BRI - What if India decides to join

 India refused to join BRI using Pakistan as an excuse, not wanting the route traversing India to go through Pakistan. China's plan was to build roads and rails cutting through India from Myanmar, through Pakistan to Iran and onwards to the Middle East.

What if India turnaround and tell China it is willing to join the BRI? Who is going to build the roads and rails in India? Would China dare to build the roads and rails for high speed trains to pass through India? Given the experience of Japan's high speed train project in India, and the experience of Xiaomi and other Chinese companies in India, unless India intends to build its own road and rails, it is questionable if China would want to offer to build them. This is as good as China voluntarily offer to build high speed trains for India in India that it now sees as a treacherous place to do business.

For BRI, China is very tempted to build rails and roads in India. It was innocent enough to bid for the Indian high speed train, but with the grace of providence, ended in the hands of Japan, a dear friend of India. Now the cunning Japanese and sneaky Indians are fighting it out to get the best out of this bizarre high speed train project that would never see daylight in another 100 years. What had happened or is happening in this project is a good lesson for China. 

India's modus operandi is to hang a big carrot to lure an innocent party into India, with promises of great potential for growth. It is true that India looks like a great potential for development and to make profits from investment. The reality is a nightmare once an investor stepped into India and sank in the money. It would become a pool of quicksand, never able to pull out alive. The initial contract is only a beginning. It would become an unending contract of changes and amendments once the investors have put in enough money and pulling out of the deal would mean big losses. India would make all kinds of demands outside and above the contracts making it very unbearable and unacceptable for the investors. Japan is getting a big taste of the Indian medicine. The investor would now become the prey to be eaten alive by India. 

This is like the proverbial story of pretending to be a pig awaiting to eat the tiger. Some third world countries also think this is a good tactic to learn from India. After a major project is near completion, or the investors cannot pull out anymore, make all kinds of unreasonable demands to rip the investor apart. This kind of childish ploy can be used only once. As once used, the credibility of the party is gone forever. Xiaomi and several Chinese companies are good examples. They thought with goodwill and sincerity, they could invest in India on a win win formula. But a snake is a snake. Trusting a snake must be prepared to be bitten by the snake. They asked for it.

It may be a bit late. But after learning this bitter and painful lesson, all Chinese companies are packing up to leave India. No more business in India or with India, unless it is on COD basis. You can only cheat a person once. Caveat, there are willing suckers that would want to be cheated over and over again, but pretend that all is well, not cheated, never been cheated, and will make money in the long, long run, when everyone involved is dead and gone.

So, would China dare to build rails and roads in India for India should India come with a big smile and say it wants to join the BRI? Maybe, on COD terms, cash out front, like BYD.  Building such infrastructure without collecting money first, worse, lending money to India, is unimaginably stupid to do so. Not just to India, but to unreliable and unpredictable third world countries. The stupid would always part with their money and wealth very quickly, if they choose to be stupid not to learn from the painful lessons of others.

With the attitude and unreliable behaviour of India, India would never be invited to join the BRI again. It was sheer good luck that India chose not to be in. Nothing is lost without India's participation in BRI.