7/02/2022

Covid19 - The deception of numbers

COVID-19 IN ASIA: 7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE
From March 2020 to Jun 30, 2022

MALAYSIA - 2,315
THAILAND - 2,241
SOUTH KOREA - 7,651
MYANMAR - 9
PHILIPPINES - 843
VIETNAM - 839
SINGAPORE - 7,644
INDONESIA - 1,948

Source: Johns Hopkins University

 In some schools or organisations, the passing mark for a test is 90. In some, the passing mark could be 50. In the former, getting 89 is bad, failed. In the latter, getting 51 is good, passed. Put the 89 marks student beside the 51 marks student, who is the better student? Not sure, quite confusing.

China has a zero Covid policy. So a few cases is bad. And the western media and some silly media would play it up, China is having 50 cases and now 100 cases, horrifying. China is in deep trouble, fighting a war to contain the rising numbers. Silly WHO also came out to dismiss China's zero Covid policy as unsustainable, meaning China should let the Covid cases grow and spread, pointless to maintain a zero Covid policy, sure to fail. China should just join the West, the leaders of the world, and relax, let it go. Luckily or unluckily, China has reported that there is no new cases in Shanghai and Beijing now.  If there is a will to control the pandemic, it can be done, not unsustainable, no need to raise the hands and say, give up.

The USA has hundreds of millions of cases and no one seems a bit concern. No problem at all. Just live with it. What is Singapore's policy? Probably like the USA, the number is not important, not a standard to be observed. What 6,000 to 11,000?  Is this important, serious, dangerous? It all depends. If the standard is 0, this is very serious. If the standard is no standard, infinity, this is small matter. Even 100,000 is small matter when the standard is infinity.

Is there any problem or contradiction? Or it is just a number game and play whatever way you like as long as you are happy with it? Moving targets? Deception? Whatever way you look at it, science is science and not art. Science has specific numbers and right or wrong. In art, there is no fixed numbers or right or wrong, just relative.

If tomorrow the govt chooses to follow a zero policy, we will be in Dorscon Red. Today when there is no guideline or standard to observe or measure what is good or bad, we are neither here nor there, 11,000 also not orange or yellow. No need to look at any standard anymore.

This is like in the past a degree is necessary for some jobs. Now no need degree as there is no standard requirement that says a degree is needed. Happy, happy ok liao. Why be concerned about numbers and be burdened by numbers?

Can anyone remember the rhetoric when Covid first started, the fear, the hysteria? It is all in the mind, a mind game. If you say Covid is nothing to be afraid of, then there is no need to worry about anything, no need to force people to jab and jab, and booster after booster. No need to be misled by a vaccine that is not a vaccine, more like a placebo.

PS. The way this pandemic is being reported has a lot to do with the political agenda of the reporter, like a report on the Ukraine war, depending on which side is the butter being spread.

5 comments:

  1. If we have not been fooled by numbers manipulation over the years, we are really screwed if we continue to put trust in them. When they can fabricate lies to start a war in Iraq, what else could they not fabricate just as easily.

    I can't believe our own inflation figures as well, at just 5.4%. That is a sick joke. Anybody who has been eating outside, or buying things regularly, knows it is more like 15 to 20%. Of course ordinary folks like us have no way of dis-crediting the official figures. And that is one way the Government is stealing our hard earned money! And of course the rich business people just get richer and richer when they keep upping the prices of their products and services, like no Government, or when they claim the Government is doing the same thing.

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  2. Anyway and anyhow Sin shall end its' good days soon.
    Be it truth, fake,
    fabrcate and make-up, sugar-coated
    sweet nothing, NONE CAN XAVE SIN.
    MAN-MAKE AND NATURAL DISASTER LS SHALL OVERWHELM THE
    TINY DOT. HOWEVER,
    IT SHALL NOT MATTER OR BOTHER
    ANYONE ELSE
    AS IT IS JUST A TINY PIECE OF BARREN ROCK.



    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Its posterity shall stink with the Many that all
      help to run it to ground zero.
      Sigh

      Delete

  3. We are going through a BA.5 wave.


    Folks who are 80 and older, should get vaccinated and go for their 1st and 2nd boosters, if they have not already done so. The 2nd booster helps improve their resistance to severe or fatal covid infection.

    Folks who are 50-80 should also have their vaccination, and at least one booster shot. A 2nd booster is advisable if their 1st booster is more than 5 months old, and:
    - they expect to travel
    - they are socially active
    - their have vulnerable folks at home
    - they have various underlying risks
    - they want to further reduce their risk of severe or fatal infection

    So for the 70,000 seniors 60 and older who have not yet have their vaccination shots or boosters, please seriously consider going for their shots, esp for their primary shots plus 1st boosters. This is esp important for the elderly 80 and older to reduce their covid risks - the chances of getting infected by Omicron is much higher than for the earlier variants.

    The best protection even for the bedridden is for their families, neighbours and friends to help them get vaccinated and boosted.

    Adults who are 18-50, should also have their vaccination, and their 1st booster shot. They generally do not require a 2nd booster shot as their protection against severe or fatal covid infections remain excellent even after 9 months or likely longer.

    The medically vulnerable among these younger adults below 50 years old can consider a 2nd booster shot. Medical vulnerability means they have specific medical conditions which increase their risk of severe or fatal covid infection.

    Clear cut cases would include those who are immunocompromised like those undergoing chemo or other treatment which weaken their immune system.

    Other medically vulnerable young adults would have other conditions which exacerbates their covid risks, like diabetes, obesity, various heart or other organ issues.

    When in doubt whether they need a 2nd booster, they should consult their doctors, who know their specifics of their medical vulnerabilities.

    For those who have had a covid infection last year, or even earlier this year, a 2nd booster is still strongly recommended for those 80 and above, and recommended for those 50-80 years old.

    Primary vaccination or boosters can be taken at least 4 weeks after their infections - easier to just think one month or 4 weeks instead of 28 days.

    Boosters are not recommended for teens and children, unless they have some serious medical vulnerabilities. Parents should discuss with their children’s doctors if they are worried or wish to get boosters for their kids.

    Teens and kids typically have very low risk of severe or fatal covid infection, even without vaccination.

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  4. However, primary vaccination is still recommended for teens and primary school or pre-school children as they tend to be socially very active mixing boisterously in schools or with friends outside school.

    Boosters are not necessary for teens and children from 5 years up, except for a tiny minority who are medically vulnerable.

    Such medically vulnerable cases, whether teens and kids or adults, would best be reviewed and managed by their doctors. For instance, those undergoing chemo treatment for cancer would need to time their vaccination in between their chemo cycles to optimise the vaccine response when their immune system is not so suppressed by chemo drugs.

    For the very young kids, below 5, approval has been given in the USA for their primary vaccination.

    In Sg, our vaccine specialist committee and national vaccine committee are reviewing the data, and could make their recommendations soon for infants and toddlers up to 4+ years old.

    While we may have reached an inflection point on the speed of doubling, we are still in the growth phase of the current wave.

    At a weekly ratio of 1.65, we would quadruple every 3 weeks or so. So the momentum is still quite strong.

    With the inflection when the weekly ratio starts to go down below 1.65, but not yet below 1, we would still be in a growth phase for the BA.5.

    This is likely to peak sometime late July, or even in August.

    Hence, we should take extra precautions in the light of the current wave, esp for the elderly and vulnerable.

    While the BA.5 is likely to be mild for the vaccinated and boostes, there are some signs that the BA.5 (and its close cousin BA.4) are better at infecting our lung cells. So do use the oximeter to check for oxygen levels if we get infected and are feeling somewhat down.

    With the BA.5, or other Omicron variants, past infections provide lower prevention of infection or reinfection compared to a vaccine shot.

    For younger adults below 50 years old, it makes more sense to wait for the broad base vaccine to be available, possibly as soon as next year if we are lucky, but possibly over the next 2-3 years.

    With the passing of time, we could also see more data on the longevity of the deep cellular protection from vaccination.

    Meanwhile, we know tests with former SARS patients who have had their full vaccination have shown that they generate very broad based protection against all the various covid as well as SARS and a few other coronaviruses.

    Earlier tests have also shown that some of them still have deep cellular defences against SARS itself - this is well over a decade after they recovered from SARS.

    These various datapoints are giving scientists some optimism that they could develop a broad based against am important class of coronaviruses which infect humans.

    Younger folks already have excellent prevention against severe and fatal covid, from primary doses plus 1 booster for 18-50 years old, and primary doses only for kids and teens above 5 years old.

    Hence, for this group, it makes more sense to wait for the broad based vaccines, to help improve their protection against more new covid variants, or even against future coronavirus type pandemics.

    Of course, older folks can also take an additional 3rd broad based type booster much much later if and when these become available.

    Meanwhile, their 2nd booster, esp for the elderly and for seniors, would have reduce their covid risk to match those of their children who have had 1 booster.

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