You know, it is so funny that all the highly qualified CEOs, analysts and trend advisors of all the big ICE vehicle makers in the USA and EU did not know or realized that China was going to eat their lunch, with EVs that was going to flood the market. How long do we think it took China to build up their EV manufacturing logistics under the Western scrutiny, and all the steps China took to secure all the supply chains to set up all those factories? Was it yesterday or the day before?
This was going on right under their noses for years and they choose to ignore the obvious. Now just resorting to crying foul and claiming unfair subsidies is still going to decimate their motor vehicle industry.
Can we believe that all in those years, they just did not have any inkling of what was going on inside China, and that the motor vehicle industry was going through a renaissance, and that China was moving into their turf. What happened to all the intelligence, their spies in China feeding them information about what was going to happen? And all of a sudden China just magically zoomed past them in EV technology and put them in the shade. Can you honestly believe that?
Perhaps it was arrogance of the USA and the West, thinking that cooks and laundrymen cannot achieve anything substantial, or game changing, and can be conveniently pushed aside and ignored as in the distant past. That was their biggest mistake and a mistake that they are still ignoring by claiming consistently that China is producing cheap junks and outdated products, and Chinese weapons are inferior to the USA and the West. The USA thinks that keeping up the demonization and things will change for the better for them. They are living on fat hopes.
Anonymous
Japan actually was well aware of the threat from EVs much earlier, with some smaller carmakers favoring moving into EVs but the move was being sabotaged by bigger carmakers betting on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Toyota, the kingpin of the Japanese automakers took the lead, with the blessing of the Japanese Government, and, as you know, other Japanese carmakers had to fall in line.
ReplyDeleteThe main reason for Japanese automakers choosing hydrogen fuel cell development, as I understand, was because Japan knew that China had monopolistic control of the raw materials for batteries, which Japan did not have, and Japan was afraid of facing the Chinese leverage in that sector. Japan therefore betted on hydrogen fuel cell vehicle development. That was how Japan lost the edge in EVs.
The USA on the other hand was still arrogantly fighting the introduction of EVs as recently as Trump's first term presidency. Then he was even reported to have threatened to punish buyers of EVs. Trump is a fan of fossil fuel extraction and expanded fracking during his term. He even claimed that climate change is a hoax. Tesla was into building EVs, and it is turning into a tale of 'strange bedfellows' that Elon Musk had supported Trump's election campaign with his US$270 million contribution. Let us see how this is going to play out.
Today, Honda and Nissan are discussing merger to fight the EV battle. Both are now losing big money, and they assume that coming together will give them a better chance of survival. Mitsubishi is also figuring in the merger. Mergers seldom achieve much success as different ways and systems do not always fit well together but let us wait and see. Will two negatives make a positive? I am not too sure.
Stellantis is one example of mergers that can still run into problems and is not doing well at all. Volkswagen is another grouping of big mergers, having big problems and closing factories. Are these not lessons to be learnt? Got eyes no see says Virgo.