Detroit City was one of the richest American city in the 60s and 70s.
Ford, GM and Chrysler made it their homes and provided hundreds of
thousands of well paying jobs to create a rich middle class of Americans
driving ultra big cars and tearing down the highways with petrol
costing only a few cents. What a good life.
Detroit has just declared bankrupt with a debt of US$18b and unable to
pay. I thought this is too small an amount for bankruptcy. Maybe Temasek
or GIC should pay for it and buy over the City. The automobile industry
was long gone, the houses and factories left vacant to rot. Two main
factors contributed to the fall of a one time rich and prosperous city.
It happened.
The first is high wages. Japan took over and sold cheap Japanese cars to
replace the American hunks. Cheaper Japanese labour and even cheaper
labours elsewhere just made the American workers not competitive with
their high wages.
The second factor was debt. The city incurred huge debt that it could
not repay without the big industrial base supporting it. The demand for
housing fell when jobs disappeared and the population shifted out. And
very likely many homes were just abandoned or disposed off under fire
sales.
Singapore will never be another Detroit on these two factors alone. We
don’t have overpriced Singaporean workers. We only have overpriced govt
and this is unlikely to bankrupt the City like Detroit. If there are
overpriced workers, and if they are not competitive, they can easily be
replaced by cheaper foreign workers all the way to top management level.
So Singapore is safe. Not sure about the fate of Singapore workers.
As for debt, Singapore has very big debt, among the highest in the
world. But the debt is being dissipated by several schemes. Whatever the
Govt owes to the people through the CPF saving schemes, a large part
has been redeemed through selling exorbitant priced public flats back to
the people. And whatever still owed to the people, the minimum sum
schemes will ensure that there is very little chance of the need to pay
back for at least the next 20 or 30 years. And if the minimum sums can
keep spiraling up to a million or two or more, then there is really no
need to pay back at all, or at very minimum sum that will be very
bearable.
The Singapore Govt thus will have no debt despite owing a lot of money
to the people through the CPF savings scheme. All the debt is either
redeemed or deferred to perpetuity, to till the cow comes home.
The only debt is incurred by the people through expensive housing and
cars and high medical bills. The state is debt free and will not be
another Detroit. The State or City of Singapore will always be rich,
with free supply of cheap labour and with the Singaporeans funding the
debt through their life savings.
If Singapore had not become a Detroit by now, I think it will forever not become a Detroit.
ReplyDeleteJust as if WP is still not ready to be govt by now, I think it will forever not be ready.
If you still have not become a CEO by now after working for 20 years, I think you will forever not become a CEO.
What do you all think?
I think there are exceptions.
ReplyDeleteSouth African Nelson Mandela was jailed for 27 years from 1962 to 1990. He later became President of South Africa from 1994 to 1999.
I hope there are also exceptions for Sinkieland.
But maybe Nelson Mandela have ambition to be President.
ReplyDeleteDoes WP Low TK has ambition to be PM?
Or which non PAP Sinkie has ambition to be PM?
RB, you are right. Sinkapore will never be bankrupted, in debt or with high labor cost. We have excellent policies to deal with that. Namely the big hdb vacuum cleaner and if sucking not strong enough, we have the minimum sum scheme plus the high medical, education, Coe, erp, gst and whatever that guaranteed to suck you dry.
ReplyDeleteAs for labor cost, other than the expensive political labor cost, the rest we can import from all over the world.
I am glad that we will never be another Detroit, thanks to our talented policy makers. Sinkies are just kpkb everyday without realizing how lucky they are. Knn, in fairy tale land still don't know. Not grateful right Tio Bo?
redbean
ReplyDeleteI salute your financial acumen.
Nobody wants Detroit; just too bad.
ReplyDeleteAs for Sin, foreign tycoons are ever ready to seek safe haven for their fortunes here with many making this tiny rocks for their personal safeties. They need lots of locals to service them day and night, so in some sense, they are creating jobs for Sinkies.
The foreign settlers will need cleaners, amahs, baby and oldie care givers, hospitality attendants and vice crew. Can You see?
Where can go bankrupt one!
It is true
ReplyDeleteand
You can
see
yourself.
Foreigners
will save
Sinkies.
Without
foreigners
Sin kaput
and
Sinkies die.
It is true
ReplyDeleteand
You can
see
yourself.
Foreigners
will save
PAPigs.
Without
foreigners
Lee dynasty kaput
and
PAPigs die.
As long as you don't chase the money capital away, and the productive people who best use that capital, Singapore will continue to prosper.
ReplyDeleteIf not, then Singapore will die worse than Detroit.
Detroit deserves to be in the present condition. No one to blame but themselves.
There is humongous piece of rock in the Imperial Garden in Beijing, called the Prodigal's Rock. Look up the story of this piece of beautiful rock, maybe then you'll come to see the folly of the indecently rich, with their ill gotten wealth and how they blow away the family fortune.
ReplyDeleteHow can Singapore go the way of Detroit when it is so good at making money! GIC reports steady 4% real returns. Another big fat bonus for its directors!
ReplyDeleteIndians under the bed.
ReplyDeleteHi guys, let's avoid racist comments ok. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteHi mr chua, detroit is bankrupt. A local co is selling low cost buy to let houses in detroit for US $ 35K.with guaranteed returns of 45% in 3 years. Is it a risky investment? Any advice?
ReplyDeleteI would stay far away from Detroit properties. There's a reason why it is cheap. And sometimes, cheap always stays cheap.
ReplyDeleteHow do they give 45% rental guarantee? Simple, mark up the selling price, which means effectively you are paying the guaranteed return to yourself...
Thank you anon2.52. The co referred to is midas development corp rather convincing and tempting with such returns. As you know, the little we get from fd savings is so miserable. Will think it over.
ReplyDeleteDon't throw good money after bad money. It would be a different matter if GIC or Temasek buy up the whole city, inject funds, businesses into it as another Jurong Industrial estate run by JTC. But this is not possible.
ReplyDeleteThe experience of many Sinkie investors overseas is that if they have not control over the properties and leaving it to strangers to manage, it is like setting themselves up as an ATM, providing free cash to strangers.
Thanks redbean. Googled midas corp , a property developer in kenya.
ReplyDeletekenya?
ReplyDeleteIsn't that near nigeria, where olam originated?
Anon 8.38: Temasek is investing in Iskandar. But it's a little too late to go in now unless u have very strong holding power. Developers make all the money and leave investors high and dry. Early investors are up 50-100% already.
ReplyDeleteI've found another alternative place to park money, but am not here to sell anything.
RB,
ReplyDeleteYou are spot on! You're brilliant. Thks for reminding us.