In
the shadow of the protracted conflict in Ukraine, the administration of
U.S. President Joe Biden has made an inconspicuous but substantial
shift in its policy toward China.
An examination of recent trips
by several cabinet members suggests the administration is having trouble
formulating a consistent global security strategy.
It is evident
that the Biden administration decided it was necessary to diffuse the
tensions that escalated in February when the U.S. Air Force shot down an
alleged Chinese reconnaissance balloon that had traversed the
continental U.S.
It may be that Washington felt taking a low-key
diplomatic approach would help in pressing China not to cooperate with
Russia's war effort in Ukraine. But given growing signs that the war
still has a long way to run, and that it will continue to require
significant fiscal and military resources, it seems the U.S. has decided
now to seek to secure at least China's benevolent neutrality in
relation to the confrontation with Moscow.
In May, National
Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met in Vienna with Chinese Politburo
member Wang Yi, who last month returned to role of foreign minister, for
some 10 hours of "candid, in-depth, substantive and constructive
discussions," in the words of a senior administration spokesperson. In
June, Secretary of State Antony Blinken met in Beijing with Wang and
Chinese President Xi Jinping for another five hours of "candid and
constructive" talks.
The atmosphere of the Beijing talks was
captured symbolically in much-circulated photographs in which Xi is
seated at the head of a meeting table, while Blinken is seated on the
side of the table, positioned as a dutiful listener.
America's
top diplomat was compelled to go to Beijing and negotiate from a
position of weakness due to the strategic circumstances that Washington
faces. In short, the lavish military aid that Washington has provided to
Kyiv to sustain its fight against Russia has severely undermined U.S.
military preparedness.
During the Cold War, U.S. military
hegemony presupposed Washington's possession of sufficient military
prowess to simultaneously dominate the three geostrategically vital
regions of Western Europe, the Middle East and Northeast Asia. In
effect, this meant a capability for full-power projection for two
concurrent major regional conflicts while holding position in a limited
regional conflict on a third front.
Once the Cold War was over, the U.S. collected a peace dividend by
cutting its defense budget, then focusing on counterinsurgency
operations for its global war on terrorism. Across the administrations
of Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, the U.S. military went
from being able to fight two and a half regional wars at a time, to
two, then one and a half, and finally only one. "America is not the
world's policeman," Obama said in 2013.
China and Russia,
Washington's great-power competitors, continued meanwhile to invest in
high-end arms. But U.S. capacity to fight a regional war has focused on
deterring and potentially defeating armed aggression by China, America's
only coequal. With less military power to deploy, the U.S. has had to
make maximum use of other tools, including diplomatic, economic and
intelligence instruments.
Now the war in Ukraine is consuming
vast amounts of U.S. military and financial resources, reflecting a
grand misordering of priorities. Most probably, it will take at least
five years to rebuild the necessary munition stocks and logistics for a
potential major regional conflict with China over Taiwan.
No
wonder the Biden administration is seeking to strike a detente with
China. The administration has to buy time by reorienting from
full-fledged confrontation to re-engagement and de-risking.
But
Washington's about-face constitutes an act of appeasement, as
underscored by the fact that Beijing has not pulled back from any of its
aggressive provocations. Instead, it has continued to launch
cyberattacks, menace Taiwan and restrict exports of strategic minerals.
To
make matters worse, the Biden administration's Middle East policy is
straying wildly. Iran's uranium enrichment is approaching the weapon's
grade level of more than 90%. This will give Israel a strong incentive
to launch a preemptive strike, as it did previously in Iraq and Syria.
In
May, Sullivan said the Biden administration would endorse Israel's
"freedom of military action." This stance risks fueling a regionwide war
that would inevitably draw in the U.S.
The U.S. badly needs to
sit back and take stock of the overall global situation. Ukraine should
not be the primary determinant of U.S. foreign and security policy. The
Biden administration should recover a sense of prudential realism and
shift more attention to Taiwan and Iran while it still has some room to
maneuver.
.Would Beijing bite the USA's desire to strike a detente with China? The
USA had been saying one thing but doing the exact opposite many a time,
and China knows perfectly well that the USA cannot be trusted and is
never to be trusted.
Once the USA gets back on its footing of
rebuilding its depleted military stockpile and improving its financial
resources after the Ukraine War, it will certainly revert to its old
stance of dictating and still expecting China to be playing second
fiddle to its interest. Those neo-Cons in the establishment will make
sure the same old anti-China stance continues to be played according to
the their playbook, whoever sits in the White House. Staying on as the
unipolar superpower is always in its mindset, and it will never be
content to live with being second or even sharing the superpower title
in a multipolar world.
For all intents and purposes, China and
Russia are perfectly serious in de-dollarisation, having sold the idea
to so many Global South countries, that going back to the old days of
further succumbing to probable sanctions under the US$ hegemony once
again, will be a great misfortune and let down to the other BRICS
countries, not to mention China losing its credibility. That is unlikely
to happen.
With Taiwan's return to China in the crosshairs of
USA/China relations, and the USA continuing to use Taiwan as a pawn to
antagonise China on and off, the issues between China and USA will be
difficult to resolve.
Anonymous
https://youtu.be/KLXTqDtHAgc
ReplyDeleteChina should NOT fall into the Scums of the Earth, i.e. the Americunts's traps.
The above shown their bad odours.
UAssA refuses to repatriate GOLD.
Hello, all already gone. Gone with the wind.
They had already stolen all your Dafts GOLD.
Another US companies lay off 200,000 workers to cope with China's reduction in imports of 45.5 billion chips.
The Americunts are just pretending to be affiable and nic'e in Frenchie word now they are in deep shits.
Now the right time to kill them off economically.
The Rest of the World will sue them for their return of their LOST gold.
Also a Shits Times regurgitated report "US to restrict investments in China over national security threats"
DeleteHello who is threatening who?
One hand wants to shake hand and the other hand wants to poke your arsehole
https://youtu.be/PYMsQpBRH8w
ReplyDeleteLay off of 200,000 roam the streets and sleep in the streets workers.
Heavens had awoken to their Crimes against Humanity.
What re-engagement is the USA talking about when Biden is putting in place more restrictions on USA investments in China, targeting sensitive sectors of technology, thereby indicating that it is upping sanctions against China in the technology sector again, hyping on 'national security issues'.
ReplyDeleteSuffice to say, China should also respond to that tit by retaliating with a tat, by selling off its total Treasury holdings, not to talk about being persuaded to buy more, because it is a 'national security issue' for China, clear and unambiguous. But don't hold your breath, waiting for an immediate response, because China needs time to calibrate its retaliation where it will hurt most when that happens.
What Biden is doing by continuously escalating the tech war, is basically to shore up his support for his re-election in 2024. What else can he do as this is the only sector that the USA has an advantage against China? The Chips war is unravelling, as otherwise why is there a need to go further, knowing that China will retaliate. The fallout from Intel's warning about scrapping plans to build the biggest chip foundry in the USA took a hit on Biden's support base, and he is desperate to find other rhetorics to shore up his standing. The question is - is it going to hit China hard, or going to backfire as always?
Take those sanctions against Russia for example, which were gloated to be all about trying to cut off any and all financial support for Russia's Ukraine War funding. The USA itself, meanwhile, under the surface, still buying 15% of its uranium requirements from Russia, deviously and discreetly supporting Russia to the tune of US$1 billion a year, and obviously sabotaging, in no uncertain terms, the sanctions that other countries are foolishly trying to enforce and suffering for it.
On another recent topic, Mongolia is reported to be gifting 31 million tons of rare earth to the USA to extract. Now, first question is who is going to invest in Mongolia to extract those ores? Next question is who is going to set up expensive facilities in Mongolia to refine those ores? Even the USA needs China to refine rare earth ores for them, and China is not that foolish to do it for Mongolia.
Rare earths are actually not rare and can be found everywhere around the world. Australia and India are among the top eight countries with substantial reserves, which could be more easily secured than in such a place as Mongolia. This announcement is more like making a mountain out of a molehill, without taking into account the long journey those ores have to take to become usable final products. Moreover the infrastructures like roads, ports and rails are not ideal for such an activity in Mongolia.
And let me once again put it in perspective about countries investing in rare earth refining facilities. They can pour all their fortunes into such ventures, but there is always the threat that all those investments could end up in smoke, as and when China chooses to flood the market with cheaper Gallium and Germanium to kill them off. The fact that China controls so much rare earth reserves, and is simultaneously controlling 60% of global refining facilities, there is a lot that China can do that others do not have the luxury of doing.
We should not give any credit to Biden. Biden is just a walking zombie. He can't think, unable to think, no time to think. Everything is being done for him by the neocons. He just parrot or read whatever is prepared for him.
ReplyDeleteBiden would be lucky if the neocons were strategic thinkers. If they were just a bunch of clowns, then Biden would end up as the biggest clown and taking full responsibility and blame for their childish schemes.