The way I look at it, the USA is actually clueless as to
how to deal with China's rise. Trade wars are not easy to win as Trump
gloated. Tariffs are counterproductive for sure. Sanctions on technology
will make China more self-reliant and bad for business for USA,
Japanese and South Korean chipmakers. Who will be the winners and who
the losers are not yet decided, and too early to gloat about easy to
win.
Trump had been subsidizing USA farmers when China retaliated
against USA agriculture like soya beans during his first term. Now
China has found alternative sources for soya beans like Brazil and
Russia, which means that China no longer needs to buy from USA farmers,
making those subsidies futile. How easy is winning trade wars for Trump
is something that has never materialized.
As we go along, the
USA had been throwing subsidies to attract chip makers to set up base in
USA, with Biden just carrying on the same self-defeating policies
initiated by Trump during his first term. When China becomes
self-reliant on chips, what will become of all the subsidies thrown at
the semiconductor industry? The same as what happens with farmers now.
Trump's
tariff threat against Mexico is backfiring even before its
implementation. He had been called out for lying and even threatened by
the Mexican leader twice already. Trump's ego has been badly bruised by a
non other than a woman. Will he be bragging about easily winning the
tariff war? I will not at all be surprised.
Anonymous
The sanctions war by the USA and EU killed the European economy. This was the unintended (or should I say intended) consequence of using the modus operandi of the one-trick pony trying to control the world with sanctions that they had been using for more than half a century, since the rise of the US$ hegemony after WW2. That trick no longer works and is backfiring on Europe. Countries have learnt how to navigate around those sanctions and even profited from it.
ReplyDeleteNow, it is all about threatening to impose tariffs on the rest of the world, not just against China. The USA does not seem to realize that there is now another trading bloc rising within BRICS and already functioning under the radar, which members and partners can rely on. Tariffs will fail faster than sanctions and become toothless in no time.
In spite of the technology war, China is not collapsing. In fact, China is de-risking itself from Western technology control by going for self-dependency. China has vast control and leverage over raw materials, cheap energy and a skilled undiluted Chinese workforce. China is pouring huge resources into research and development within the chip industry and has found much success. This is not the only sector that China is fighting against for domination. China is fighting its battle on may sectors like EV, solar panels, wind turbines and soon the aviation industry.
The USA and the West can continue to gloat about China still about three to five years behind their top-end chip mastery, but soon they will be crying foul about China's overcapacity in high-end chip manufacturing. What humans can achieve, other humans can also achieve in time.
China is now going after Nvidia, probing its monopolistic position. What this is indicating is that China is confident enough to take this step knowing its domestic players are beginning to show their clout.
Let the USA and the West continue to rest on their laurels about being still in front and China still chasing for glory. When the shit hits the fan, we shall see the fun.
I like the blowback today, after Gordon Chang started his China collapsing rhetoric and the Western MSM and social media toadies jumped on the bandwagon and started singing the chorus, for twenty-three long years and being extended on a yearly basis.
ReplyDeleteChina is going to outlive Gordon Chang, who will not even see his favorite pre-occupation come to fruition. Some of those on his bandwagon may even be collapsing themselves as of now.
Off topic:
ReplyDeleteWhy does Netanyahu not pardon himself over corruption charges, taking a leaf from Biden. Some are already saying that Trump will pardon himself when he assumes office over his hush money conviction.
What about Yoon Suk Yeol, who already succeeded in a second coup of escaping impeachment, provisionally of course. His defense minister is taking the rap on his behalf.
Welcome to a whole new world order, of leaders pardoning themselves and their siblings and cronies.
Democracy really works!
DeleteYou know, it is so funny that all the highly qualified CEOs, analysts and trend advisors of all the big ICE vehicle makers in the USA and EU did not know or realized that China was going to eat their lunch, with EVs that was going to flood the market. How long do we think it took China to build up their EV manufacturing logistics under the Western scrutiny, and all the steps China took to secure all the supply chains to set up all those factories? Was it yesterday or the day before?
ReplyDeleteThis was going on right under their noses for years and they choose to ignore the obvious. Now just resorting to crying foul and claiming unfair subsidies is still going to decimate their motor vehicle industry.
Can we believe that all in those years, they just did not have any inkling of what was going on inside China, and that the motor vehicle industry was going through a renaissance, and that China was moving into their turf. What happened to all the intelligence, their spies in China feeding them information about what was going to happen? And all of a sudden China just magically zoomed past them in EV technology and put them in the shade. Can you honestly believe that?
Perhaps it was arrogance of the USA and the West, thinking that cooks and laundrymen cannot achieve anything substantial, or game changing, and can be conveniently pushed aside and ignored as in the distant past. That was their biggest mistake and a mistake that they are still ignoring by claiming consistently that China is producing cheap junks and outdated products, and Chinese weapons are inferior to the USA and the West. The USA thinks that keeping up the demonization and things will change for the better for them. They are living on fat hopes.
You are giving Trump too much credit regarding his knowledge of how tariffs work. He may think he knows the tariff trick, and thinks it is easy to impose to harm others.
ReplyDeleteThe real problem is he does not even know how it works and what are the consequence. Who is he really punishing is a mystery to him. Just gloating about tariffs imposition is not the ends all and done all. He really believes that all USA problems will be solved in his simple warped mind.