With just 3 candidates in Tharman, Ng Kok Song an George Goh, the numerical odds are already in favour of Tharman. The Chinese votes are likely to be splitted equally among the three candidates while the Indian and Malay votes would be more favourable to Tharman, especially the Indian votes. In order for Kok Song or George to beat Tharman, one of them must stand out clearly as the better man. At this moment, both were just another candidate to the voters. So, if the votes are splitted more or less equally between them, Tharman would win hands down.
The latest, Tan Kin Lian has shown interest in the race. Once Tan Kin Lian submits in his papers, the race is as good as ended with Tharman the outright winner. The same explanation above would mean that the Chinese votes would be greatly diluted and shared by the 3 Chinese candidates while Tharman would continue to get the same share of Chinese, Malay and Indian votes.
It does not need rocket science to figure out the odds with these 4 candidates. If there is anyone that stands up in the crowd of 4, it has to be Tharman. And with Kin Lian joining the fray to dilute the Chinese votes, none of them stand a whisper of a chance to get near to Tharman. Kin Lian may lose his deposit a second time. I am wondering what is his motivation to want to join the race. He is a smart man and should know his chances. In the last PE, he and Jee Say were seen as the vote spoilers that deprived Cheng Bock from winning. His role in this election would not be any different.
In the last PE, it was 3 Tans against Tony Tan. Now it is 3 Chinese candidates against Tharman. How to win? This this another case of stupidity has no cure. What is the purpose of joining the race when the chance is so slim? The PE is not a party to join and get high and merry, to be seen or to bolster once ego.
Tharman's supporters can start to celebrate and pop the champagne once Kin Lian's nomination paper is in. Kok Song and George can also forget about their chances of winning against Tharman when this happens. The odds are so obvious, nothing complicated, no surprises. Everyone can see it. Maybe Kin Lian is waiting for a surprise winning from heaven. Only a miracle can change the fate of Tharman and turn him away from the Istana.
There should be a fairer system as practised in most democracies. If none the the candidates secure a 50% plus one vote, the top 2 candidates go to a second round of contest.
ReplyDeleteOf course, the gov wouldn't change the current rule given that they even came out with the ridiculous anti democractic Reserved Elected Presidency just so their own candidate win.
Many believe one of the Chinese candidates has been thrown in to split the 'opposition votes.
And we could end up with the mockery of another minority elected 35% president.
This latest entrant will be approved for sure, since he qualified the previous time, to dilute the votes as before. He lost his deposit the last time he tried and yet had the audacity to try a second time. Perhaps claimable for his service? Understand what I mean? Truly laughable. He thinks he is still popular and will be a people's President like Wee Kim Wee. What a joke!
ReplyDeleteThe only possible motive for the latest entrant is to tell us - tan (wait).
ReplyDeleteAfter four tans, and having no choice but to elect one 'tan' several years ago, Singaporeans ought to get the big picture.
As to who can beat 'Tha man' this time, the answer is - tan ku ku.
Unless heavenly intervention happens. But we never know.
It is better for Tan Kin Lian to withdraw from the contest as he said he would if there is no walk over for Tharman. With four in the race it's a sure win for Tharman, although not the resounding victory he and the PAP wish.
ReplyDeleteTKL may be a PAP mole, his role is to capture the opposition voters who voted for TJY in 2011 PE. The opposition voters would be smarter now and will vote the 2nd ranking candidates, even linked to PAP. TKL should work hard to be ranked PAP2. Maybe he got a chances, to be president.
ReplyDeleteHe was a PAP motivator, in Marine Parade I think, but not invited for tea sessions. Lost his role within the PAP, and even lost his NTUC Income CEO position. Now just a mole model, and got clobbered in 2011 PE. No chance for him as PE, just a spoiler again this time round.
ReplyDeleteWe should all root for George Goh. NKS was an establishment figure and even been praised by LKY. As a late entry to the contest and I suspect he is thrown in to sabotage George's chances.
ReplyDeleteAlso, we shouldn't go hard on Tan Kin Lian's potential entry. He's saying if both Chinese candidates are disqualified, he would stand to ensure there is not another walkover president.
If NKS and Goh are PAP's men, they will not be disqualified. The same strategy is to have many candidates to split votes. If Tan is sincere as a backup, he should withdraw once the candidates are approved to run instead of vote splitting like he did before. Hope his ego did not blind his judgment.
ReplyDeleteIf GG and NKS are disqualified, what does TKL hope to achieve? Walkover or not, the result comes to the same. Please do not create unnecessary inconvenience to oldies like me having to go to the polling station for nothing.
ReplyDeleteMoreover, according to Channel News America, TKL may not necessarily be successful in his application to stand, dunno for whatever reasons which is rather puzzling. If he could stand in 2011, what has suddenly been changed to make him unsuitable in 2023?
The strategy for GG, TKL and NKS is to fight for the 2nd ranking standing. Now Opposition and independent voters got experience from the PE2011. They're about 30%, of them. Their mind set are to spiked PAP by choosing the lesser PAP candidates. After all there are no avaliable real Opposition candidates to choose from.
ReplyDeleteTKL is an excellent mathematicians. He had PE experience in 2011, all other candidates except Tharman had election experience. TKL may have may easily ranked no 2. There is a possibility TKL may get elected.
ReplyDeleteTar Man. TKL, Georgie all no chance lah.
ReplyDeleteNg Kok Siong chiak!
Yersterday Big Sweep and 4D First Prize out 75-45 which is his and his Fiancee lah
First Omen.
Many strikes will vote for him.
Wah many put last four 7545 for BS be million hair $2.3M ah.
Better than GST and AP $700.00 lah.
Cheers
https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/workplace-bullying-hierarchies-insecure-employees-2225736
ReplyDeleteThis is what's been happening in Sinking Land where there are so many Mental and Sucidie Cases.
The useless Ministers especially the MOM and also their Unions NTUsless are sleeping.
https://youtu.be/Jzus4dwqdWs
ReplyDelete