9/06/2012
Japan pushing the limits of China’s tolerance
The Japanese govt is pushing ahead with its farce buying of Diaoyu Island from another Japanese whose fictitious claim to ownership of the island must the height of Japanese trickery. They did this kind of shit over and over again during Imperial Japan to bully a decadent and weak China. It is trying to do the same today to a China that could give them a bloody nose any time.
Japan is forcing the hands of Beijing and the latter has no choice but to respond robustly or it would lose its credibility in the eyes of its citizens and would also encourage adventurism in South China Sea. China would now have to mount a military force to protect its island, like it or not. This could lead to a military confrontation that China has chosen not to oblige for a long time.
The world, the Asean countries and the US are watching how China would respond to this aggressive act against its territories. Backing out and allowing the Japanese to continue in its heady encroachment of its islands is a no option.
Japan has made the first offensive move. The ball is now in Beijing’s court.
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20 comments:
China must now send their troops in and occupy diaoyutai. Time to stand up and claim back their territory, including Okinawa and the ryukyu islands!
I think this time Japan may be playing with fire. China's social tension is now unprecedented. Communist party may start a localised war in Diaoyutai against Japan to save its own ass.
If we look like air superiority , Japan has 300 4th generation fights and PRC has 500. Although I am unclear of PRC AWACS capability, if PRC manage to get secret technology transfer of Phalcon from Israel, then Japanese airforce would see itself wipe-out. (Remember PRC nearly bought a Phalcon in 2001)
Again if USA intervene and throw in F-22 from Yokosuka or 3rd Fleet, I believe Japan will win, unless China decide to use more controversial weapon--such as Moskit.
The status of Diaoyutai depends on the stance of USA. PRC airforce would need at least 10 years catch up and deploy J20 before it can neuter USA.
Hi Sanchi Lauhu, welcome to the blog. The Americans and its proxies are working very closely together to provoke China to pick up the glove. They are throwing down the gauntlets every where.
If China picks it up, they will scream to the world that China is hostile and using force. If China refuses, they will eat into China's territories and do as they pleased.
Air battle is not solely just fighters against fighters, or air to air missiles vs missiles. If the fighters is within range of SAM, it is a cheaper option to bring them down. As a defending country, the Chinese would have ground equipment to throw at the attackers. So it will be ground, air and sea against the attackers from the air.
When hostility is declared, China will declare the East China Sea a war zone and imposed no flying zones out to 3000km. Any aircraft ship in the zone will be shot.
The Chinese strategy of air and naval defence is to deny the enemy air space in its surrounding seas. The DongFang land to sea missiles will keep the American ships 3000km out at sea. Attempting to fly from Okinawa or other land bases in Korea or Japan will put these air bases at risk of missile and air strikes.
There will be limited warfare for a start. Once it escalates, every city in Japan and South Korea, if the latter gets involved, will be free targets.
If China can keep the 7th Fleet out at sea, then the battle is secured. Japan would not dare to fight an all out war with China as it has no room for manouvre once the bombs fall down from the sky.
If China decided to use Dongfeng, DH series or the less powerful type like Moskit against carrier, it would provoke a major conflict with USA, if USA really have the determination to cover Japan. USA has its own inventories of missiles as well.
My stance is, the outcome of war with Japan depends on US will to support its ally, as well as PRC determination in defending its sovereignity. If US do not have the will to intervene on behalf of Japan, it will see Japan and Korea falling back to China's fold, as it is the traditional order of east asia.
For a limited air war, I believe Japan/USA still have 60% chance of winning. If Japan goes alone, PRC would have 60% chance of winning, unless USA is willing to transfer F22 to Japan now.
As much as I wanted to see that the conflict does not escalate to war, look like there is really no choice. If china step back, Vietnam and philippines would be next to move and china would lost all the territories
Hi anon 2:08, those pesky countries are waiting to jump into the bandwagon.
And Veritas,
The Americans have been conducting limited warfare for ages, from Korea, Vietnam, ME and Afghan. And they thought they could conduct a limited war with China. Those countries have no means of escalating to the next level. They could not even hit back at the Americans unless the Americans go after them.
China is a different proposition. It can conduct wars in Japan and even in the US with ICBMs. Can any of the parties, Japan and the US, all with capabilities to escalate the theatre of war accept a losing position without raising the scale?
I always take the position that war between China and the US is not possible simply because they cannot limit the war once started. Both will just add in more munition to be on the winning side and it will be free for all.
The dumb Americans need to have their heads examined to localise a war with China. Not even Japan could do that. If Japan were to sink a Chinese naval craft, the Chinese will return with two and vice versa and there it goes.
Matilah, fuck you lar. Chinese and Japanese are yellow does not mean the same when world war two, the jap were killing the Chinese and Korean like there is no tomorrow.
senkaku is part of japan... although japan may not win, they will surely put up a good fight. and after that, we in SEA will be left at mercy of china's hedgemony.
This Chinese hegemony thing is a western myth. The truth is that the world has been under western hegemony for the last few hundred years. America is the Empire and would not allow any country challenge that.
We are living under American hegemony.
Not so bad lah.
Consider the alternative ;-)
Anyway, those fuckers have the reserve currency of the world. So everyone is screwed as Bernanke is about to do some more printing.
The American Empire is in decline, but as she sinks, she'll take a few billion souls from other cuntrees down with her.
The best part is, America's formidable wealth will cushion most of the pain. The other cuntrees pulled down are not so wealthy and thus they will experience a lot more pain.
Got justice?
It is really unfortunate that in Singapore, we are exposed mainly to the western press and the western world, in particular, USA, propaganda and manipulation of history. Many of us are not aware that a huge chunk of current Japanese territory was taken away from other countries pre-, during and post- WWII. some of which was given to Japan by the USA, as though USA owned them in the first place. This was during the period when the Qing Dynasty was at its rotten worst and almost every countries outside of China wanted a slice of this Middle Kingdom.
That was the time our ancestors moved southward to Singapore and South East Asia to try to survive the impossibly hard life in China.
Okinawa, Ryukyu islands and all the other islands south of it all belong to China. This is in the history book and is non- disputable.
I always remember what Deng Xiao Ping told Margaret Tatcher in 1984 in a meeting in Beijing when she she was trying to set various terms and conditions for the return of Hong Kong to China. Deng Xiao Ping told her, "Soverignty is NON negotiable!" and he walked out of the room!
Time to do the same.
It will also be interesting to see how Taiwan play her part here. With Ma's intention of heli-dropping in on the surrounding islands of Diaoyutai, it could well signal clearly to Japan that as far as all Chinese are concerned, national territory transcends political disagreement.
If ever there was a war combining China and Taiwan against Japan, with South Korea having their dispute with Japan, and Russia not about to concede their own territory, the USA would have to re-think carefully its strategy of fighting a proxy war using Japan in this 四面楚歌 scenario.
Who bank rolled the Japanese industrial military complex?
Who supplied the oil and steel for Japan's industrialization ?
Who forced Japan to open its Ports to trade and taught them
Capitalism ?
Who bank rolled the 1905 Russo-Japanese War as part of the great game?
Who supported Japanese Imperialist ambitions ? when they attack China and Korea from 1910 to 1941?
It was USA and Wall ST .... with American oil, steel and credit ...
Japan went to War with USA help
Bush's grand father was Hitlers Banker in Wall St during WW2!!
USA supplied Japan 80% of its oil for its War Machine
American oil, steel and credit embargo against Japan only started in August 1941 ....
The American oil embargo caused a crisis in Japan
This forced Japan's hand and that's why they attack Malaya and Philippines for the resources .... Hence an enemy of the Allied Powers
Japan having Modernize and Industrialize , they cant turn back into a Agrarian society!!
China right now are in the same situation? will they learn from Japan's Mistakes?
Sorry RB for posting double
Bengster
Hi Abao, what is your basis to say that Senkaku is Japanese?
Bengster, it is very difficult to understand how the thinking of people at those days and today could be so differnt.
The Brits could rule India and many countries around the world. The Americans simply killed off the Red Indians.
And Japan really believed that it could conquer China, Korea and the whole of Southeast Asia.
Follow the money.
Bill Hicks on War and Freedom
George Carlin We Like War, Bomb Brown People!
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/east-asia-s-nationalist-fantasy-islands-by-ian-buruma
Well, the US complicated the matters. Legally I would say since since the Qing Empire lost the 1894 war and signed off the territory, they should had been legally annexed by Japan.
That war was supposed to be fairly equal in ship count, but due to corruption many of the Qing ammunition were duds.
Historically, China has also never claimed to have an interest in acquiring islands and peripherals. Even the Ming fleets were mainly only for assertion of force rather than conquest and colonise.
China has always prided itself on being the Middle Kingdom, meaning the central is in the Yellow River regions of Luoyang, Kaifeng, Xian, etc. With such a context, how to properly claim that they focus on those islands that are small as rocks to them?
Agree. Legally China lost the islands to Japan after being defeated in a war. Only way to get it back is to fight another war.
Under the vassal and tributary system, the Liuchiu Islands and Diaoyutai were within the Chinese Empire. But China recognised the sovereignty of the vassal states and did not take them over. Diaoyutai was just part of the Empire, the boundary that the Empire extended to. The Japanese knew that and kept away till they were stronger to defeat China and took it over like they took Dokdo, Korea, Taiwan and Penghu islands.
They are the spoils of war and can only be retaken by war. China knows it and is waiting for the right moment to take it back.
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