“We affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought,” read the statement released on Monday. “As nuclear use would have far-reaching consequences, we also affirm that nuclear weapons – for as long as they continue to exist – should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war.”
The above is reported in RT.com.
How much to believe in this statement? How many of them would abide by this pledge? How many of them are out there inciting wars, egging countries to go to war, conducting wars and planning to invade other countries?
They may pledge to avoid nuclear war. But as long as they think war is an option, everyday wanting to start wars, once started and involving one of these nuclear powers, it would end up in a nuclear war. None would take a defeat in a conventional war lightly given that they have nuclear weapons as a last ditch if the other side pushes for a total defeat and surrender.
It is not just about avoiding nuclear war, but all kinds of wars. War is no longer a sensible option as the destructive nature of modern weapons is unimaginable if fully released in a full scale war. No country should be talking about war or planning to go to war.
The reckless and irresponsible warmongers must stop from straying into this war path. By the way, who would benefit from this war and who would be the losers? Would follow up with a piece on this.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/01/03/p5-statement-on-preventing-nuclear-war-and-avoiding-arms-races/
ReplyDelete'We affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. As nuclear use would have far-reaching consequences, we also affirm that nuclear weapons—for as long as they continue to exist—should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war. We believe strongly that the further spread of such weapons must be prevented.
'
In other words, conventional war weapons including tactical nukes are still ok...
MAD Mutually Assured Destruction policy adopted by all nations assures that there are no "winners" in a nuclear war.
ReplyDelete"Disarmament" is wayang only lah. No nuclear sovereign is going to totally abandon their terrifying weapons, because owning them ensures relative peace...they can still fight using conventional weapons.
WSG's favourite ETF $ITA US Defence & Aerospace) is “cheap” now. Could there be another bull market coming in War Stocks? π
The evil US Hegemonic Empire has been sending its warships, in violation of international laws, into the Chinese territorial and Russian territorial waters at will all the time, in order to provoke, intimidate and displaying belligerence towards the Chinese and Russian people.
ReplyDeleteIt is about time that China and Russia reciprocate the aggressive actions of the evil US Hegemonic Empire.
The world does not belong to the evil Americans alone.
In spite of lasting restrictions, Singapore has rather outdone itself in 2021, not only rebounding from the slump of the previous year but in several areas setting record results - in trade, local salaries, national reserves and inward and outward investment.
ReplyDeleteThe expected border reopening in 2022 should boost it even higher!
The city-state went into the pandemic being best prepared in the world - and now emerges as one of its biggest winners.
https://www.facebook.com/640022356105495/posts/4652470714860619/
https://vulcanpost.com/776461/trade-salaries-reserves-investment-2021-record-year-singapore/
Vultures must be at work at the vulcanpost.com?
ReplyDelete@ all the whiners and whinging sad souls:
ReplyDelete>> https://vulcanpost.com/776461/trade-salaries-reserves-investment-2021-record-year-singapore/
Quote: "2021 was in many areas a record year for the country, proving its remarkable resilience. " <<
Now do you get what I'm trying to tell you?
Fortress Singapore πͺπ½ π
Huat ah! 𧧠π§§
Who care two hoots WTF you are trying to whine to pass your lonely old dying days?
DeleteInvest in uranium suppliers & nuclear weapons manufacturers.
ReplyDeleteUranium ETF --- 94% gains in 2 years
Uranium miners/suppliers:
Cameco --- 118% gains
Kazatomprom --- 178% gains
Actually more & more countries will need to build more & more nuclear power stations. The #1 country in this is Chai-Nah.
WSG
The more pertinent question is can Russia and China trust the USA on just words alone? Can China and Russia even trust the two USA lap dogs, France and UK? It will really be foolhardy for China and Russia to do so.
ReplyDeleteThe USA is the only country ever to use nuclear weapons on another and have on numerous occasions threatened to nuke China in secret.
China and Russia must continue to build up their nuclear upgrading and deterrent at all cost, whether to be used or not. Tomorrow when tensions rises, the USA is going to say we do not have to follow the 'no nuclear war policy' we agreed upon earlier, as they continue to stockpile their nuclear missiles. Just look at how they just unilaterally withdrew from nuclear treaties signed with Russia and Iran and climate change for example.
You can't even trust the USA on anything, not to say on such life and death issue as not fighting a nuclear war. Trust them and you will die in ignorance without bliss.
How to expect Biden to agree when his standing for his mid term is at rock bottom. He really did a fucked up job of choosing the wrong running mate that is helping to sink the boat. That Alamak woman can't even help him, but is even a liability. The US election is really a sick joke with such candidates with such mentality standing for election.
ReplyDeleteBut then, everyone knows, these are merely puppets fronting the show all along, with those with real power dictating behind the throne. Ignorance is bliss!
@Matilah,
ReplyDeleteWar stocks have gone nowhere from just before covid till today. Perhaps a reflection of the winddown of Mid-East adventures & Biden's leftist administration's approach to the military industrial complex. But fundamentally still strong & a good place to be for the long run. War & conflict is just too ingrained in humans.
Good news is the move back towards Cold War between big powers & this has strong bipartisan support. Witness the easy passage of record sized defense budget which will work its way into the various war companies.
I've actually been rather neutral since 3rd quarter of last year with over 35% in cash.
My stocks are now slightly overweight in agriculture, banks, oil & gas, value stocks, and industrials.
Will be using the ongoing volatility to add to war stocks.
WSG
PS: The current corrections & bear markets in various countries' indexes are BTFD moments. Not a sell the fuck out & hide in bunker moment.
@ WSG
ReplyDeleteI did quite ok from Ur last year. Also from $GUSH, the 3x oil bull ETF. I'm out of those trades now. I'm ~45% in cash and have the "shopping list" ready, waiting for "The Sale" to start.π Not BTFD.
I've shorted the US financial sector and "long" only one stock, Berkshire B (the cheap one) which I've been "collecting" for nearly 2 years since the massive pain of March 2020. Sold all my tech, China, India, shithole emerging markets, and 60% of my cryptos, which I sold in mid-Nov just after I decided the momentum had reversed.
My Aussie friends have done exceptionally with Lithium, Uranium and other resource companies. I don't like those companies cos they are capital intensive. I'd rather buy the futures instead, but I don't play in that space...yet.
You are very lucky to live in Singapore. I have to settle with the Australian Tax office (legalized robbery! π€¬) a big chunk my trading gains...especially my crypto gains. This is why I can't wait to GTFO of Australia and transfer all my stocks and crypto to Singapore where the govt leaves people alone to make or lose money!
I'm an old-school Graham-Buffet-Munger-Greenblat value (+ momentum) guy, but I also loveπ to trade---fro the sheer "intellectual exercise" of making money from reasoning, math and human behaviour...which I find fascinating.
I used to suck very badly at trading, but I've been receiving valuable coaching from a good old childhood friend who used to be on the desks at Merrill, Goldman etc., but now retired and lepak-ing on a beach in Thailand with a new wife 35 years his junior. So I've improved a lot, thanks to him, and his generous offer in coaching me.
So best of luck and may you have favourable winds at your back!
Investing in Uranium?
ReplyDeleteUranium prices are up about 40% in the past one year, mainly because of the urgency to go Green.
Investing in mining stocks does give some exposure to uranium stocks while at the same time providing a cushion if prices for that commodity fall. But putting money into smaller companies that deal solely on uranium can provide more reward if uranium prices rise.
For going Green, nuclear energy holds a unique spot in the transition from fossil fuels to sustainable energy.
On the one hand, its main fuel, uranium, has to be mined, raising all sorts of environmental and social concerns if done irresponsibly.
Radioactivity is also terrible for the environment in the event of an accident, and nobody wants spent fuel in their backyard.
On the other hand, nuclear energy can provide baseload power without the emissions of coal or natural gas and without being susceptible to the on-and-off nature of solar and wind energy.
Can investing in uranium through uranium stocks, funds and futures offer a chance to take advantage of this dynamic and valuable metal?
Even as some countries are winding down their nuclear projects, the United States has set aside US$billions in the recently-passed Infrastructure Bill to support the next generation of nuclear reactors.
The European Commission is also drafting a plan that would include nuclear power "as a means to facilitate the transition towards a predominantly renewable-based future.
On the supply side, recent turmoil in Kazakhstan, the world's largest producer of uranium, has also contributed to rising prices.
The fundamentals of uranium continue to improve, with demand for uranium now exceeding pre-Fukushima levels and global uranium production is lagging behind global consumption. Therefore, a deficit is expected to persist for the next few years.
With that as a backdrop, and the fact that uranium futures prices are up 40% on the average over the past one year, some of you may want to consider to jump on the bandwagon of potential further uranium price increases.
Before jumping in, you should consider the risks to investing in uranium.
1. The uranium market is extremely volatile. Any commodities-related investments can be particularly volatile, as most are closely linked to the boom-or-bust economic cycles. Unique to uranium, there is also the public fear of radioactive pollution and occasionally the highly publicized disasters such as the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant disaster in 2011, after an earthquake and tsunami in Japan.
2. The price of uranium is highly exposed to legislative risk and public policy risk. Should the citizens of a country turn away from its desire to use nuclear reactors, then the demand could drop and cause prices to soften substantially overnight.
3. There are other risks too (stated below).
If you decide to take on the risks in hopes of the potential reward, one way to invest in uranium is to buy uranium-focused mining stocks such as Cameco Corp (CCJ) and Kazatomprom (KAP). These are the big fish. Smaller uranium producers include Energy Fuels Inc. (UUUU) and Ur-Energy Inc. (URG).
Diversified miners that also extract substantial quantities of uranium are BHP Group (BHP) and Rio Tinto Group (RIO).
The favorite name in the game is CCJ. It looks like it is trying to find a bottom on its daily and weekly chart.
Investing in diversified miners does give some exposure to uranium while at the same time providing a cushion if prices for that commodity fall. But putting money into smaller companies focused on the radioactive metal can provide more reward if uranium prices rise.
And there are risks that come with individual mining stocks – such as political risk, increasing production costs, declining ore grades, balance sheet risk and the risks of potentially poor management decisions.
Continues ...
ReplyDeleteContinues from above:
For those who want exposure to the mining sector – as well as other players in the nuclear energy industry – without having to pick individual uranium stocks, you can go to exchange-traded funds, which invest in baskets of stocks but trade under a single name on an exchange.
North Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF (URNM) buys shares in companies involved in mining, exploration, development and production of uranium and those that hold physical uranium, uranium royalties or other non-mining assets. VanEck Vectors Uranium+Nuclear Energy ETF (NLR) invests in miners, nuclear utilities, nuclear power plant builders and businesses that supply the nuclear power industry. Global X Uranium ETF (URA) invests in companies involved in uranium mining and nuclear-industry component production.
Adding nuclear utilities into the mix can offer some cushion to volatile uranium prices. When the metal's price goes down, that benefits the utilities that have to buy the stuff. Also, utilities in general are considered defensive plays in an economic downturn because people are going to need electricity regardless of what the economy does. Meanwhile, in an economic downturn demand for uranium might wane because manufacturers wouldn't need as much electricity.
Uranium Futures
You can also trade uranium futures, but you probably won't want to unless you're a true pro. CME Group Inc. (CME) offers monthly contracts for trading uranium, which is priced in U.S. dollars per pound. Each contract unit is 250 pounds, but because they are financially settled you can't take delivery of that and end up with a pile of fissionable material on your lawn.
Using futures contracts to invest in uranium is an extremely risky endeavor. All futures contracts are volatile, but the illiquidity of the backing asset causes this form of uranium investment to not be advised unless you are truly wanting to speculate/gamble with the price movement.
Another way to get financial exposure to the underlying commodity is with Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (U.U), the only publicly listed physical uranium fund on the market. Units can be bought or sold just like stocks and each one represents a physical amount of uranium held by Sprott.
As of Jan. 7, the Sprott trust had amassed 42.7 million pounds of uranium, up from 18.1 million pounds when the fund launched in July last year.
Another alternative investment vehicle is Uranium Royalty Corp. (UROY), which invests in uranium companies in exchange for royalties or other interests. It also makes physical uranium purchases.
The company is well-positioned as a capital provider to an industry needing massive investments in global productive capacity to meet the growing need for uranium as fuel for carbon-free nuclear energy.
Good luck. You need it.
A-non-y-mouse.
@Matilah,
ReplyDeleteMan, sounds like you really need to setup offshore accounts & brokerages.
Surprised that you didn't setup things here in Singapore previously.
Maybe Old Man RB can help. ������
With the Fed tightening we probably need to become bit more of bond specialists & yield curve aficionados.
I think US finance is going to do well in the next few years. We're in a bear flattener environment, which is indicative of early phase of economic & business cycle.
According to Merrill Lynch which analysed 43 years of US markets, the best returns for stocks occurred in bear flattener periods.
The kick-off phase of bear flatteners (which is basically when the Fed starts rate hiking cycle) tends to be volatile though, usually for 3-6 months.
You only want to get worried when bull flatteners happen, which indicate a late and waning business cycle.
WSG
PS: Investopedia's explanation of flatteners & steepeners got it mixed up when it comes to stock market & economy. E.g. when a bull steepener occurs, the economy is already slowing down significantly & the stock market likely in a bear, unlike the optimistic economy & stock market that Investopedia alludes to.
@Matilah,
ReplyDeleteWith regards to the "early phase of economy & business cycle", you can really feel the change in atmosphere here in Singapore.
I think 95% of cylinders will be pumping full blast by this April.
It's definitely stronger in the US where people & companies are moving from pandemic to endemic, as seen emphatically in their 4Q GDP just out tonight.
WSG
That's why US desperately need a war with either Russia, China or Iran.
ReplyDeleteIn the past, wars help to shore up US faltering finanaces.
@ Anonymouse
ReplyDeleteRe: Uranium. As I said, I'm out of the trade. Made out ok with URA & URMN.
With indexes, I'm agnostic about the direction. I follow the trend, going short if necessary. I only short indexes, never individual stocks because that's too dangerous...to me anyway. I'm willing to buy puts but only if they're cheap, out of the money and offer (statistically) good risk-reward. Heads, I WIN, Tails, I don't lose much..
One thing about markets is that they offer MANY WAYS to express your hypotheses. I'm out of all the energy plays...green and fossil fuel. Once everyone is talking about something, most of the for and against opinion is already priced in, so I get out. You have to catch trends early and ride "the meat" of the trend, like I did with $GUSH the 3x oil bull.
@ WSG
I'm not a fan of offshore accounts. Too complicated, and there are significant "Black Swan" risks. I prefer to be "clean and upfront", pay the tax---and complain about it, but pay it anyway. π€·♀️
To me, Singapore and Australia are places I know well. I have properties in both. COVID has been a gift from heaven...I managed to Hantam the tenants 15-20% rental increase πͺ which I put into crypto. So I'll stay with my long-proven plan of taking whatever advantage from "the best of 2 worlds", which has served me well for over 4 decades.
I don't care too much about business cycles or analyst's reports. I'm very much data driven (my mentor is a quant). I find too much commentary adds to the "noise" and can skew the mind to a particular "world view", something I struggle to try and avoid as much as possible, and just pay attention to what the raw data says. As Joel Greenblatt says "You don't just get paid to take risk. You get paid to 'Do Your Homework'" ππ»π
Being titled toward quantitative methods, I consider volatility to be a very much under appreciated asset class. In fact, I know some quants who think that volatility is THE ONLY asset class. I'm not there yet, but I feel there's some "meat" there, and I like eating meat. π€π»
Cheers, good fortune, and happy sailing!
Self-claimed simple man hunting fortune to enrich oneself.
ReplyDeleteSimple indeed old man.
@Matilah,
ReplyDeleteGreat points. I do like quant based, though many tend to be more short term trading.
I've cut down a lot of trading since 2013 & just try to maintain a bigger core portion in broad risk assets, like s&p500 or msci global. Then make tactical allocations with the other portions e.g. war stocks, tech, infrastructure, commodities, reits, biotech, etc.
Over the next 4-5 years, many people could do worse than simply having 50% in VOO or CSPX, and the other 50% to express their convictions, whether in cryptos or countries or sectors or SGD or whatever.
In fact most people should probably keep the other 50% in cash, if for no other reason than to keep them from freaking out & selling whenever there's a market correction. Usually at the bottom.
WSG
@ WSG
ReplyDeleteExactly. If dun wanna do any "homework" just whack it into "safety", cheap and good index/ sector ETFs like Vanguard, DCA regularly, reinvest the dividends, and compound the sucker.
In the F.I.R.E (Financially Independent, Retire Early) movement, many smart disciplined kids are retiring in their 30s and 40s from the "simple" process of spending very little to live, and investing those massive savings with safety in low-cost index funds.
As you say, you can "juice" the returns by "tactical allocations" to higher beta, more volatile and possibly'risky" plays.