Presidential Election - A black swan event in the making

SINGAPORE: Former GIC chief investment officer Ng Kok Song, former NTUC Income chief executive Tan Kin Lian and former Senior Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam have qualified as candidates for Singapore's Presidential Election, the Elections Department (ELD) announced on Friday (Aug 18). 

Businessman George Goh was however unsuccessful in his application for a Certificate of Eligibility... CNA 18 Aug 23

The most dreaded 4 corners fight is not going to happen. Still, a 3 corner fight is not going to do much to prevent Tharman from becoming the next PR in the Istana. Both Ng Kok Song and Tan Kin Lian are the hopefuls, more like the dark horses trying their luck against hot favourite Tharman. It would take many accidents and unexpected events, and many ifs for either one to cause an upset.

Between Kok Song and Kin Lian, it is difficult to say who has a better edge to come up against Tharman. Kok Song is totally new in the ring. Kin Lian has been around, and was a contestant in the last EP, and for losing his deposit. This puts his chances not too favourable to win. But the game has changed.

Beating Tharman is the game. It is about putting someone outside the PAP as the EP.  By now, everything else, qualification, popularity, experience, likeable etc etc, is not important. It is with the PAP or against the PAP. Both Kok Song and Kin Lian were part of the establishment and were closely related to the PAP in one way or another except being a party member. This point is not disclosed and could be proven otherwise. Who then would the people choose to win in this game? 

Other than the PAP issue, there are several other factors that may affect the voters' choice. One is ethnicity of the EP. Some may be saying that Nathan had two terms, Tony Tan one term, Halimah also has one term, so they are looking for a Chinese turn now. If Tharman were to win, he would serve another 6 years. This means that for a 30 year period, the Indians would be president for 18 years, ie equivalent of 3 Indians, 1 Chinese and 1 Malay presidents. Some may consider Halimah as Indian according to her IC, so the Indians' share would be 24 years and Chinese 6 years. But this way of looking at ethnicity is controversial.

The voters are left with 2 candidates against a PAP candidate and they have to choose one in a choice of the devil and the deep blue sea. If the votes are evenly split between the two, it is unlikely anyone would voluntarily opt out unless by an act of God, Tharman would win. Would the voters be wise enough, assuming that they want someone outside the PAP, would they be able to think and pick the same candidate, one from the two, and throw in everything for their chosen candidate? This is no easy task.

The opposition camp is closing ranks and has been championing for Kin Lian, and calling the people to vote for him. How are they going to make this happen without proper rallies and the communication channels to do so?

If Kin Lian, or even Kok Song were to win, Kin Lian, for losing his deposit in the last EP, would be the biggest come back of all time, the biggest upset to happen. It is almost unthinkable as everything is in favour of Tharman.

Can the impossible really happen? Are the forces for a non PAP candidate be so strong, and the people somehow manage to pick the same choiced candidate, to make the impossible happen? Can 1 Sep be a day for a black swan event?

PS. This is my post for Sat. Leaving early morning for a durian tour in Johore.