2/05/2013
How can there be a worst case scenario of 6.9m?
Our current population is 5.3m. How can this population shoot to 6.9m? The local population of 3.3m is unlikely to double by 2030. At less than 2.1% fertility rate, or 1.2%, the local population can hardly replace itself and likely to be not more than 4m. So where is the 2.9m coming from? It must be from immigration, the new citizens, the PRs, the E pass holders etc.
Only by import can the population grow to 6.9m. Now who controls the import of foreigners to add to the population? Every foreigner coming into the country must be approved by the Govt. The only reason for foreigners to increase sharply is by sheer design, by the Govt approving it. Thus a worst case scenario is either caused by the Govt blindly approving the influx or sleeping on the job. The foreign composition of our population cannot increase without the Govt’s approval or consent.
That is why I say that there cannot be a worst case scenario. If the govt has capped the population at 6m or whatever, it is in full control to turn off the tap of immigration. What is this talk about a worst case scenario? It is an unnecessary preoccupation or concern.
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37 comments:
See, I told you the WP will Disagree, because they are the opposition.
And propose something slightly lesser than the PAP one, at 5.9 m.
Still a increase. So they agree there is a need to increase from present. At the same time, propose a lower GDP growth of 2% than the PAP one.
So, what do you think ?
Huat Ah , Huat Ah. Vote for WP !
Huat Ah!
Hi rb,
Pardon for being crude.
Some say the White Paper is only good as toilet paper. I thought it was issued to cover their backsides. Now, I think it would be useful to stuff it into their mouths. Of course, they are trying to shove it down our throats, as intended.
faber
faber,
shove it back to their throats and vote for WP!
WP's one is better than PAP's one. What other choice you have ?
Hi faber, you are so polite: )
In the White Paper they even have numbers to get to 6.9m with intake of foreigners to the sum of something like 19,000 or more annually. I couldn't remember the exact number. But they know how to get there. Not by accident or a worst case scenario.
It getting boring redbean.
Whatever Apple invent, we just copy. Don't copy wholesale, just copy 80% of it and we sell it.
People will buy it.
Redbean
We don't need to go into the details. Let PAP do all the number crunching.
Whatever they propose, we disagree.
Then we take their numbers and cut it by 20 or 30% and say this is our proposal.
Simple as that.
Telok Blangah
Hi Telok Blangah, welcome to the blog.
The seriousness of this White Paper cannot be simply ignored. By accepting a 20 to 30% discount is as good as giving them what they want. The mark up is only a mark up. One really does not know how big is the mark up, like HDB prices and hospital charges etc etc.
We all are outsiders so we don't know. Insiders are WP so they have a better idea, because they interact with policy makers and MIWs. And if WP, which coincidentally is my hero, proposes 14% discount from PAP numbers, who am I to disagree ? They must have a basis for arriving at those numbers, otherwise it is like a fish market.
Telok Blangah
Folks
You better expect a number a lot bigger than 6.9 million.
Why?
6.9 million is PAP's worse case scenario.
From PAP's point of view.
Their best case scenario may be 15 million.
Why best case?
Because their salaries and votes are tied to more immigrants.
Anyhow. Let's double confirm our children's future and vote Opposition in GE 2016.
If you want to double confirm your children's future, best is migrate them to Australia where the pace of life is slower and economy is vibrant. The houses there are a lot cheaper, health care is heavily subsidised. Or even our Asian neighbours are better, cost of living is lower and health care as good as Singapore.
From what I see, Opposition here don't really deviate much from PAP. Our strongest Opposition also counter propose 5.9 m people, so what does that leave you ?
Telok Blangah
If the land is big, there will never be such a problem. Housing, medical costs, population squeeze, stress, etc.
Other countries are always in awe of Singapore's efficiency, (no thanks to PAP), probably they do welcome sinkies who want to migrate there with million dollars in tow (from selling their HDB) with open hands.
Hi Telok Blangah, everyone has a view and a comfort zone. Some may find 5m, 6m or 7m comfortable.
My gut feel, not scientific, is to cap the population at 5.5m. Going further would only make cost of living higher and people getting more squeezed. All resources and services will be squeezed with greater demand. It is not really a good thing in my view.
Red bean, what else can I say except knn to them lor as very very fed up
Redbean,
PAP make a very serious mistake of not starting with 20 millions population target, and then opp party can then trim to 10 millions, a discount of 50% which the Shitty party can then put as front headline in ShittyTimes that the PAP is full of love and compassion and listening to the people.
Redbean,
what do you think ?
What do I think? Knn lor
WP propose to increase population
to increase to 5.9 mil instead of 6
.5 mil. Brilliant! Vote WP in 2016.
Agrees with this suspicion that the actual figure could be a lot more. How are we to know?
It is definitely not an exaggeration or imagination that one gets to see and meet more foreign looking people everywhere one goes in Sin now. Their attires, languages(accents) and behaviors are apparently different with locals.
Whether foreigners are indeed here to help the locals live better as claimed by the Rulers, Singaporeans will never get to feel it.
Property prices, foods, utilities, transportaton and healthcare costs are riising. ON TOP OF THESE., QUEUES ARE GETTING LONGER AND EVERYWHERE IS CRAM AND JAM.
What quality of life are the MIWs talking about? Just because they get everything in their ivory towers and get VVIP Treatments and collect millions in annual remunerations does not mean that they can say thing anyhow.
So, please no cow and bull shits.
I am feeling so comforted listening to minister after minister saying that they are doing all these for the good of Singaporeans. And my quality of life will be better in 2030.
I am falling in love with this govt. Kiss, kiss.
We should annex Johor. Ask the Malaysians how much it would cost to rent the state long-term. Cheaper surely than re-constructing the island. Don't need to worry about sand either.
There'll be Lots of place to grow our own food, and we will have access to pure water, not the stuff made from pee or sea water.
There'll also be enough space to dispose of all all the waste generated by 7m (knowing the PAP, probably a helluva lot more).
This is working on the premise that we need 7m.
The WP is far too accommodating. It is also not attacking the Premises on which this call for more people rests. Why do we need more people for what is basically a short period of time for the ageing baby boomer generation? Pple are not producing the same numbers now because huge crowds are BAD for pple, the world, and unsustainable! The baby boomer period was a one-off. Get used to it!!
Surely there are many other ways to get over this speed hump? The usual way is to Slow Down! Another is to strengthen the knees so you can walk over it yourself. There is no need to hire people to Carry you over! How lazy, spoilt and populist can you get?
Anon 2:28, my feeling is different. I am terribly worried when they said it is for my own good. I am wetting my pants.
"We should annex Johor" - rent from them? you think the gahmen so dumb? they will make use of those brainwashed NSmen to take over the land and then make it theirs. just like the way they made use of the police and took over all the land from local when they became government.
They can conveniently start a war with M with 7m people. If they can own half of west m, it will be enough to feed the 7m. M gov should be the one getting wary not sinkies.
It has been Ah Kong ambition for a long long time to get his hands on M. I am convinced that he has drawn up all the plans leading to the accomplishment of this even when he is gone.
If you look at the population growth in southern west malaysia, the 7m may be for security reasons. It is either they threatened us or we threatened them.
WP should have countered with "Why 3.9M pop is better for SG and give some examples from countries with low pop yet with high standard of living and GDP."
If PAP were to have a White Paper on 3.9M pop instead of 6.9M, they would like win by a landslide in 2016!
What say you, Red Bean?
7pm if you shrink the population the property, retail and banking sectors will collapse and the economy will be tanked. Now did die can not shrink but knn can also not increase if not future die standing lor
The Rulers certainly must have calibrated and deliberated every policy in the past.
They cannot have implemented past policies haphazardly right? And they are going to calibrate everything in every policy now it seems, but why did the Prime Minister admits that they, the Folks In White lacked foresight that caused the many problems besetting the people? Will the New Calibrations be claimed to be due to short sight in time to come? Calibrating everything but weigh nothing in the process and not anticipating any likely and possible consequence?
Singaporeans must indeed weigh the Consequence of bearing with the Rulers beyond 2015/16. It is time to assess their competency and reliability and where they are leading us to. Now that living is getting more challenging by the day, Singaporeans simply cannot afford not to act in order that our children and succeeding generations will not have to suffer.
patriot
Singapore
patriot everyday you talk cock I don't understand. vote for who ? it is either pap or wp. WP also copy pap what, but discount 16%, it is not going to change much on the ground. patriot I think since you have no confidence and I think pap and wp are going to be around for some time, you better plan for something for the future. your English is not bad though, but your deductions and conclusions are not so good.
Dear Anon 10:32 pm:
Thank You for reading me everyday and much appreciation for the assessment on my English Language Competency.
Your response warms me and will motivate me to put more effort in Blogoland. Here ie where me get free mentoring, finds my idols, gets to enjoy some comical jibes and most importantly to learn from more enlightened folks. You maybe one such calibre.
It is always a great pleasure to have interaction and me am very happy to have it from You. Hope to have your good company again.
patriot
Tattler's latest
[Dynamic Population For A Sustainable Singapore]
"It was definitely a home run for MP Sylvia Lim. Straight off the bat, she took the words right out of our mouths when she reminded the House, 'It is not just about population. It is about nationhood, the meaning of being S'porean, how we want to face the future as a country. It is about reclaiming back S'pore.'
Isn't it nice to have our heart felt thoughts articulated in parliament for a change?"
http://singaporedesk.blogspot.sg/2013/02/dynamic-population-for-sustainable.html
STForum
[S'pore: Home or hotel? Country or city?]
"What should our children live for and fight for in S'pore? How is S'pore home to them and not merely a 5-star hotel?
Should they merely check in when the hotel is thriving and check out when it is not? Or is it a home they seek to build for both good and bad times?
A home where they can live, laugh, love, grow old in, die for and die in - a country.
Walter Lee"
http://www.straitstimes.com/premium/forum-letters/story/spore-home-or-hotel-country-or-city-20130206
Voices, TODAYonline
[Look into special needs for 2030, too]
"Although the Govt has assured us that it is planning ahead for a projected population increase of up to 6.9 million in 2030, one wonders how the infrastructure in our small country will develop over time to cope with the challenges ahead.
The issue closest to my heart is the probable increase in the prevalence of disability or special needs, in tandem with the growth of our population.
From Noel Chia Kok Hwee"
http://www.todayonline.com/voices/look-special-needs-2030-too
Andrew Loh's latest
[Welfare of children as political football]
"When the welfare of our children is so callously subject to the whims and fancies of politicians and political parties, it is hard to believe the affirmation these politicians make about how parenthood is central to the S'porean core.
It was thought that the ruling party had left behind its discriminatory practices of the past, of using sticks and carrots, of using threats of withdrawal of services from opposition wards. One would have thought that the recent fiasco over the AIM saga has taught the PAP a valuable lesson.
Apparently not."
http://andrewlohhp.wordpress.com/2013/02/05/welfare-of-children-as-political-football/
STFORUM Online
[Conduct social audit to reassure S'poreans]
"WITH the projected 6.9 million population for S'pore by 2030, we need a comprehensive social audit to assure S'poreans...
help them understand what social impact past population increases had on them, and what are the likely implications of the projected 6.9 million population.
Ng Kok Keong"
http://www.straitstimes.com/premium/forum-letters/story/conduct-social-audit-reassure-sporeans-20130206
FeedMeToTheFish's latest
[11 Days to "Say No to 6.9M"]
"The debate is on the 'papulation paper' put forth by PAP. Instead of defending PAP's proposal with sound reasoning, it sends its attack dogs to terrorise an 'alternative proposal' that will never see the light of day.
Now, 10 days to 'Say No to 6.9M in 2030' at Hong Lim Park, 16 Feb 2013 at 4.30pm"
http://feedmetothefish.blogspot.sg/2013/02/11-days-to-say-no-to-69m-in-2030.html
The worst case scenario is the fear-driven and fear-mongering Singaporeans shooting themselves and their children's future in the foot.
If the infrastructure is upgraded, Singapore can sustain up to around 9 million souls. To increase to 15 million, even more radical changes have to be made and will involve some very very serious engineering.
Best policy: open the borders and let the free market for labour, services, products and capital do the job.
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