No, this time it is not that the ground is sweet. It is very sour. Then
why pushing for an early election when there are two more years to sit
in comfort and drawing the comforting salaries plus bonuses? Well in two
years time the situation would not be sour but fermented. Externally
there is a bigger financial crisis waiting to explode leading to the
break down of the whole banking and financial system and money would be
worthless in a way. This would lead to an economic crisis leading to job
losses worldwide and our housing market would simply collapse and
people with huge mortgages got no where to run. But this is only a small
factor in the consideration as it may or may not happen, or may happen
much later.
What is more imminent is the threat of a split in PAP. As long as He is
around the split would not happen. When He is not around, you can bet
your last dollar it will happen. And when it happens, it will be the end
of the party. Pardon my pun.
It is better to take a small bit, cut some losses and still be in power
for another 5 years than to lose everything in two years’ time. This is
the only major consideration in the game.
In the last GE, both MM and SM stood down and become ordinary MPs. The
next GE, if it happens this year, will mean that both will not stand.
The alternative, if the GE is held in 2016, there is a likelihood that
Chok Tong may want to stand. He is still very young if we take 90 as the
reference point. Chok Tong has another good 20 years to go. And if the
Party is not going to field him, then a split is imminent given his
support base and the number of MPs willing to follow his leadership.
Now, that would be a nightmare surely.
So, would it be 2014 or 2016?
24 comments:
I think the next GE is very likely to be in 2015 after celebrating the 50th anniversary/national day, grand opening of the new sport hub and SEA games. The all round feel-good festive atmosphere can help the ruling party.
Oct and Nov 2015 may be possible months.
Just my guess. What say U?
no need election lah. if ground too sour or fermented or even busok like rotten egg, pinky loong will declare martial law, useless parliament will close shop, pinky will be made dictator for life and all kpkb blogs will be shut down. at the most 400 people will protest at hong lim park. all arrested, 50 put in isa detention. that will shut everyone up. you think that's bad? wait till pinky kicks the bucket and his wife takes over as empress dowager. she will make all sinkies shave front half of our heads and grow pigtails. weak-kneed lembek sinkies all will comply one, don't worry.
Ha ha ha
Depends on what 他妈 will say who gets what how much by when ......
Mid joint means unlikely, whole chicken wing means mb, drums or half chicken means 90% but also depends on which part of what ....... drums of a spring chicken actually may be smaller than mid joint of a big turkey ..........
So will they for once take back small mid joint gives back whole drums of turkey ........ possibly yes. Why?
Fares increase little bit aka chicken backsides but gives drums akan datang 他妈 tell pple ......
If happen likely in may or june.
Co drivers turned holiday coach passengers still eating wind, engross in football, sumptuous food, happy life may have lost the spirit and readiness ...... so timing good, other oppo would be scrambling to crank their long unused machinery engine so boils down to voters protest votes but sinkies many still very nostalgic and grateful for LKY work so majority likely will give incumbent their support so many close fight still go to incumbent.
Oppo likely to make breakthrough is Jeanette. The rest likely create a lot of excitment like soccer match but in the end balik kampung ......
Those old old uncles especially credentials not good but already try many times cmi one better make way for new blood at least give them exposure and experience for future .....
Likely score, with new expansion of 8 more seats 8 vs 87, another landslide but vote reduce 5%.
Look forward to 2019 .......
Move on with life .........
PM hoping his father will die before next GE deadline. Once old man die, there'll be a few weeks of North Korean style engineered mass hysteria, then call for general election. Sympathy votes mah!
"What is more imminent is the threat of a split in PAP."
RB
Please lah, all in PAP are making and having lots of money, so why would they want to split? What's their motivation to split, you tell me lah?
Ego, pride, dignity and face.
What's their motivation to split, you tell me lah?
Anon 11:15 am
Tiok, there is absolutely no motivation to split.
Only opposition parties will split, due to money no enough and other reasons. A couple of cases already, tio bo?
PAP split? Never.
The folks in the PAP might habour differences of opinion between themselves, but I seriously doubt there'll be a 'split' in the party to the point where 'factions' might break off.
This is Singapore lah...for the most part the folks in the PAP march to the same drum. I was talking to one of the "new guys", they are even more hard core than the present batch. Much more open, much more "free market" oriented, and have mo tuck teng attitude.
If they call election this year, PAP will win and wipe the floor with anyone foolish enough to challenge them -- as all who are supposedly in "opposition" are not even organised enough to even organise a kopi tiam makan session lah.
If the PAP goes to ballots in 2016 --it's too far away to tell...anything can happen before then.
Hyena Pack splitting? Unlikely.
Martial Rule? Unlikely.
Call for early (earlier) election? Good chances of it happening. And the Incumbent s may even engineer for a big defeat.
Developments, locally and globally likely to get worse. The Domestic problems created by the Regime for the Last few decades are now beyond solution. But, they have made much to live life of plenty here or anywhere. Some or most will want to live their Swiss Standard of Living in Switzerland. Others will want safety far away from the angered locals. Others will want less crowded, serene and cool scenic place to live in luxuries.
The most important of all is to be far away from the problems they have caused and created. So, the Next GE maybe held not for a victory BUT a landslide defeat.
patriot
Engineering a big defeat to run away. Possible man.
The party broke apart once to give you Barisan Socialis. Why not a second time? First time on ideology. This time on personality when so many think they are much better than the PM and no longer respect him as a leader.
the recent riots has probably wiped out about 2% of the popular votes
also as ten of thousands Sporeans start to realise that their money is increasing stuck
in cpf whilst billions being transfered to finance ministry annually , when they reach their retirement age, than the reality of being unable of withdraw their blood and sweat money start to impact them greatly in the way the votes
@ 1.15pm
Ha ha ha .......
Unlikely lah
Those from that era and now are two different "species" ........
In the fifties and sixties, it was more like "狡兔死,走狗烹。高鸟尽,良弓藏。敌国灭,某臣亡。"
Now, all are hand-picked paper generals, 听话scholars, over paid academically good but not the best yes man elites .......
In GE 2011, people like 老鸡母 were "begging" not to be retired or side lined.
For the rest, personality clashed ........ ?
Ha ha ha .......
Many are probably already emasculated long ago but also possibly compensated in return with piles of remunerations, cushy jobs, etc etc ........
For any to lead a rebel from inside, likely life is too good compared to the risks ......
Anyway, many are likely long ago "declawed" to post any potential threat .......
Comparing now with the Party in the 50s and 60s is probably a bit too imaginative, hopeful and even wishful thinking.
There are factions and differences existing. But to have a fallout openly and acrimonious parting of ways are unlikely given the likely risks and benefits. In the first instance, any personality possible of that is highly impossible to remain in such company for such a long time.
To speculate that such is likely to occur verges on "over regard for their ........ ".
I also agree its possible to hold early elections. Without Him around, that useless one will be cast aside and be totally helpless. He must know that he cannot be there forever
Who else is left with claws?
Early election is highly probable b4 2016. crucial factors include whether the 2 aging former pms are running, economic growth GDP how many % in the months ahead, how well or badly they manage public sentiments on cpf minimal sums, 6.9m foreigner population + NS policy.Transport and medical also quite bad.
@ 2.13pm : /// Transport and medical also quite bad. ///
Ha ha ha .......
You mean hospital beds shortage/ crunch ...... ?
Ha ha ha ........
Kee Chiu already outlined better communication and coordination within the vast administration.
Off hand, beside temporary DIY hospital tentage to house hospital beds, Kee Chiu with his "new mission" can suggest inter-ministry problem solving such as "bringing on board Mr Cow" to sell him the idea to convert temporarily and partially the under utilised and possibly white elephant dome in marina into a couple hundred additional hospital beds in sinkieland. But before kee chiu propose that, he need to seek an audience with the previous horse surname fella in charge that they are doing it out of acute shortage and urgency and not intended as a big public "slap" on his "horse face" for such wasteful and frivoulous spending. The budget could have been used to build 2 other hospitals in 2008/ 2009 when he was in charge instead of splurging to house temperate countries exotic plants and flowers and not acutely sick sinkies. Actually, when this fella visited beijing with WKS and hosted by then Chinese vice-premier Wang Qi Shan some years back and they took the bullet train to tianjin, one could notice the pulpable sneer, disdain and disrespect of the then Chinese vice-premier towards this shortie horse surname guy. PM Lee probably made the right decision to drop him after GE 2011. As the Chinese saying goes, "骄兵必败". Complacency knows no bound. Another big screw up was of course the acute housing shortages and spiralling prices which Mr Cow is still cleaning up the shit though Mr Gan is also now cleaning the shit left behind in MOH such as this hospital bed acute shortage and severe crunch. But nevertheless they are more than well compensated to clean shit so life goes on .......
Back to the idea of partial conversion of GBB to free up some space for acutely and fatally sick patients instead of exotic plants, actually whole sinkieland if not whole world already know it is a white elephant type of project so not too late to just do the necessary and release a much needed supply of a few hundred additional hospital beds than being occupied by plants which still incur so much tax payers dollars to maintain everyday, every week, every month, every year, every decade. If plants die still need send aircraft fly in from faraway overseas countries to replace? Got make any horse sense or not, Mr Cow? No worries, sinkies won't point finger at you cos they are smart enough to know it was not your project in the first place. You are just helping to clean shit. You have kee chiu once for the mnd job. Why not kee chiu one more time and even work with the Churchill style Kee Chiu on this potentially lives saving project. Likely voters would thank you with a big resounding victory in next GE for helping sinkieland clear some shit left behind ........Makes sense? Sounds good?
Hope Kee Chiu and Mr Cow is tuning in .......
*Typo spelling should be "palpable"
Anon 2.57pm
So easy to ask ESM to step down meh? Only one man strong enough to do so.
Is this a hint that the HE is nearing his end? I guess not, since there is a saying that only the good die young.
The old lee looks like a 僵尸 at the recent russia award ceremony. I think that he cannot even stand. Maybe he survives by sucking blood all day long and thats why we need so many young blood from third world countries.
The next GE will be held in July 2014.
Nearing the quarter finals of the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil.
All attention of the last sixteen. Also got internet tele-betting by SINPOOLS.
Free telecast for everyone as sponsored by the PAP Govt.
GST Credits of S$1000.00 each for football betting.
Results only lost one SMC in Hougang. Balance won by the PAP.
Wanna to bet????
Unlikely. If 2014 then why they still dare to increase the bus fare?
Possible for early election. I guess HE knows Newton & Melvin is calling him down, so better secure another 5 years for his CMI son. See the way they are blowing trumpet about COV coming down, buying more trains & buses to cut waiting time.......but as they are trying to solve some problems,more & more screw-ups happen in other areas....karma catching up with HIM
We will know the moment their propaganda machinery starts cranking.
wiki 'Propaganda statements may be partly false and partly true. Propaganda is usually repeated and dispersed over a wide variety of media in order to create the chosen result in audience attitudes.
Propaganda is a form of communication aimed towards influencing the attitude of the community toward some cause or position by presenting only one side of an argument. '
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