India's economy is growing sharply and that means bad
news for India when the USA starts getting worried and may start
resorting to its old habit of taking India down before it becomes
another China.
But I believe India is not in any position to
pose a threat to the USA or China within the next three decades at
least. As not a few prominent economists clearly prophesied that 'the
next China is still China'.
No matter how India's growth may be
gloated about, the gap to close is still too wide in terms of upending
China. Moreover, India still needs industrialization on a scale, unheard
of in history, in order to pose any semblance of a challenge to the USA
or China. Everything about India's growth has to be in multiples of
what China can achieve in order for India to catch up. If China grows at
5%, India will need growth of at least 25% to catch up. Is that
possible?
China's 5% growth will add about US$900 billion to its
GDP every year. Even the USA at 2.5% growth only adds about another
US$700 billion to its GDP annually. For India, growing at 20% merely
adds another US$800 billion, still short for catching up. This is
excluding compounding the figures every year. How is India expected to
grow at 20% annually in GDP without the required infrastructure, skilled
manpower and supply chains to helm its growth?
Anonymous
India's economy is catching up with China or just 'playing catching up' with China? 'Playing catching up' is more likely, as catching up is just a hype that the Indians love so much to hear.
ReplyDeleteThe gap is too wide, the problems too difficult to resolve, the political system is a big hindrance actually. Democracy is more a liability than an asset in the case of India. Things move so slowly and implementation so full of pitfalls and roadblocks, it does not even seem possible to get things done or moving at all.
And please do not point to the argument of 'population dividend' that the West is trying to pull wool over people's eyes without looking at the situation. 'Population dividend' can only work in richer countries like Japan or Germany where people are needed to fill job vacancies. A population expansion for Japan would be a bonus for Japan to leverage on. Japan needs more people to work to support the Japanese industry and companies needing younger workers to fill job vacancies.
India does not generate enough jobs to support its population growth, so where is the 'dividend' that they are talking about? As more younger Indians graduated from universities, they cannot even find fulfilling jobs to fit their course of study. To say that India has a 'population dividend' to reap is living in a fool's paradise.
Good Afternoon All
ReplyDeleteThere is a report by an Indian Intellectual that China's GDP is six (6) times that of India.
How can the Indian GDP catch up ah?
Modi in QUAD and as an accomplice in statement that China is a THREAT in the Indo-Pacific Region.
Whilst also a BRICs member on the side.
So which side is he in?
Wanted to stir shits with the Whites and that Blinking Idiot Blinken so that India could overtake China ah?
Double or triple headed snake?
As they love to hear the word 'overtake' when talking about China, just pretend they will overtake. My forecast is next year should overtake. Everybody happy.
ReplyDeleteCorrect term should be undertake by an undertaker.
Delete