The Saudi/Yemen war was a massive humanitarian crisis, largely ignored by the Western MSM. Saudi Arabia was then supported by the USA, while the Yemen opposition, the Houthis, was supported by Iran. The status quo still stands and what is the result is left to be seen.
Without the control of the Bab Al-Mandab, the Saudis do not have access to the Red Sea route, even if it tried to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. Is there any substance talking about oil moving out of the Middle East at levels before the war? I am flabbergasted at the optimistic fabrication.
Right now, Trump is gloating about the release of 100 million barrels of oil from stockpiles by the G7 countries to soften the blow and hoping to keep oil prices from rising further before November. How realistic is the attempt and what will be the consequence if the blockade in the Middle East continues? Are the G7 countries capable of influencing oil prices just by releasing stockpiles? A hype is just a hype, nothing else. What is important is the reality.
Anonymous
2 comments:
Saudi Arabia and its allies now claim that they have wrestled control of the Bab Al-Mandab from the Houthis. How great is that going to be for navigation or just hype? Who is going to be the permanent resident there and who are to be the hotel guests?
We know very well that the Houthis can target ships in the Gulf of Aden as well which is its front yard, not just ships passing through the Bab Al-Mandab waterway. So, what is going to change regarding the Saudis now controlling the Bab Al-Mandab? That stretch of water is not going to be navigation free from now onwards, whether under the Houthi's control or Saudi Arabia. The same as the Strait of Hormuz. If you believe in the gloating, no proof is necessary. The proof lies with shipowners and insurers.
Saudi Arabia had fought a long, drawn-out war against the Houthis before, supported by the USA. Did the Saudi's win that conflict? Now that the peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia are fracturing, it is going to be back to the bad-old-days. One side needs the Bab Al-Mandab staying open for its oil exports, the other side cares two hoots about closing the Bab Al-Mandab. Who is more desperate is not difficult to see. The Houthis will just sit around and wait, nothing to lose and no oil exports to care about.
Rich men fighting poor men? Something like USA fighting Taliban? Or USA fighting North Vietnam? Or USA fighting North Korea? More to come.
Post a Comment