The dominance of the PAP is waning since the last GE and the
two disastrous by elections. Joining as a PAP candidate is no guarantee of a
free ticket to Parliament today. There is a new sense of fear among the candidates,
ministers included, that suay suay it would be their last election, ala George
Yeo and his team in Aljunied.
Aljunied GRC, Punggol East and Hougang would be the tiger’s
lair that no candidate would want to be in. The fear is obvious and understandable.
Any opposition ward is not a nice place for the ruling party to contest. It
took nearly 20 years for the PAP to take back Potong Pasir, but more by default
rather than by merit. The SPP made a big blunder by fielding the wrong
candidate. Otherwise Potong Pasir would still be safely in the hands of the
SPP. Having said that, other than those wards won by the WP, Potong Pasir is
still a touch and go thing and a strong opposition candidate would have a very
high chance of wrestling it back from the PAP.
The news of Chan Chun Sing appearing in Sembawang and Khaw
Boon Wan moving to East Coast is sending out a new signal that both Tanjong
Pagar and East Coast GRCs might be vulnerable battle fields. How’s that? Chan
Chun Sing is the PM heir apparent and moving him away from the PAP’s stronghold
in Tanjong Pagar is as good as saying that it is no longer safe. PAP would not
want to risk this PM potential in a risky ward. Putting him in Sembawang must
be seen as lifting him up to safety. They would not be a need to move him from
Tanjong Pagar if it is safe. The safer the better to ensure that Chan Chun Sing
would still be around after the next GE.
Khaw Boon Wan is still seen as a strong minister in the
books of the PAP as there are not many such ministers left. Moving him to East
Coast is like confirming the rumour that Lim Swee Say is either resigning or
East Coast is at high risk of falling. Of course there are several GRCs that
are obviously very weak and highly likely to go the opposition way. And there
are also ministers that are highly vulnerable in the eyes of the public and
have lost their drawing power. Some ministers are clearly a liability and would
not be able to hold on to their forts in the next GE.
This explains the other two fear factors of PAP candidates.
Many would be very uncomfortable being fielded in constituencies or GRCs that
are seen as weak. Given a chance they would not want to go there. And many
would also be worried about being fielded in GRCs helmed by very weak or
unpopular ministers that have very high possibility of losing. It is now not
that comfortable being a PAP candidate when winning is no longer a given. To be in a winning team they must be in safe
constituencies and in the company of reasonably safe ministers.
In fact in opposition wards it is like fighting a losing
battle from the start for PAP candidates. And this same lousy feeling can now
be applied, to a lesser degree, to being field in weak wards or with weak
ministers, like being sent for the slaughter.
The rules of the game have changed and now it is a matter of
how many would not make it in the next GE. Wearing white to do battle is not
like it was before. The confidence of sure win or 90% chance of winning would
not be the case anymore. In most cases, it is like a 50:50 case. And in high
risk or opposition wards it is an uphill task with losing a better certainty.
Kopi Level - Blue, Thank you.
20 comments:
"The confidence of sure win or 90% chance of winning would not be the case anymore."
RB
Still there lah, as long as there are one too many Sinkie opposition parties and the strongest one is also not ready to be govt.
Just remember what Teochew Ah Hia had said, majority Sinkies (aka 60%) are very scared they accidentally vote PAP out because WP is not ready to be govt. And this is the most crucial unspoken statement to be spoken in Sinkie politics.
Or else ah, it would had happened in worse times like in 2011 already, no need to wait till next election.
So by moving Chan Chun Sing and Khaw Boon Wan, PAP is just trying to improve its 60% only lah , that's all. And win PAP will, unless an opposition party leader announce it will, just like the PAP, contest 100% seats as one party.
".....there are one too many Sinkie opposition parties and the strongest one is also not ready to be govt."
Anon 9:18 am
Ya lor, can u imagine, had the Sinkie opposition, instead of PAP, won 93% seats in 2011?
What kind of cabinet and govt will Sinkieland have now? A not ready Teochew Ah Hia as PM, and Hainan Ah Ko as DPM?
I still remember LKY challenging strongest opposition WP in GE 2011 by asking "Line up your shadow Cabinet!"
Of course WP cannot lah, because "bo kau lang" (people no enough) mah.
That's why majority Sinkies (aka 60%) also very scared lor.
IBs are like seow lang kong seow way.
Knnccb.. today is the festive of lights
Yet u all nonok enlightened
Papigs will cling to power ... gerrymendering will ensure of this
Maybe ... will use ah neh electronik voting machines .. vote alternative candidate n due to ah neh programming skills ... dunno what will happen
Maybe .. new citizens . Because of their intelleegience wil get to cast ten votes per person
Btw .. anybody has new citizens friend? Wonder what their nric number look like?
Pgp citizens get to cast extra votes too ...
So u all look ... how 2 lose?
Neber mind ... limpeh curse papigs. Knn pubor yaosiew humkar chan
But u all dun do this curse , nonok good for yourself
Many people in Aljunied are lamenting that they replaced the venerable George Yeo with a bunch of nincompoops. Many are regretting their decision in GE 2011.
Indeed, the folks at AHPETC are not only incompetent, they are lawless and irresponsible.
In parliament, the opposition MPs are either spineless, refusing to take a stand on major issues, or foolhardy, with suggestions like "we should have more street protests so that the police can practice crowd control".
I don't whether to laugh or cry at this standard of MPs.
I hope Aljunied gets proper leadership in our next election.
Sneaky Raymond, I don't know whether to laugh or cry at your pathetic self. Today is Deepavali and I would not scold you. Hope you can see some light after this festival.
I am a resident of Aljunied GRC.
Before 2011, the place had a lot of cockroaches, and also entered my flat frequently. Every fortnight or a month I would see one or 2.
After 2011, a lot less and now not a single cockroach seen in my house or outside for 2014.
So those AHPETC folks, whatever their other faults, are doing a good job on this, as compared to under PAP.
I give credit where credit is due, whether PAP or WP.
Its good to see that RB recognizes that opposition parties can in fact challenge. Maybe not 100% of seats, but it is good to know the WP provides a good challenge now that any PAP vs WP fight is a 50-50, or even slightly in favour of WP.
This is a lot better, and more relevant to society than always reading about RB blaming the opposition parties for not speaking up for his heroes at HLP.
pls lah.......
the ruling party knows very very
well their own strengths and
weaknesses and knows who to move
and what to do.....
as I am now "eat-full-very-free",
let me be the fortune teller of
the results of the coming GE and
give you a few 4-D to "huat"......
if called 1st half 2015 : 63/37
if called 2nd half 2015 : 68/32
if called 1st half 2016 : 58/42
of course at your own risks....
ha ha ha,......cheers....
Alamak.... stinkapore fools no business ah?
asked u to cum n give ang jee on ang tow blog?
knn. Hsienloong, papigs et al
KNN if ang tow tng no good why everyday you must come here to eat? Go some where and eat shit lah.
It likes Hong Kong TV series it get more intriguing as the story continues!
If election works, rome will not have collapsed.
Ex Grassroot Leader Chan Chun Sing may like to take note of the Observation made by Raymond.
If Raymond is right or even believable, Minister Chan Chun Sing must be able to claim back Aljunied GRC with both hands tied to his back.
patriot
The PAP big guns will never contest in opposition wards. 2016 will be no different. Maybe they will try their luck by putting animal lovers in opposition wards. They know 'arse lovers' will not stand a chance after Punggol East BE.
Our great leaders used to taunt Low and Chiam to leave their wards to contest elsewhere, and with that they thought Hougang will be 'pau chiak'. But they themselves dare not move outside their constituency.
Why not? Chan Chun Sing is going to fight for every inch of the ground. He may volunteer to charge at Aljunied to show that he is a real leader and lead by example.
Raymond hor?
Many of the ministers must be thinking of stepping or faced being stepped down by the people in the next GE. The problem is the millions that they would have to forgo. So it is a desperate attempt to hope to be re elected at all cost or face the embarrassment of joining George Yeo and company on the sideline and with the record of being sacked by the people.
In parliament, the opposition MPs are either spineless, refusing to take a stand on major issues,...Raymond
Yo Raymond, are you referring to PAP MPs?
dun rejoice too fast soon gaint two legged cockroaches will be conducting door 2 door visits n give u freebies ..
Of course ... they will inform u in advance
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