316,000 9.76%
2007 2,105,000 18,000 244,000 2,349,000 10.39%
2008 2,120,000 18,000 262,000 2,382,000 11.00%
2009 2,135,000 18,000 280,000 2,415,000 11.60%
2010 2,150,000 18,000 298,000 2,448,000 12.18%
2011 2,165,000 18,000 316,000 2,481,000 12.74%
2012 2,180,000 18,000 334,000 2,514,000 13.29%
2013 2,195,000 18,000 352,000 2,547,000 13.82%
2014 2,210,000 18,000 370,000 2,580,000 14.35%
2015 2,225,000 18,000 388,000 2,613,000 14.85%
2016 2,240,000 18,000 406,000 2,646,000 15.35%
Implications:
1. Almost all new voters are from 3rd world countries and will vote the PAP. India Indians view Singapore as the best Indian city in the world. While Chinese PRC loves Singapore. Those who are given citizenships received a huge upgrade from their 3rd world homes. They are naturally grateful to the PAP government. As the PAP government has made it clear, it values them sometimes even more than local Singaporeans.
2. By 2015, close to 14.85% of voting population are new citizen voters. In 2020 near 20% if current trend continues.
3. By 2015, swing against PAP from local born voters need to be 15% just to maintained status quo as per year 2000. What an almost sure win for PAP even if local Singaporeans are extremely unhappy with its policies.
4. Dissatisfaction among local born voters are increasing but their percentage and importance are decreasing. This trend will get clearer and stronger.
Local Singaporean voters voting power is steadily eroded by new citizen voters.
5. PAP can almost ensure permanent rule as new citizens vote overwhelmingly for them. This should be the case as the gap between the original home countries and Singapore is just too wide.
This 6.9mln and then 10mln population plan is intact.
Demographics and new citizen voter voting patterns are more or less fixed.
Conclusion: Indeed local born Singaporean voters have been gradually voting against the PAP but their voting swing has been more than offset by new citizen voters. Even with the reported so-called 9% swing from 2011 to 2015. As in 2011 only half of the seats were contested. In 2011 strong seats of PAP were not contested. Therefore the 60.1% vote for PAP was not representative of the whole of Singapore. If they were contested the percentage maybe more like 65%.
As such the net swing in reality in favor of the PAP is likely about 4% to 5% on a nationwide basis in 2015.
And this swing can almost all be attributed to the increase of new citizens, mathematically.
I hope the ruling PAP government will truly be kind to its citizens especially the poor, needy, sick, aged and those who are not so competitive.
The PAP is going to rule Singapore for a long time based on my limited understanding. Take care Singaporeans. May the God's blessed peace be upon those who speak for the weak and voiceless.
There is no proof that new citizens will vote PAP lah... you think new citizens cannot think??? Do you think new citizens like overcrowding, competing for jobs, competing for school places for their kids, high cost of everything???
You think new citizens are brainless?
Really people? Stop beating the straw man lah...
Landslide?
Landslides are only caused by either earthquakes or heavy rainfall. Funnily, the past couple of weeks were rainless and we have never had an earthquake since time immemorial, even before we became a fishing village.
Oh yes, I forgot, the landslide must have been caused by the excessive amount of pork thrown from barrels by someone. They also promised more after the election.
I hope the pork throwing can continue forever. No wonder some people wanted GEs every year, if possible.
But then, who is going to pay for all the barrels of pork I wonder? Just let me think about it.
And the voters will want more and more, like sharks smelling blood. And the leaders will continue to give more and more, from the right hand. And they will take back more and more with the left hand. The daft Sinkies will never know, anyway. Now, where are we going, I wonder?
I refer to this facebook account
https://www.facebook.com/Cuties.kalyani
I think many of you know her. Shes one of those who was charged for the Hong Lim Park "heckling" incident. Shes anti-PAP, every single one of her postings is against PAP.
But look at her post on September 11, 11:18pm. I will paste it here:
"Congratulation..to my mp:Mr Ang wei neng...i am happy that i can see you again in future...I didn't vote sing 1st party...i didn't vote against you...You be my mp continouely!!!I already guess Jurong grc will be remain to pap..Congratulation to Tharman Shanmugaratnam minister...On his leading..opposition party is very difficult to win...i also like mr tharman shanmugaratnam...He can be the next prime minister of sg!!!!"
If a Hong Lim Park activist, even come to the ballot box, still does not vote against PAP, I don't know what you people here are making noise about. Expect people to vote for her against the PAP but she herself did not. "Happy" to have Jurong GRC be under PAP hands.
With this type of people in your ranks, you "vocal" minority can really close shop. Don't even need to talk about the daft Singaporeans, PAP IBs, or new citizens.
@ September 13, 2015 4:12 p.m.
"OK, tell me what benefit if Chee Soon Juan become your MP?"
ANSWER:
At least we will have a voice in parliament speaking out against the PAP laws that discriminate against single mothers and the innocent child.
The discrimination in terms of HDB housing and Baby bonus.
PAP laws discriminate against the child, but still expects the boy child to serve NS.
"Can he serve you better than a PAP MP?"
- that's for the voters to decide
"Can SDP manage a Town Council better than even WP, let alone PAP?"
- that's for the voters to decide
"And you think PAP will listen to him in Parliament ... "
- who cares if PAP listens?
- the issue is a voice in parliament for those who are not represented
- the audience is for any Singaporean who is willing to listen
- again, who cares if PAP listens?
With traitors like you, Singapore is doomed
@ September 13, 2015 4:12 p.m.
OK. Now you tell me how do Singaporeans benefit now that Charles Chong is the MP instead of WP's Lee Li Lian? at Puggol East SMC?
Charles Chong
6 term veteran PAP MP
Will likely retire after 4 years.
- how is this leadership renewal?
- versus Li Lian who is in her prime working years
Charles Chong will likely go on to take up directorships in PAP linked companies.
- do you think Charles Chong will ask many questions in parliament in the coming four years
- or will he be a quiet, nodding parrot in parliament
- agreeing with all the PAP Ministers
Versus
Li Lian who has a track record of raising questions in parliament
and an exemplary parliamentary attendance record
How many PAP MPs in parliament do we need?
How many nodding parrots do we need?
They all say the same thing.
You listen to one PAP MP, you've heard them all.
That's why PAP political rallies are so poorly attended.
Nothing new to say.
Might as well stay at home and read LKY's book HARD TRUTHS.
Get despair. Try migrating. It will open up a world full of excitement. The world is much bigger than an island. Why waste it on an island when one can live in a continent?
HHHHhHAAAAHHHHHAAAAa
70 over percentage in so many GRCs and SMCs and some nearly 80%!!!!!
Can you believe that this is possible? This is real?????
I think the PAP leaders too did not believe the results but have to put on a show of great joy.
Hahahahhahahahahahhahhh 70 plus percent wins, 80% wins.....!!!!!!
Where is Patriot my friend ? Patriot always support the oppositions.
Where are you Patriot just when I needed you MOST at this hour of despair ?
I want, I want, I want to fight on. I want to fight to save Singaporeans.
At least I still have RB. Write more articles RB !
Here is an example of a PAP Minister with FOUR nodding parrots (PAP MPs) in parliament.
Anon 9:38 p.m.
What's wrong with nodding parrots if they can win elections? If you contest, you can win election or not?
Redbean is spot on! SGporeans "courageous" votes & Opposition "brilliant & dignified" effort got "screwed" by current "system" & "regime" by "Kelong, redrawn boundaries, electoral fraud, parachuting in thousands of new IC & new citizen "thank-U-votes":( Wake Up! Can't blame fellow Citizens & Fearless Opposition for fighting a "loosing battle":(
This result is what I have foresee so nothing unusual or surprising to me.Hinting earlier about 7 out of 10 mei meis will trust me for honesty and integrity is a reminder to those who harbour high hope , not to be too confident so that they will not be disheartened or disappointed when result is out.
Many still cannot get the actual picture on why is the result such.This include those who commented on the possible cause after the result is announced.
Nevertheless I salute those who contribute on stage and in blogs not forgetting RB here for a better Singapore.
The intention is good but have to face the facts.
Do not be disheartened.
Let's move on.
Imagine the following
BASKET AA
1) new citizens 400,000
2) pioneer generation 450,000 got new carrot
3) teachers 50,000 got new varrot
4) SAF 50,000 higher paying over market rate
Basket AA=1.05 million
BASKET BB
Overseas citizens 300,000
Of these 250,000 did not vote
BASKET CC
= Total voters - AA - BB
= 2.45 million - 1.05 million - 250,000
= 1,150,000
Assuming only 35% in basket CC support PAP
Then 65% of Basket CC supported oppositions
=747,500 supported oppositions
757,500÷2,450,000
=30.5% supported oppositions
Hence 69.5% supported PAP
Oppositions is left with the bones to pick!!
@ go back and learn your maths again FAIL 625:
Your mother cheebye logic lah
>> BASKET AA
1) new citizens 400,000
2) pioneer generation 450,000 got new carrot
3) teachers 50,000 got new varrot
4) SAF 50,000 higher paying over market rate
Basket AA=1.05 million <<
HOW DO YOU KNOW all of them voted PAP. Kanninah 50,000 NS men voted PAP? Are you sure??? I'm sure there are many who BANG BALLS and fed up with PAP because they're FORCED to do NS
Motherfucker, you FAIL!
He is very proud of his mother cockle's smell and wants everyone to know what it smells like. His mouth and whole body ooze his mother cockle's smell.
Otak udang!
Dear twisted and foul-mouthed fans,
Eh, you sad, sad cunts... relac lah. Why so lidat? F1 coming this weekend. Got Bon Jovi, Pharrell Williams, plus more...motherfuckers, this is what I've always been talking about:
SINGAPORE IS AWESOME, AND IT ROCKS!!
So get rid of your long horse faces lah, and ENJOY yourselves!
If you feel bad, you have only yourself to blame lah.
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